“Wisdom in people consists in the anticipation of consequences.” Norman Cousins, 1915-1990. Courtesy Elder Dele Sobowale.
Though fifty two companies are under investigation by Economic and Financial Crime Commission seems the invasion of Dangote Group offices was stage managed for media coverage as EFCC retrieved’ documents. This at a period the new Dangote Flagship, the Carrier Petrochemical and Refinery complex is sailing out to sea to conquer the world.
What game is going on? Is it for the good of the land or playing to a gallery to assuage the Emefiele assaulted minds of Nigerians. Is EFCC playing its traditional role of being attack dogs of the leading politicians against perceived enemies. Today EFCC focus has shifted from politicians to high flying corporations.
Before Dangote Group’s outing with EFCC was OLAM conglomerate. Olam was the group that singlehandedly propelled unknown polished sesame seed export to position as Nigeria’s No.1 non-oil exporter over cocoa beans export. Olam’s infraction being that they brought in forex at official rate and sold at another rate, Olams forex o’ not CBN forex as in case of Dangote.
By going after Dangote EFCC is going after a solution provider and game changer in Nigeria’s forex equation. With potential to contribute $20 billion dollars annually by stoppage of imports and export of petrochemicals, clinker, urea, and four or five refined products in the short run, EFCC has struck. Agreed, no one is above the law except cronies of ex-presidents and the president even if they brought the nation to its knees. It is the one who is on track to solve the naira problem that is dragged into the murky waters of trial by media expose. This is a pathetic judgment call for as we all know perception is everything. For now government’s own short term solution is going aborrowing to shore up the Naira, kontinue’
While he who has brought in net investment of around $20 billion dollars in last ten years is about to be quartered up in public, none of those who put Nigeria’s neck on the block with a 500 million dollar payout to a Mittel or 11 billion dollar potential pay out to some Irish men’s company P.ID, none are undergoing any media trials if any court trial at all. Again perception is everything.
My suggestion/advice is that President Tinubu rail in his attack dogs for what at best should be a reconciliation of books but is sold to the public as a 419 suspect who indulged in round tripping of dollars.
Again, perception is everything. If the brightest stars are treated this way simply because they engaged within the operating framework of the prevailing forex market policy then foreign investors will fear to thread in the murky Nigerian waters, except those who want to join in the rape of Nigeria like the P.ID almost perfected.
The fact is if Aliko sneezes and catches a cold Nigeria would catch pneumonia, no exaggeration. Aliko has built his companies into the enviable position of American Car companies especially General Motors GM such that it was said of GM 50 years ago that “…what was good for GM was good for US”. Moreso Obama could not let Chryslar Motors go under during the global financial meltdown of 2008 to 2010.
Yes what is good for Aliko is good for Nigerian and like GM Aliko earned it, never was dropped in his lap as people believe. Currently without full operations at his Lekki Petrochemicals and Refinery, Dangote Group is the highest employer of labour outside of federal government. The group is highest contributor to government revenues with or without tax waivers. Few years back Dangote Group was a whopping 25% of Nigerian Stock Exchange NSE capitalisation. With coming on board of domesticated foreign companies, MTN and Airtel this Haa dropped to about 16.5%. Whenever Dangote Group Lekki ventures comprising of fertiliser and petrochemical go public on the NSE, the group could be anywhere around 50% of NSE capitalisation.
With the new policy of concrete paving of key load carrying roads, Aliko is in position to become a major infrastructure provider. His companies have both the materials and expertise which he has deployed in a number of concrete roads across the country. How about his large footprint in Nigerian agricultural sector being prominent in sugarcane and rice product. Add to this urea fertiliser input across country and you have a colossus operating in many sectors.
Yet to exhaust Dangote Group’s preeminence in the many, let’s move to future possibilities beyond Aliko buying AFC Aresnal Football Club. With a networth of around $10 billion Aliko was able to deliver projects of $20 billion. What projects would he be able to deliver with a networth of $25 billion dollars as his fertiliser plant petrochemical plant and refinery hits any bourse be it Jo’burg London or Lagos. Being a serial investor in heavy industries we can see him executing mega steel projects to complement his position in infrastructure provision. Producing steel and iron rods require loads of energy hence he could have his eyes on power generation, he had his eyes on 10,000 megawatts I believe and maybe rail transport to move his products,. Am I ahead of Aliko? These are transformative projects that no Nigerian government lack capacity to execute.
Yet this is the one the corruption ridden Nigerian state want to inoculate with perceived corruption grown in the annals of EFCC. After all if EFCC comes after you you are alleged to have committed ‘financial crimes’. What timing, at this critical point of our deplorable economy when all productive hands should be on deck. It would have been less daunting haunting if Nigeria had many of his ilk. Alhaji Abdul Samad Rabiu who is moulding himself in similar mould is a distant second so one in sight if Aliko’s wings are clipped.
This potential self inflicted pneumonia because no one is above the law is ours to reverse because their are indeed companies regarded as too big to fail, DG is one. Better to pray for the health and continued success of Aliko and his group of companies as he steps out on the world stage beyond Nigeria and Africa.
Nations with large footprints in global trade give lavish support in all forms including strategic forex allocations in teething stages and early life of their homegrown champions. Japan’s MITI did so for the Japanese Kereitsu groupings while South Korea did so for their Chaebols. In Nigeria we want to clip the sail of our Chaebol’.
Access to scarce but critical forex in formative stages is just one of the assistance government give their private flag bearing companies. Another is Ambassadors of the home country watching out for the interest of home companies in their foreign offices, especially the growing of market share in these countries through export. The opposite is the case for Nigeria. Ambassadors energise exports from their country of posting to Nigeria.
Have I gone overboard? quoted above Wisdom in people consists of anticipation of consequences, something we do not do well as a country. Another thing we do not do well is learning from other successful countries, we rather do our thing and hope to better those countries. Another thing is we don’t easily retrace our steps, so this assault on corporations doing business is likely to continue to move attention from corruption ridden politicians. So we better nip in the bud EFCC new passion before it becomes engrained in our DNA.
