In a stunning turnabout of face that left the world panting for breath, United States President Donald Trump had issued an Iran-Israel ceasefire agreement in its entirety last night, an unstable peace from war which had held hostage the Middle East for twelve days.
It was tweeted from the official White House X (formerly Twitter) account by which Trump announced what he terms a phased peace accord. Verbally, Iran would take the first action by calling for a ceasefire, and Israel would do the same twelve hours afterward. After a 24-hour grace period had expired, when both sides had seen each other, the war was technically over.
Trump referred to the pact as a show of Iran and Israel’s leadership, discipline, and diplomacy, praising the two for not seeing through what would have been otherwise a prolonged, disastrous regional war. “Congratulations to all,” Trump tweeted, praising the pact as a major step towards peace. The post set a deadline for the two countries to finish any other military action before the ceasefire.
While there had been doubt about the Iranian response in Tehran, against Washington’s optimism, Iran’s Foreign Minister Seyed Abbas Araghchi had acquiesced to putting the military attack on hold, but would not acquiesce to a formal treaty. It reported in an initial Tuesday report on his website that Iran had not committed to signing any formal ceasefire treaty. He said Iran’s operation was a response and would continue only if Israel stopped its military activities.
But the minister assured that Iranian operations ceased at 4 a.m. local time, stopping ongoing operations. The minister credited Iran’s army with its “patriotism and endurance,” saying it was ready to defend the nation if another provocation were to come.
Though there has been no world reference to enforcers or monitors, the lull in hostilities on both sides seems to be holding so far. Strategists are hoping against hope that the stoppage at present will be the long-sought opportunity for diplomacy to move in and fix what was fast emerging as a free-wheeling regional conflict.
The origin of the conflict is still controversial. Iran claimed that it was defending itself against an Israeli assault; however, Israel insists that its move was defensive and was meant to halt Iranian incursions threatening Israel’s national security. Whoever the aggressor might have been, the conflict soon got out of hand, and expectations of further turmoil in the volatile Middle East dwindled.
Trump, always in abundant hyperbolic diplomatic language, has presented this ceasefire as the height of foreign policy. During his speech, Trump praised the two countries for what he called their “intelligence and strength” and endorsed the agreement as a victory against what was perhaps possible through diplomacy instead of devastation. He was brief in explaining the negotiation paths used. Still, sources indicate that backchannel diplomacy via Qatar and silent diplomacy between Iranian and American envoys were used as controlling means to arrive at the deal.
The global markets took the news in relief. Crude oil prices, which had reached record levels during the war, started crumbling, and investors embraced the peace ushered in by the ceasefire. Political analysts warn, though, that while guns may have stopped speaking temporarily, tensions between the two sworn enemies are hanging themselves.
For now, the world collectively exhales as Iran and Israel retreat from the precipice, at least temporarily. Only time will tell whether this ceasefire ushered in eternal peace or delayed the inevitable war. One thing is certain, however—diplomacy weak and imperfect as it is—is the best weapon to disarm conflicts today.
