This report is from today’s TNC’s Daily Open, our international markets update. TNC Daily Open keeps investors informed on everything they need to know, no matter where they are.
Markets experience cautious optimism—or at least what passes for “optimism” in such strange times—when there are no significant tariff developments from the administration of U.S. President Donald Trump. Following the announcement late Friday of a last-minute exemption for electronics from so-called reciprocal tariffs, there remained leeway for markets to make cautious upward advances on Monday.
White House representatives continue to promote Trump’s economic philosophy on major television networks. The most recent to do so is Kevin Hassett, the director of the National Economic Council, who stated on Fox Business on Monday that the nation would “100% not” have a recession this year.
Customers don’t believe that. A March Federal Reserve survey, which was made public on Monday, is the most recent in a string of consumer surveys that indicate a decline in economic sentiment. Despite White House officials’ efforts to reassure on the latter front, any market gains could only persist as long as tariffs don’t spread further afield and harm the economy.
What To Note Today
Global markets are expanding
A minor rebound in tech companies on announcing a tariff exemption for electronic goods helped U.S. equities rise on Monday. The Dow Jones Industrial Average increased by 0.78%, the S&P 500 by 0.79%, and the Nasdaq Composite by 0.64%. The majority of Asia-Pacific markets saw gains on Tuesday. At opening, India’s Nifty 50 surged more than 2%. Later today, market observers anticipate the release of the nation’s March inflation data. As UBS downgraded its prediction of China’s economic growth in 2025, the country’s CSI 300 plummeted by about 0.3%.
Hassett feels a recession is unlikely
On Monday, Kevin Hassett, the director of the U.S. National Economic Council, stated that “more than 10” nations had offered the United States “very good, amazing” trade deals. Additionally, he stated that there was no possibility of a recession in the United States in 2025. Consumer concerns about inflation, unemployment, and the stock market increased in March, according to a Federal Reserve Bank of New York survey released the same day but completed before April 2.
Zero-day option volatility
The recent wild fluctuations in the stock market can be partially attributed to zero-day-to-expiration options. According to JPMorgan data, trading volume for zero-day options—contracts that expire on the same day they are traded—rose 23% between the beginning of the year and April. In a letter, Maxwell Grinacoff, UBS’ head of U.S. equities derivatives research, stated, “We find that 0DTE (+1DTE) have been instrumental in driving more intraday volatility.”
Nvidia plans to build a supercomputer in the US
Nvidia announced on Monday that it intends to use its manufacturing alliances to manufacture up to $500 billion worth of AI infrastructure in the United States over the following four years. According to a blog post by the chipmaker, Taiwan Semiconductor factories in Phoenix have begun producing their Blackwell AI processors. In addition, Nvidia is constructing factories in Texas to create AI supercomputers, marking the company’s first fully domestic production.
Morgan Stanley on tariffs: “Be ready to be duped”
Morgan Stanley advised investors to be vigilant despite Trump’s recent tariff concessions. In a message to clients headed “Fool Me Once, Shame On You,” the firm’s strategists, Matthew Hornbach, warned investors to expect to be duped many more times. Shame on me, you fooled me twice.
Additional News
According to a CNBC survey, Trump’s tariffs won’t force supply chains back to the United States; businesses will travel the world on cheap tariffs.
According to a recent TNC Supply Chain Survey, the U.S. manufacturing sector will not be the primary beneficiary if China loses some production due to Trump’s tariffs. The Trump administration claims that there would be a boom in reshoring. In contrast, most businesses claim that the cost of reestablishing supply chains might quadruple and that a new global search for low-tariff regimes will instead begin.
Cost was cited by over three-quarters of respondents (74%) as the main deterrent to reshoring production, followed by the difficulty in locating trained workers (21%). According to the report, taxes rank lower among the factors that influence the choice of manufacturing site, despite the Trump administration’s promises of tax breaks for businesses that reintroduce manufacturing.
