All over the world, particularly in neo-liberal third world democracies such as Nigeria’s, both history and the science of politics have shown that the only chance of unseating a sitting government is through a GRAND COALITION of opposition political parties. It is necessary to remind the opposition PDP, LP, PRP, SDP, NNPP, and other opposition parties that they must come together and form a GRAND COALITION to stand any chance of unseating the APC and President Bola Tinubu in the 2027 Presidential election.
In the GRAND COALITION, the opposition political parties must present a SINGLE PRESIDENTIAL CANDIDATE to stand any chance of beating the APC. It means only one of the opposition political parties notably the PDP will field a candidate. Under this formula, the LP, NNPP and SDP will NOT field any Presidential candidate in the 2027 election but will rally round their supporters to vote for the SINGLE OPPOSITION CANDIDATE.
If the opposition parties cannot form a GRAND COALITION and adopt a SINGLE PRESIDENTIAL CANDIDATE in the 2027 Presidential election, it is better not to waste any funds on a so-called election. Just swear in President Tinubu in advance for another term of office.
Better to use the over N300 billion that INEC will purportedly ‘spend’ to conduct the election to build and equip skills acquisition centres for Nigerian youths across the country to promote job creation and build a skills-based economy.
In Nigeria where the democratic process is extremely weak, votes are monetised, the election umpire INEC is compromised, the security agencies are partisan, the use of technology to conduct elections is purposely avoided. In all of these, the opposition stands absolutely no chance of unseating the ruling APC unless through a GRAND COALITION of opposition political parties.
If the votes scored by the PDP and the LP in the 2023 Presidential election were to go to the PDP as one, the story would have been different. When the PDP dismantled to form the LP in the run-up to the 2023 election and the votes that would have otherwise gone to the PDP ended up with LP, a gap was created, and the APC won the election. Come to think of it, if the CPC has not merged with the ACN and ANPP to form the APC in 2014, the PDP will still be in power today because the votes would have split between the CPC, ACN and ANPP to pave way for the PDP in 2015. This was what happened in the 2011 presidential elections, which paved the way for the PDP to win.
According to INEC figures, the votes scored by each of the four major political parties in the 2023 Presidential election are as follows:
Bola Tinubu APC- 8,794,726. (36.61%) – Winner
Atiku Abubakar PDP – 6,984,520 (29.07%)
Peter Obi LP- 6,101,533 (25.40%)
Rabiu Kwankwaso NNPP Kano votes – 1,496,687 (6.23%)
From the figures, it is very clear that Peter Obi’s candidacy led to the splitting of the votes which in turn paved the way for the APC to win the election with a mere 36% of the votes. The PDP garnered 29.07% of the votes while the LP scored 25.40% and the NNPP got Kano state votes to score 6.23%.
The total percentage points scored by the 4 opposition political parties translates to 60.70% of the votes as against APC’s 36.61%. This means that if the opposition parties (PDP+ LP+ NNPP) were together in a GRAND COALITION in 2023, they would have sent the APC packing by a margin of 24.09% of the votes. This is huge.
Yes, history can repeat itself if the four opposition parties agree to come together and present ONE candidate in the 2027 Presidential election. The gladiators – 3 Presidential candidates of the three main opposition parties viz; Atiku Abubakar (PDP) Peter Obi (LP)!and Rabiu Kwankwaso (NNPP) must swallow their pride, step aside, put the interest of Nigeria above any personal interest and present ONE CANDIDATE for the 2027 Presidential election. The presumed Presidential candidates of the three main opposition political parties -PDP, LP and NNPP- must make sacrifices and step down for ONE CANDIDATE if they are to stand any chance against the ruling APC with INEC, police, all election monitoring structures and of course, free government money at the disposal of the APC.
Anything short of the three main opposition political parties presenting ONE CANDIDATE in the 2027 Presidential election will mean handing over victory to President Tinubu and the APC on a platter of gold.
Even Senegal, arguably the strongest democracy in Africa had to use a GRAND COALITION to defeat former President Macky Sall despite Sall’s glaring unpopularity. Thanks to the bravery and persistence of then opposition leader and now Prime Minister Ousmane Sonko and President Bassirou Diomaye Faye.
Even at next door Ghana, the opposition was said to have used a COALITION to unseat the ruling party and return President John Mahama to office.
In weak democracies such as Nigeria’s, there is a well documented evidence on the use of free money and other enticements as low as a mudu of rice by the government in power to entice voters. Indeed, the monetisation of votes and commercialisation of politics is a pastime in Nigeria and it is the single reason why the right people are never voted into office.
Former Vice President Atiku spilled the beans when he revealed that the ruling APC is dishing out free N50 million to each opposition party leader to get them in the pocket in the run-up ti the 2027 election.
In fact, the right people with conscience normally don’t even attempt to contest elections in Nigeria because they know they stand absolutely no chance of winning. Don’t read me wrong, not everybody in public office in Nigeria today is corrupt and ineffective but majority are. Even those who want to do the right thing and make a difference in public office are frustrated by the gang of fraudulent colleagues all over the space.
The PDP and LP, as second and third placed political parties in the last Presidential election must come together in a GRAND COALITION of the willing to stand any chance of unseating the ruling APC. Clearly an Atiku/Obi ticket will be an overkill.
Hopefully, the PDP and LP will come over their internal leadership crisis and woo other opposition political parties to form the much talked about GRAND COALITION. Yes, there are moles in the PDP who are working for the APC to ensure that an APC handpicked Presidential candidate flies the flag of the PDP in the 2027 elections. For the third place LP, the APC is trying to use the courts to disqualify the LP from fielding any Presidential candidate in 2027 on the pretext that they conducted ‘parallel Congresses’ and are factionalised. This is reminiscent of Rivers 2019 when a federal high court sitting in Port Harcourt in an alleged high-stakes bribery ruling nullified all APC primary elections and disqualified all APC candidates from participating in the 2019 general elections. This paved way for the PDP to win the Rivers state 2019 gubernatorial election literally unopposed.
The opposition political parties must remember that the ruling APC is now ultra-desperate. After almost 10 years in power, the APC has nothing more to offer except removal of fuel subsidy, more taxes, further devaluation of the Naira etc. The ideals for which the APC was founded have long been jettisoned. The three cardinal objectives for which the APC was formed: 1. Fight corruption, 2. Guarantee security and 3. Fix the economy have all been abandoned. Insecurity is at its highest ebb in Nigeria with terrorists, bandits and secessionists running riot all over the country. More people have been killed by bandits and terrorists in the last 10 years of APC administration than at any time in the history of Nigeria. Corruption has enveloped the country at lightning speed with new unimaginable cases of corruption involving state governors and other highly placed public office holders reported daily, a media trial conducted, plea bargain by the EFCC and that’s it: case closed. Public officeholders are now stealing in excess of N100 BILLION.
The economy has nose dived to abysmal levels with over 150 million Nigerians living in abject multidimensional poverty (AMDP). More worrisome is the fact that the Tinubu administration introduced some so-called ‘reforms’ viz removal of fuel subsidy and floatation of the exchange rate NGN-USD. The removal of fuel subsidy in particular has sent the average Nigerian to an unimaginable life of poverty and penury as citizens find it difficult to feed.
Without doubt, there is the need to try something new: the opposition can make it happen if they come together and form a GRAND COALITION to wrestle power from the APC in the 2027 Presidential election.
