Good leadership is not measured by how quickly a government acts, but by how wisely it thinks before acting. Every great nation is built not only on power, but on prudence — the ability of leaders to pause, consult, and listen to the unseen minds who safeguard the state. In the modern world, those minds belong to the security and intelligence community.
There is profound wisdom in leaders seeking the counsel of their nation’s security institutions before taking any major policy decision. Such consultations allow government to weigh critical questions:
- Scenario Mapping: If we do X, how will the international community react?
- Perception Analysis: How will our citizens view this action?
- Risk–Benefit Matrix: What are the short- and long-term consequences?
- Timing and Communication: When and how should this policy be announced to avoid backlash?
Governments that make a habit of consulting their experts rarely make grave mistakes.
Nigeria’s Growing Culture of Unilateral Decisions
Recently, I wrote about President Tinubu’s decision to skip the United Nations General Assembly for the second consecutive year — a move that suggested he acted without the counsel of the Ministry of Foreign Affairs (MFA) and the National Intelligence Agency (NIA). These two institutions are constitutionally responsible for advising the president on foreign relations and matters affecting Nigeria’s global image.
Across the world — from Washington to Paris — presidents rarely take such steps without first seeking intelligence briefings and diplomatic assessments. Yet, from all indications, the Tinubu administration appears to have sidelined these critical institutions, entrusting sensitive responsibilities to less appropriate quarters.
Why Security and Intelligence Matter in Policy Thinking
Security and intelligence institutions are not merely tools for gathering secrets or preventing threats. They are the brain centers of strategic analysis and foresight. They provide government with:
- Early warning of risks and emerging threats
- Assessments of how decisions will be perceived by allies and adversaries
- Scenario planning on possible outcomes
- Policy recommendations rooted in facts and classified information
In the United States, for example, the CIA and other agencies provide daily intelligence briefings to the president, mapping out the risks and opportunities of every major action. Similarly, the United Kingdom’s Joint Intelligence Committee (JIC) and France’s DGSE routinely analyze and predict how domestic or foreign decisions may ripple across global politics.
This is why advanced democracies rarely act blindly — every decision is filtered through strategic foresight.
The Presidential Pardon: A Case of Misjudgment
The recent presidential pardon in Nigeria is another decision that appears to have bypassed such critical vetting. It was executed without adequate consultation with the security and intelligence community, and without a rigorous analysis of its moral and political implications.
Had the president sought expert advice, he would likely have been cautioned against pardoning individuals involved in drug-related crimes, or a soldier who armed criminals to kill his comrades, or even a convicted murderer released on the weak premise of needing to care for her children — while countless other mothers with children remain in prison.
Such lapses are not only moral missteps; they are security risks and political errors.
In nations where strategic governance thrives, every major decision — from foreign policy to pardons to military operations — undergoes an intelligence vetting process designed to anticipate consequences and manage public perception.
How Mature Governments Think Before Acting
Before any sensitive decision, responsible governments:
- Consult the National Security Adviser, DSS, NIA, and Ministry of Foreign Affairs
- Request analytical memos outlining domestic and international implications
- Decide on timing, content, and communication based on those assessments
These insights are debated in inter-agency meetings, summarized in classified reports, and condensed into Presidential Briefing Papers.
Far from weakening presidential authority, this process strengthens leadership with wisdom and foresight.
Governments in the U.S., U.K., and France rely heavily on their intelligence and security institutions for deep critical analysis before taking major actions. They use structured councils, scenario forecasting, and written assessments to anticipate risks — not stumble into them.
A Costly Political Mistake
Considering the persistent attacks and allegations the opposition has leveled against President Tinubu — from drug-related accusations to academic controversies — it is clear that these issues have shaped both domestic and global perceptions of his integrity.
By granting controversial pardons, the president has inadvertently handed his critics new ammunition.
In light of his fragile reputation, it was politically and morally unwise to include individuals with tainted pasts in the recent list. Some of those pardoned carry reputational baggage that further damages the image of both the presidency and the country.
Govern Before You Gamble
A government that ignores the counsel of its security and intelligence community does not act from strength, but from impulse.
And a nation governed by impulse will always find itself reacting to crises instead of preventing them.
True leadership listens before it acts, and the wisest governments are those that think before they move, and move only after thinking deeply.
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