The other week, we flew into this subject matter in the way most epic poets of the Horatian persuasion are wont to do. We started the story, to borrow the Latinate expression, “in medias res”. In other words, we broached the subject matter from the middle of things. Having blown the lid off the issue at stake, we can now venture into the heart of the matter through some flashbacks.
The issue before us remains the vexed phenomenon called political defection. It has always been there in Nigerian politics beginning from the First Republic. But what should interest us at this material time is its present mutation as is being seen in the present political dispensation.
Anybody who knows even a little about the political history of Nigeria will readily agree that never before have we witnessed the manner of political defection that is going on at the moment. The scenario we have on our hands is well-choreographed. It has a design, a plot and a denouement. It is more than defection. It is bears all the imprints of manipulation and conspiracy. This scenario may look strange to the simple-minded Nigerian. But those who understand the true Nigerian character will easily connect with the elaborate charade.
The hard fact which we must come to terms with is that we live in strange times. We are in an epoch when there is nothing left of values. Nigerians live in the present. They have no consideration for tomorrow. For the typical Nigerian, tomorrow can wait, or should take care of itself if it comes. The people do not care a hoot about its imminence. This predisposition is what defines the tone and timbre of the brand of defection we are witnessing in the country today.
How did we walk into this cul-de-sac? We can find the answer in the advent of something called the Bola Tinubu Presidency. It is one strange thing that is happening to Nigeria. It was the least expected when it came. That was why it struck the people like a thunderbolt. That is to say that the advent of the Tinubu order came in the manner of a disruption. It brought with it the brand of strangeness that Nigeria has never seen before. The north of the country was particularly thrown off balance by Tinubu’s nepotistic approach to governance. Utterly miffed by what has struck it , the region vowed a revenge. It swore by the dunes of its arid deserts that the Tinubu disorder must be abridged prematurely. This plot is what has thrown Tinubu into a frenzy. How does he short-circuit the north so that its plan to abridge his rule midstream will not come to fruition? This is the script that Tinubu is working on. That explains the strange disorder that is being packaged and sold as political defection.
We must underline at this point that the Tinubu defection politics has largely remained a southern Nigeria affair. Whereas we have witnessed some cross carpeting on the floor of the National Assembly involving elected representatives from all segments of the country , it is on record that no northern governor has left the political party under whose platform he was elected to join Tinubu’s All Progressives Congress (APC). The staccato dance with all its discordant tunes has remained a southern phenomenon.
What is Tinubu up to here? The answer is simple. He is trying to resurrect the ghost of southern solidarity which really never was. Let us recall that in 2001, the 17 southern governors gathered in Enugu for reasons of what they called southern solidarity. They were then trying to establish a stronghold for the Obasanjo presidency which was facing challenges from a section of the north led by the then vice president, Atiku Abubakar.
Months later, the governors met again in Lagos in furtherance of the Enugu agenda. But that was as far as it went. Nothing more was heard about the gathering. Nothing concrete came out of it. Obasanjo waltzed into second term not because of any southern solidarity, but because he was widely accepted by the greater majority of Nigerians. Southern solidarity has therefore been nothing more than a paper tiger. It is important to note that Tinubu was one of the southern governors who tried their hands on forging a southern alliance. But if that effort did not get off the ground, it was because the likes of Tinubu did not align with the Obasanjo presidency. But Obasanjo had his way, all the same.
Some 24 years after, Tinubu is now in Obasanjo’s shoes. He thinks that he needs the South to be able to ward off the threat the North poses to his second-term ambition. But Tinubu, unlike Obasanjo, wants all southern governors to converge under the umbrella of APC. He thinks that that is the only way he can be sure of their loyalty and support. To achieve this narrow objective, Tinubu is forcing southern solidarity on the southern region. That is at the root of the political defections we are witnessing. Is Tinubu succeeding in this self-serving enterprise? He thinks so.
But there are those who think that his action in this regard is not pragmatic enough. It is obvious that Tinubu is proceeding on the assumption that any state with a seating governor will be delivered to him by the governor without a whimper. That sounds probable. But we know it is not always the case in situations where votes count. We saw an example of that in the 2023 presidential elections. It is on record that Mr Peter Obi who flew the flag of the Labour Party in that election won outright in 12 states of the Federation. The same thing was true of both Tinubu and Atiku in that election.
Each of them won in 12 out of the 36 states. But Peter Obi’s case was different. He did not, unlike Tinubu and Atiku, have any governor serving under the banner of his party in the states he won. So, if that could happen in 2023, what should stop it from happening in 2027 or any other year, for that matter, if elections are to be about the people’s votes? A dispassionate reflection on this question makes Tinubu’s scheme weak. Perhaps, Tinubu’s trump card is resting on the calculation that the people’s votes will not count.
But what exactly is the Tinubu scheme? He is assuming that governors will deliver their states to him in the 2027 presidential election. He also thinks that their assignment would be a lot easier if they belonged to his political party. That is the real reason behind the coercion of southern governors into the APC. But as Tinubu progresses in his devious scheme, he needs history to guide him appropriately. Coercing governors into his camp cannot guarantee him victory in the forthcoming elections. Unless Tinubu and his cohorts are saying that votes will not count in 2027. Will that really be the case? We will soon find out.
QUOTE:
“Tinubu is assuming that governors will deliver their states to him in the 2027 presidential election. He thinks also that their assignment would be a lot easier if they belong to his political party. That is the real reason behind the coercion of southern governors into the APC.”
