This report is from today’s TNC’s Daily Open, our international markets update. TNC Daily Open keeps investors informed on everything they need to know, no matter where they are.
What To Note Today
December Job Explosion
The U.S. Bureau of Labour Statistics said Friday that nonfarm payrolls in the United States increased by 256,000 in December, surpassing the 155,000 forecasted by the Dow Jones consensus and up from 212,000 in November. The jobless rate decreased slightly from 4.2% in November to 4.1% in December, but economists anticipated that it would remain unchanged.
US Markets Are Losing Money In 2025
Major U.S. indexes have lost money this year due to Friday’s market meltdown following the release of the December jobs report, which broke expectations. Monday saw a decline in Asia-Pacific markets, mirroring Wall Street’s decline. The CSI 300 fell almost 0.5%, continuing Friday’s losses when it finished at its lowest level since September 2024, even though China reported an unexpected gain in exports for December.
Unexpected Surge In Chinese Exports
China’s customs administration reported on Monday that its exports in December increased 10.7% in U.S. dollars compared to last year. That is greater than the 6.7% gain in November and the 7.3% growth predicted by a Reuters poll. After declining for the previous two months, imports increased by 1.0%. However, possible U.S. tariff increases could impede trade.
The Reasons Behind Meta’s Need To “Fail Trump”
Meta’s declaration on Tuesday that it would stop using third-party fact-checking was interpreted as an effort to curry favour with Donald Trump, the president-elect of the United States. Here’s why, in the words of a former Facebook vice president, Meta had to “bend the knee to Trump.” In a separate interview on Friday, CEO Mark Zuckerberg criticized Apple for its poor innovation efforts on the “Joe Rogan Experience.”
U.S May Ban Tiktok This Week
The U.S. Supreme Court heard oral arguments on Friday regarding TikTok’s future in the US. The app may be removed from app stores as early as this week because the justices appeared mostly unconvinced by TikTok’s primary contention that prohibiting it would violate the free expression rights of its millions of American users.
Bank Earnings For The Week And The Inflation Report
The December U.S. consumer price index will be released on Wednesday. It will show whether inflationary pressures still affect the market and economy, particularly in light of the unexpectedly high December nonfarm payroll figures.Â
The second half of the week is when major banks like Morgan Stanley, JPMorgan Chase, and Goldman Sachs release their earnings.
Bottom Line
The number of jobs added in December exceeded the Dow Jones consensus estimate by 100,000.
Because of the robust labour market, investors were concerned that the Fed might continue to be hawkish. The CME Group’s FedWatch index showed that following the jobs report, the market-implied probability of only one cut this year rose to 68.5%.
Following the announcement of the jobs report, bond rates, which had already increased in recent weeks, increased much more. The 10-year Treasury yield has not been higher since November 2023.
After the jobs report was released, the market experienced a quick and predictable sell-off. The Dow Jones Industrial Average fell 1.63%, the Nasdaq Composite fell 1.63%, and the S&P 500 fell 1.54%. For 2025, all of the major indexes are currently negative.
As the saying goes, good news is bad news for investors.
However, we must remember that the situation has changed since the height of inflation.
This time, the U.S. Federal Reserve may be less concerned about a strong labour market. On the other hand, strong job growth likely reassures it, given that the Fed’s September jumbo 50-basis-point rate decrease was partly motivated by concerns about the employment rate.
On CNBC’s “Squawk on the Street,” Chicago Fed President Austan Goolsbee declared, “You’re never going to hear me complain that we got 250,000 jobs.” Additionally, Goolsbee pointed out that inflation has been at 1.9% over the last six months, which is slightly less than the Fed’s target.
Strong employment figures indicate a robust economy during periods of lower inflation.
Additionally, Adam Turnquist, chief technical strategist at LPL Financial, stated that economic growth eventually “means the potential for better earnings, less risk of a recession, and that’s really going to dictate longer-term returns versus a sell-off in today’s market.”
To put it another way, if investors look beyond the here and now, good news can be good news merely.
