Nigeria’s oil revenue dropped sharply by 22 percent to N3.9 trillion in the fourth quarter of 2024, highlighting the country’s ongoing struggle to meet fiscal targets amid fluctuating crude production and market volatility.
The News Chronicle gathered that this drop, made clear in the Budget Office of the Federation’s (BOF) Q4 2024 Budget Implementation Report, results in a shortfall of N1.09 trillion against the prorated quarterly budget projection down from N4.62 trillion in the third quarter of 2024. The overall oil revenues came to N3.91 trillion, a 15.5 percent drop. Still, it showed a major rebound from the N1.89 trillion made over the same period in 2023.
Mixed performance across the oil revenue components is shown by a thorough analysis of the report. At N2.18 trillion, revenues from oil and gas were 36% higher than the goal of N1.61 trillion.
While other revenues including pipeline charges and fees more than doubled predictions at N8.79 billion, concessional rents also exceeded estimates to reach N5.59 billion against an expected N2.18 billion. Gas flare fines and trade gains—which had no initial expectations—generated N108.54 billion and N1.22 trillion respectively.
Conversely, major contributors like crude oil and gas sales, petroleum profit taxes, and incidental oil revenues all underperformed. Crude sales reached N335.69 billion, missing the quarterly estimate by 8 percent, while petroleum profit and gas taxes dropped 58 percent below expectations at N1.25 trillion.
The shortfall has renewed concerns about Nigeria’s fiscal stability and heavy dependence on oil to finance government spending. Still, authorities remain confident that petroleum sector reforms under the Petroleum Industry Act (PIA), along with stronger security in the Niger Delta, will enhance stability in coming quarters.
Meanwhile, non-oil revenue offered a silver lining, surging to N4.39 trillion in the same quarter—62 percent above projections—driven by strong growth in company income tax, value-added tax, and customs collections.
