The streets of Anambra South are quiet tonight. Not the kind of quiet that means peace — the kind that means something’s about to break. Tomorrow, Saturday, August 16, 2025, 909,744 registered voters will decide who fills the seat left vacant by the late Senator Ifeanyi Ubah. The air is thick with calculation, and every campaign knows it.
The race isn’t short on names. Emmanuel Nwachukwu of APGA, Sir Azuka Okwuosa of APC, Hon. Chuma Nzeribe of Labour Party, and Chris Uba of PDP are the front liners, each with their own weight to throw around. But in politics, weight only counts if you can land the punch.
APGA’s Nwachukwu walks into the ring with the biggest machine in the state — the home-party advantage. The governor’s network, ward captains, and a disciplined structure give him a clean path through Orumba North/South and Aguata. If he can hold those and steal a share of Ekwusigo, he’s on the scoreboard early. Weak spot? Security volatility in areas like Ukpor could choke turnout where he needs it most.
APC’s Okwuosa is no stranger to the fight. With strong recall in Nnewi South and a rebuilt base in the Nnewi axis after Ubah’s exit, his map is clear: dominate Nnewi, break even in Ihiala, and chip away at Orumba. He has the resources — the question is whether his ground operatives can match APGA’s pace across all wards.
Labour Party’s Nzeribe has the kind of endorsements that make headlines — Peter Obi and George Moghalu in his corner, plus a decisive primary win. His best chance lies in mobilizing youth voters in Nnewi North and Ihiala, but endorsements don’t accredit voters. If his agents aren’t airtight tomorrow, the hype won’t hold.
PDP’s Chris Uba has name recognition but little field electricity this cycle. His only real shot is if the others cannibalize each other’s numbers and his old structures pull a surprise.
On the probability table, it’s APGA 38–45%, APC 30–36%, LP 18–24%, PDP 5–10%. APGA has the edge, APC is breathing down their neck, and LP could wreck the script if youth turnout and logistics align.
By tomorrow night, the winner won’t be the loudest or the most endorsed. It will be the one who turns chatter into accredited votes before lunch — and keeps them till the last ballot is counted. In Anambra South, that’s not just politics. That’s survival.
