The defection of former Kaduna State governor, Nasir El-Rufai, from the ruling All Progressives Congress (APC) to the Social Democratic Party (SDP) a few days ago appears to have kick-started political activities for the 2027 elections earlier than expected. Recently, the voice of former Senate President, Dr. Bukola Saraki, has become more prominent, particularly in his intervention regarding the sexual harassment allegations leveled against Senate President Godswill Akpabio by Senator Natasha Akpoti-Uduaghan. Dr. Saraki has raised concerns over the Senate’s handling of the case under the leadership of the accused, Godswill Akpabio, arguing that it lacks transparency, fairness, and due process. His outspokenness marks a significant moment after what seemed like a long period of political ‘sabbatical’ or silence.
The renewed criticism of the ruling party by key political figures such as Atiku Abubakar, Dr. Rabiu Kwankwaso, Peter Obi, and Rotimi Amaechi suggests a resurgence of political energy, an emerging agenda, and early strategic positioning for the next general elections in 2027.
My interest in this political development—particularly El-Rufai’s defection to the SDP—is inspired by the overwhelming public reaction. His move has not only shifted attention away from the Natasha vs. Akpabio drama but has also attracted significant public approval from both his perceived supporters and detractors. The sudden surge in public debates, analysis, speculation, intrigue, and emotional reactions suggests that his defection has sparked fresh political enthusiasm.
While much of the debate has centered on whether El-Rufai’s defection poses a threat to President Bola Ahmed Tinubu’s political stronghold, I am more intrigued by the renewed public engagement, the positive emotions, and the sense of hope his move has generated. The wave of social media reactions indicates that, for many people, the emergence of a strong opposition is being viewed as a source of relief or renewed faith in the political system.
One key observation regarding the public mood surrounding El-Rufai’s defection is the emotional and psychological nature of human judgment. Political perception is often shaped by emotion, sympathy, empathy, envy, and fluctuating sentiments. People can consciously or unconsciously focus on the negative aspects of a politician at one time—leading to rejection—while at another time, they may emphasize the positive aspects, resulting in renewed acceptance. This explains why politicians who were once widely disliked or dismissed can regain popularity even when little about them has changed, except for the passage of time and shifting public sentiment.
The transient nature of public opinion may also stem from the short political memory of the electorate. Over time, people grow weary of those in power, craving change simply for the sake of replacing familiar faces. Even those who initially supported a leader may later feel disillusioned and begin seeking alternatives due to a perception of dominance or stagnation.
Another factor fueling public excitement over the emerging opposition, particularly El-Rufai, is the growing anti-government sentiment. Every new administration enters office with high expectations, even among those who may not have supported it initially. However, as time passes and governance challenges emerge, experiences with leadership can validate previously suppressed fears or cast doubt on initial optimism. When a government’s actions or inactions fail to meet public expectations, people become more willing to embrace any opposition figure, even if they offer nothing more than symbolic hope or false expectations.
Familiarity also plays a role in shaping public perception. The continuous presence of certain political figures in power can lead to fatigue, making opposition figures seem more attractive. This suggests that political “scarcity”—or a temporary withdrawal from public life—can be a strategic advantage. Figures like El-Rufai and Saraki, having been absent from the political limelight for some time, may now be benefiting from renewed public sympathy and admiration. This phenomenon is akin to relationships where people tend to appreciate each other more after separation or divorce.
Many politicians are aware of this cyclical pattern, which is why they often pay little attention to public perception while in office. They understand that, with time, the same public that criticized them may later call for their return. During this period outside power, their positive traits are often emphasized more than their flaws.
Another reason people welcome political comebacks, despite past disappointments, is the failure of successive governments to deliver tangible improvements in people’s daily lives. While every government celebrates its reforms using economic metrics like GDP growth, the reality is that most citizens judge leadership based on personal experiences—cost of living, inflation, employment rates, and overall welfare. When these indicators do not improve, nostalgia for past administrations sets in, making former officeholders appear as “heroes” in hindsight, even if they were once criticized.
Additionally, every new government benefits from an initial period of goodwill, where hopes and expectations run high. However, as appointments are made and opportunities become limited, those who feel left out—along with their supporters—begin searching for alternative platforms. Many of those celebrating El-Rufai’s defection may not necessarily share his ideology or vision but see his new party as a viable platform to advance their own political aspirations. This explains why politicians who feel sidelined within APC, PDP, LP, or NNPP are quickly joining the SDP to establish themselves early in the party’s structure.
Research has highlighted psychological and social factors that contribute to declining political popularity and the desire for change. Envy, familiarity, and perceptions of dominance all play significant roles. Envy—a complex emotion driven by feelings of inferiority—can manifest as resentment toward a leader’s success, ultimately fueling opposition. Familiarity, on the other hand, can lead to disillusionment as people become more critical of a leader’s flaws over time. Similarly, when a government is perceived as arrogant or unresponsive, voters may instinctively seek alternatives.
However, while these emotions often drive political shifts, they rarely translate into genuine systemic change. Many voters continue to believe that merely changing leadership will automatically lead to good governance without critically assessing broader systemic issues. This is why most political transitions fail to bring about radical transformations—new leaders often maintain the status quo due to entrenched societal norms, values, and expectations. Nigeria has yet to produce a universally celebrated national leader while still in power, largely because public sentiment is shaped more by emotion than by objective evaluation.
That said, while El-Rufai and other opposition figures may currently enjoy renewed public interest, their resurgence could ultimately benefit the ruling party. The proliferation of opposition parties often weakens the overall opposition, making alliances difficult and splitting votes among multiple factions. The experience of the 2023 elections demonstrated this clearly. If the primary source of public discontent is economic hardship—particularly high fuel prices and inflation—then any significant improvement in these areas before 2027 could further consolidate APC’s dominance.
While opposition figures like El-Rufai, Atiku, Obi, and Saraki may momentarily energize political discourse, their influence will remain limited unless they forge a united national platform. Without strategic alliances, their efforts may amount to little more than isolated political maneuvers—loud but ineffective in altering the dominance of the ruling party.
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