With analysts forecasting real GDP growth between 3.2 and 3.9 percent, Nigeria’s economy is predicted to be stronger in the second quarter of 2025.
This would be a significant advance over the 3.13 percent growth registered in Q1 2025 and also top the equivalent period of 2024, therefore indicating improved macroeconomic stability and increased activity outside the oil industry.
The optimistic perspective follows the recent rebasing of GDP, which offers more visibility into rapidly growing sectors in conjunction with exchange rate stability and growing output in services, telecoms, and industrial operations. Non-oil industries were major drivers of resiliency in Q1, and this momentum is projected to persist in Q2. Later this month the National Bureau of Statistics is set to publish the official statistics.
The News Chronicle observed that increased business confidence is associated with better growth prospects. In Q2 2025, the Purchasing Managers’ Index averaged 52.2 points, up from 48.0 in the same quarter the previous year and 51.3 in Q1. This points to a wide expansion of private sector activity, bolstered by reduced inflationary pressures, cheaper fuel, and a more stable exchange rate environment that has helped import-dependent companies and manufacturers.
Sectoral results show that nonoil companies are still the driving force of growth. With financial services profiting from bank recapitalization and telecommunications growing as a result of tariff liberalization, services continue to lead. Industry is also anticipated to increase around 3.6% in Q2, versus 3.4% in Q1. Agriculture is still constrained because food production remains below historical averages due to insecurity in regions like Benue and the Plateau.
The performance of the oil sector remained muted in Q2 as production remained relatively stable at 1.48 million barrels per day, nearly unchanged from Q1. The average barrel of crude fell from $73.66 to $68.70. Furthermore, reducing revenues is the slowing of global demand brought on by trade disputes.
With the Nigerian Exchange registering a 13.54 percent rise in Q2, its best since early 2024, the market mood has drastically changed. Analysts believe that the combination of rebased GDP, constant FX, moderating inflation, and better stock market performance highlights a more optimistic growth track for the Nigerian economy in the second quarter of 2025.
