Contrary to fears held globally that the recent attack on Israel by Iran might lead to a Third World War, International Affairs analyst Prof Jideofor Adibe expressed the belief that the attack will only heighten tensions in the Middle East and not lead to another global war.
Recall that on April 1st, 2024, Israel attacked an Iranian consulate in Damascus, killing 13 persons, including some Revolutionary Guard corps members.
In retaliation, Iran unleashed a barrage of missiles and drones on Israel on Saturday and Sunday, sparking fears that the crisis in the Middle East might lead to a Third World War.
However, while fielding questions during his appearance on Arise TV’s This Day Live late Sunday, Prof Adibe, a Professor of International Relations and Political Science at Nassarawa State, Keffi-Nigeria, said the fears of a possible Third World War were being over-dramatized.
According to him, to reach such conclusions, one must first consider the allies of the players in the Middle East crisis and their interests.
“In this case, who are the allies of Iran? He asked.
“The key allies are Russia, involved in the war in Ukraine, and whose capability to project power onto the global space has been seriously curtailed.
“There is also India, which has been supporting Iran not necessarily because of anything but just because it wants to create a space so that it can reach Afghanistan and Central Asia without having to go through Pakistan. So they are helping to expand a port in Southeast Iran.
“There is also China, whose relationship with Iran is driven by economic diplomacy and they are not likely to come out.
“On the side of the Arabs, Saudi Arabia and Iran conflict over which of the country is the leader of the Muslim world. Persia is dominantly Shiite while Saudi Arabia is dominantly Sunni. So you cannot mobilize pan-Arabism or pan-Islamism in the fight against anybody.
“Then you have North Korea, which has its problems and cannot project power on the global space.
“On the face of it, you see that NATO has been expanding with more countries joining it.
“So the prospects of any World War III are completely ruled out.
“What will happen will be an escalation of the crisis because Israel for sure is going to attack preemptively to destroy the capability of Iran to develop missiles for future attacks.
“But somehow, when one’s power is disequilibrated in the Middle East, there is also the tendency for them to find a way of bringing them back to balance,” he explained.
The International Affairs expert noted that two things have remained constant among the Middle East politics and the relations among the states- Israel, Iran, and the others.
According to him, it is about pre-emptive attacks and retaliation.
“The key drivers of the Israeli policy include pre-emptive strikes, where they attack you preemptively when they understand that you are developing a capability that will hurt them in the future,” he continued.
“The other one is the retaliatory response. Each time you hurt them one way or the other, be very certain that they will retaliate. And the same goes with Iran.
“When Israel attacked Iran on April 1st, Iran said then that they were going to retaliate and that was what they did. So, it wasn’t about teaching Israel a lesson.
“In any case, they were said to have fired about 300 cruise and ballistic missiles, in which Israel said they were able to forestall and deactivate about 99% of them and that only one girl was hurt and taken to hospital.
“There was a coalition comprising Israeli Forces, French forces, and UK forces that were said to have provided the technology for the interception of the missiles and their neutralization.
“Given these key drivers of Israeli policy in the Middle East, it is obvious that they are now going to attack Iran preemptively to destroy their capacity to develop missiles. When that attack will happen, no one knows.
“The Iranian foreign minister is warning Israel not to retaliate and many other countries are also begging Israeli not to retaliate. But the truth is that Israel must retaliate, that is for sure.”
Reacting to the jubilation among Palestinians in Gaza over the attack, Adibe said, “It is tantamount to what we see when there is a military coup and people troop out into the streets to welcome the coupists.
“But after that euphoria, reality will set in because Israel will respond. So what the world needs to do, considering the key drivers of the Israeli policy is to begin to find ways to make Israel not respond.
But if you go back to their history, there has never been a time when they were attacked that they did not respond.”
Discussing the implications of the Iran-Israel crisis on the Israeli wars with the Arabs, Prof Adibe emphasized that a lot is changing about the nature of wars in the present age.
According to him, “That is the reason why sane countries think things through before they embark on wars.
“If you look at the fourth Arab-Israeli war in 1973, where Israel fought against a combination of three countries Syria, Jordan, and Egypt, it took only 19 days to round the forces up.
“The Israeli war in Gaza is the longest war Israel has ever fought in the Middle East. So, we are coming back to the dynamics of war in the 21st century.
“Nobody would have expected that Israel with all its capabilities and support, seven months into the war against a population of only 590,000 people, is still struggling.
“A lesson we must all learn is that the nature of war is changing.”
The professor also mirrored the implication of the Israeli situation on the upcoming Presidential Election in the United States of America, saying the turn of events will play a huge role in determining who eventually emerges.
“What is have seen is that among the Muslims and young people in the US, they are not happy with the way the country handles the Israeli war in Gaza and they have turned anti-Biden.
“But now, with those missile attacks on Israel, the people will be reminded of the existential threat Israel faces,” he said.
Adibe opined that given the handicap the United Nations faces because of how its Security Council is configured, it would be very difficult for it to take serious action against some major players in the conflict, towards finding lasting global peace.
He said, “In the UN Security Council, there are five countries that wield the veto power. Anything said about Israel, be sure that America will veto it if it is against that.
“The UN said it will have a meeting and we are still expecting the outcome of the war council meeting which Benjamin Netanyahu of Israel said he was going to summon on the situation.
“But be mindful that what we are going to get is the normal condemnation.
“It is easier in the general assembly to morally condemn an action. What is difficult is when it comes to the Security Council where you have to take a decision that will require some kind of enforcement.
“And because you need the consensus of the five veto-wielding powers, it is difficult to arrive at a consensus.
“China has called for restraint same with Russia because they have sympathy for Iran.”
“Joe Biden has said the country has ironclad support for Israel, while Donald Trump is saying he would have done better because, in an election year, there comes a competition among contestants as to who is more pro-Israel.”