Bloodbaths: Time to Rethink Nigeria’s Counterinsurgency Playbook

Once again, the hounds of terror have slipped the leash, and Nigeria’s northeastern region is paying the ultimate price. In a chilling turn of events, a recent report by Nextier SPD paints a damning portrait of a government floundering under the weight of its own security promises. Over a span of just five weeks, more than 300 Nigerian lives were brutally cut short by Boko Haram and its offshoots, with over 100 of them being the very soldiers sworn to protect the nation. If this isn’t a national emergency, then what is?

Like a house built on sand, Nigeria’s current counterinsurgency strategy is crumbling under the slightest pressure. The report — “Re-thinking Nigeria’s Counterinsurgency Strategy: The Aftermath of the Boko Haram Resurgence” — does not mince words. Between November 2024 and April 2025, 252 terrorist attacks were recorded, and January alone claimed 92 souls. These are not mere statistics; they are mothers, fathers, soldiers, and children — Nigerians — buried beneath the rubble of policy failure and political complacency.

It is said that insanity is doing the same thing over and over again and expecting different results. For over a decade, Nigeria has relied almost exclusively on military might to quash insurgency in the northeast. And yet, the hydra-headed monster of Boko Haram continues to regrow its limbs, this time with deadlier precision and expanded territory. The seizure of three local government areas in Borno State speaks volumes. How can we still talk about sovereignty when parts of our nation are effectively under the grip of terrorists?

Even more alarming is the enemy’s evolution. According to the report, Boko Haram factions, including the dreaded Jama’atu Ahlis Sunna Lidda’awati wal-Jihad (JAS) and Islamic State West Africa Province (ISWAP), have grown more sophisticated. From ambushes on military convoys to targeted attacks on internally displaced persons (IDP) camps, the insurgents are now playing a tactical game of chess while the Nigerian state appears stuck in checkers mode.

Worse still is the deepening fatigue within the armed forces. Our soldiers — brave men and women — are being stretched beyond their limits, fighting a war with no end in sight. Their morale is faltering, and trust between the military and civilians is eroding faster than the banks of a river in flood season. Civil-military relations, once the bedrock of effective counterinsurgency, are now riddled with suspicion and resentment.

What is more harrowing is the surge in kidnappings, particularly in April 2025. For a government that promised security as its flagship agenda, this upsurge is nothing short of a betrayal. If our citizens cannot travel, farm, or sleep in peace, then what remains of governance?

The report makes it clear: this is not just a military problem. Poverty, joblessness, and illiteracy are the kindling feeding the flames of radicalisation. Every bullet fired without addressing these root causes is like trimming branches while ignoring the poisoned roots of a dying tree. “Military victories do not necessarily translate to improved community security and stabilisation,” the report rightly observes. Until Nigeria addresses the social and economic rot beneath the insurgency, every victory will be as fleeting as a mirage in the desert.

Indeed, a paradigm shift is overdue. Nigeria must embrace a people-centred counterinsurgency model. This means fusing kinetic action with non-kinetic measures — deploying economic empowerment, education, infrastructure, and community-based interventions as weapons just as vital as rifles and tanks.

Inclusive dialogue cannot be sidelined. We must engage with communities, not just as victims, but as partners in rebuilding trust, strengthening intelligence networks, and rehabilitating disillusioned youth. The days of top-down imposition of peace are over; peace must be built from the grassroots up.

Also, let us not forget the role of local governance. State and local governments must be empowered, accountable, and responsive. A centralised approach to such a complex and localised conflict has only led us down a blind alley. It is time to let communities take ownership of their own security frameworks with robust support from the federal government.

President Bola Ahmed Tinubu must rise to the occasion. History will not remember those who played politics while the nation burned. The bloodbath in the northeast demands immediate action — not just visits and photo ops, but decisive reforms that cut across military strategy, socioeconomic policy, and national cohesion.

We must also call out the elephant in the room: impunity. Every attack that goes unpunished emboldens the enemy. Intelligence failures, lack of accountability, and the absence of political will have become the Achilles’ heel of Nigeria’s fight against terrorism. Enough is enough.

Nigeria is at a crossroads. The resurgence of Boko Haram is a clarion call. Either we overhaul our approach or continue sleepwalking into a future where terror becomes normal, where IDP camps multiply, and where every military funeral becomes just another statistic.

Let it be known: this is not a war that can be won with guns alone. It is a battle for hearts, for trust, and for justice. And until Nigeria begins to fight on all these fronts, victory will remain an illusion, and the northeast will remain a theatre of sorrow.

The clock is ticking. The question is: will our leaders act before the next tragedy strikes, or will they wait until the cries of another 300 Nigerians echo through a land already drowning in grief?

Stanley Ugagbe is a Social Commentator. He can be reached via stanleyakomeno@gmail.com