In a conversation as gripping as the political manoeuvres it dissected, Professor Jideofor Adibe, a seasoned scholar of political science and international relations at Nasarawa State University, unpacked the unfolding 2027 electoral intrigues on Channels Television’s flagship programme, Morning Brief, monitored by News Chronicle on Thursday.
Speaking on the recent adoption of the African Democratic Congress (ADC) as a new political vehicle by opposition heavyweights — including former Vice President Atiku Abubakar, ex-Senate President David Mark, and 2023 Labour Party flagbearer Peter Obi — Prof. Adibe described the move as a tactical masterstroke that took the ruling party by surprise.
“They seem to have deployed a strategy of what you can call decoy,” the professor observed, noting that the coalition kept its cards close to its chest to avoid being sabotaged. “Several times we read in the newspapers that the coalition hit the rock — and suddenly, they came with this idea of ADC.”
Though the coalition’s path is far from smooth, Adibe acknowledged their resilience in weathering the early storm. He pointed out the political pedigree of those backing the ADC, describing it as a formidable cast of seasoned political actors.
“David Mark, one of the key executioners of the Babangida coup, a retired Brigadier General and the country’s longest-serving Senate President — at 77, there’s nothing you can use to frighten him,” he stated. He also cited Rauf Aregbesola, “credited with being the brain behind Tinubu losing Osun State,” and Peter Obi, who, despite his “tiny voice and gentle mien,” is known as “Okute,” meaning “rock,” for dismantling political godfathers during his time as Anambra State governor.
“El-Rufai may be polarising, but he’s a man of tremendous courage and technocratic skill,” Adibe added. “Rotimi Amaechi fought the Jonathan government to a standstill.”
Still, the coalition is not without its cracks. Adibe pointed to Dumebi Kachikwu, ADC’s 2023 presidential candidate, who has threatened legal action over what he describes as a hostile takeover. “This is the only thing that can give him a headline,” Adibe remarked bluntly, dismissing the backlash as expected, and suggesting that the ruling All Progressives Congress (APC) might amplify his opposition to destabilise the coalition.
With the political terrain heating up, the professor warned of an impending “hide and seek” between the government and the opposition, a power tussle that could unfold in unpredictable ways. “I do believe the people behind the ADC, the new people, they are not unaware of the fact that it’s not going to be an easy victory,” he said.
When asked about the strategic calculus behind the new coalition — especially with each faction bringing millions of votes from different regions — Prof. Adibe urged caution. “It’s premature to start looking at permutations,” he warned, even as he acknowledged Peter Obi’s growing national clout, especially in the South-South and South-East.
He hinted that multiple coalitions may yet emerge, with political actors keeping their options open. “Don’t forget they started with SDP,” he recalled, referencing a prior political overture by El-Rufai. “Now the SDP is no longer seen as a credible vehicle… they are talking about ADC.”
Prof. Adibe believes the game is still wide open, with cross-party migration and strategic alliances still very much in play. “Politicians hardly show all their hands,” he noted, adding that decisions on power-sharing within the coalition would be shaped by how the APC responds to the unfolding events.
“As happened with the APC, once reverse migration starts, it becomes self-perpetuating,” he noted. “It becomes clear who probably will be given the ticket.”
Switching gears to the political tension in Rivers State, Prof. Adibe weighed in on the fragile truce between Governor Siminalayi Fubara and his predecessor, Nyesom Wike. When asked if the governor had effectively surrendered, the professor did not mince words.
“He was chosen to be governor precisely because he had no nerves,” Adibe said. “It’s very remarkable that all the people who supported him, some sticking out their necks, he literally threw them under the bus.”
Describing the unfolding events as a “humiliation” for the people of Rivers State, Adibe painted a stark picture of a government “ruling by fiat” under what he likened to a “sole administrator.” The professor expressed concern over the silence surrounding key issues like local government control and state resources, suggesting the governor may have sacrificed significant leverage to maintain a tenuous peace.
“This is a guy who said at one point ‘the jungle had matured,’” he recalled. “If you believe in a principle, you’ll fight — even if you lose.”
Adibe also pointed fingers at the central government, implying that political calculations at the federal level may be driving the peace efforts in Rivers. With alleged dwindling support from the North, he said the presidency could be eyeing Rivers as a fresh stronghold.
“If you want to manipulate the votes, you start from the grassroots,” Adibe observed, referencing local government chairmanships as the foundation of electoral influence.
Still, he warned that political humiliation often comes with long-term consequences. “When you hurt people, they have a way of taking revenge in an asymmetric manner,” he noted.
