Nigeria has barely one year to the next general elections. This being the case, all serious political activities that will usher in the coming elections are expected to take place this year. It therefore goes without saying that 2026 is the real election year. It is only the actual voting that is reserved for early 2027. But then, what will give shape or form to the actual election is what takes place this year.
In the light of this, we cannot but ask: what is the state of the political parties? How are they gearing up for the elections? What political parties are we even talking about? Anybody who is interested in a robust political contest will naturally seek handy answers to these questions. A simple recourse to the critical issues that will shape and influence the elections will present us with the frontline political parties that have the capacity to win at the polls. On this score, we can easily look in the direction of the ruling party, the All Progressives Congress (APC). Since election is necessarily a contest, it is expected that the APC must have challengers. It cannot go it alone.
This brings us to the doorstep of opposition political parties. Which are they? What do they have to offer? I do not know of any that can actually pass for a strong political party that can challenge the existing order except the new coalition that gave birth to the African Democratic Congress (ADC). So, what is the state of health of the ADC? We will devote some ample space here in finding a fitting answer to this question.
As we have earlier observed, the ADC is the only political party that can square up with the APC in the coming polls. But that will depend on a number of factors. The most immediate and compelling of the factors is the ability of the opposition ADC to put itself together. So, what is the party doing in this regard? Let us begin by giving the ADC the credit it deserves. Its formal unveiling on July 2, 2025 was a landmark development. It had a telling impact on the polity. It almost looked like a new day has come for Nigerian politics. Coming on the heels of destroy-the-opposition politics of President Bola Tinubu, the ADC could be commended for being able to weather the storm. It should be recalled that the Tinubu presidency killed two vibrant opposition parties, the Peoples Democratic Party (PDP) and the Labour Party ( LP). Using Nyesom Wike, his factotum as the spoilsport, Tinubu ensured that the PDP does not breathe again. Today, the party can only be spoken of in the past. What exists now is a mere shadow of its once vibrant self. In the same vein, the Tinubu presidency ensured that Labour Party, another major opposition party, did not survive. A once vibrant political platform, it was this party that Mr Peter Obi used as vehicle in the keenly contested presidential election of 2023. After the disruptive exploits of Obi in 2023, Tinubu has to ensure that the party that almost brought Obi to power is decapitated. The ploy is to weaken Obi’s political base. But if Tinubu succeeded in destroying Labour Party, he failed in his effort to put Obi out of political reckoning. Obi still remains Tinubu’s undying nightmare.
With the death of PDP and LP, ADC is the brand new headache that Tinubu has to contend with. But is the ADC properly positioned to be Tinubu’s nemesis? The party’s drive, so far, does not appear to give much hope. One fact must be acknowledged. The fanfare and enthusiasm that heralded the coming of ADC in July has since left it. It did not endure. The party allowed the momentum that ushered it into the political space to peter out. Because the party has, so far, failed to seize the day, no serving governor of any political party has considered ADC as a proper vehicle to jump unto for the next electoral journey. Governors have continued to defect to APC, leaving ADC unsung. The reason for this is simple. The ADC has not convinced anyone that it will stay intact as the polls approach. Fear of a possible implosion is the greatest undoing of the ADC. That explains why defecting governors consider the APC more secure and more reassuring. In fact, the fact that no serving governor has defected to the ADC is, in a sense, a vote of no confidence on its ability to upset the apple carte. The party must give a lie to this growing perception if it must leave the right impression in the minds of Nigerians.
Rather than break into the political space with articulation and gusto, the ADC has continued to flounder. It is not working hard enough to erase the impression in the minds of Nigerians that it will not withstand the brewing internal tension that is slowing it down. That tension, as we very well know, has to do with who, between Peter Obi and Atiku Abubakar will fly the flag of the party. The impression out there is that the ADC will not be able to deal with this matter harmoniously. Observers fear that none of the two heavyweights would yield space to the other. They see a situation where both men will stand for election separately as was the case in 2023, using different political platforms. Many believe that if this scenario plays out, it would give Tinubu an edge over each and everyone of them in the 2027 polls. The arrangement they think can work is to have either Obi or Atiku stand for the presidential election with one supporting the other. Such an arrangement, they hold, is what is needed to get Tinubu out of office.
So far, the atmosphere looks uncertain. But what worries is not the uncertainty as the party’s laissez fare disposition towards it. A situation where the party is finding it difficult to make a pronunciation on zoning of the presidency is worrisome. The ADC should tell Nigerians whether it will zone the presidency to the south or the north. Such a declaration will put paid to the seeming Obi-Atiku wedger.
By remaining undecided in a matter as crucial as zoning, ADC is giving Nigerians the impression that it does not know what it wants. That it is merely gambling. Unfortunately for the party, dethroning an incumbent president is not a game of chance. It takes proper planning. It requires deft moves. It calls for courage and concerted effort. The ADC leadership should be reminded of what played out in APC when the party set out in 2014 to oust President Goodluck Jonathan out of office. Then, the APC had no issue about zoning. It also had no problem about who would fly its flag. In fact, the APC arrangement was put in place, intentionally and deliberately, to promote a Muhammadu Buhari candidature . Buhari was the best foot the party could put forward at that time. The party did not prevaricate about it. It settled for its best. And it worked. The ADC should borrow a leaf from the APC example. It should identify its best man for the battle ahead and begin now to market him. Stewing in the pot of indecision is not in the best interest of the party.
QUOTE:
“The ADC should tell Nigerians whether it will zone the presidency to the south or the north. Such a declaration will put paid to the seeming Obi-Atiku wedger”.
