Why is it that opposition appears weak at the very moment anti-government sentiment is soaring? This is the paradox confronting Nigeria’s political landscape. On one hand, citizens groan under economic strain and insecurity; on the other, the ruling All Progressives Congress (APC) commands an astonishing majority of sitting governors, leaving only a handful in opposition. Power, as political scientist Maurice Duverger once observed, tends to reward organization over outrage. And in this case, organization is tilting decisively in one direction.
The six remaining opposition states are scattered across parties and interests:Bauchi State (PDP), Oyo State (PDP), Zamfara State (PDP), Abia State (Labour party), Osun state (Accord), and Anambra State (APGA). They are not marching in one file, nor singing from one hymn sheet. Meanwhile, the African Democratic Congress (ADC), the new bride of political fascination, parades notable chieftains like Atiku Abubakar, Peter Obi, Nasir El-Rufai, Abubakar Malami, Rotimi Amaechi, David Mark, yet not a single sitting governor. It is an alliance parading few household names but thin in structure, strong in symbolism but fragile in institutional muscle.
Still, many citizens are convinced that removing President Bola Ahmed Tinubu is a sealed deal long before ballots are printed. That confidence survives even after recent local elections in the Federal Capital Territory revealed a sobering truth: turnout was historically low, and parties with tested grassroots machinery performed better. Democracy does not reward passion alone; it rewards mobilization. As scholars of electoral behavior often note, the side that converts apathy into participation usually prevails.
The vulnerability of opposition governors is therefore not theoretical. To stand isolated while one’s party weakens nationally is to gamble with political survival. Defections, once denied with theatrical conviction, may soon become rational calculations. Politicians, after all, are rarely sentimental actors. They move where influence, resources, and protection converge. It is naïve to assume that they will sacrifice relevance on the altar of public emotion.
When confronted with this dilemma, some insist that “people win elections, not governors.” Yet where were those same people during the FCT council polls marked by low turnout? Numbers, however small, determine victory. And low turnout magnifies the strength of organized structures capable of mobilizing even indifferent voters. In politics, structure often outperforms sentiment.
The irony deepens: anti-government sentiment is loud, even intense, yet viable opposition remains fractured. Economic hardship, fuel subsidy removal, persistent power shortages, and insecurity have understandably fueled frustration. But perceived poor performance alone does not fully explain the depth of resentment. Political psychology teaches that perception is shaped as much by identity and symbolism as by policy outcomes. Feelings frequently outrun facts.
Regional ambition plays a significant role. Since the First Republic and the era of Nnamdi Azikiwe, the Igbo aspiration for the presidency has carried emotional weight. The renewed rallying around Peter Obi reflects not merely partisan preference but a historical longing. For many, Tinubu’s second-term ambition stands as an obstacle to that aspiration. No spreadsheet of achievements can easily dissolve such symbolic stakes.
Equally, the attempt to balance perceived dominance of Muslim -muslim ticket through outreach to minority regions and Christian communities reveals Tinubu’s instinct as a political operator, more attentive to coalition-building than his predecessor Muhammadu Buhari was often perceived to be. Yet balancing acts do not eliminate expectations; they sometimes inflate them. When expectations meet economic pain, disappointment can mutate into distrust.
This atmosphere becomes fertile ground for conspiracy, exaggerated alarms, and emotionally charged narratives. Citizens are more likely to believe the worst when anxiety is high. Social identity theory reminds us that individuals process political information through the lens of group belonging. What feels like exclusion can outweigh tangible policy considerations.
And yet, incumbency remains a formidable advantage. Tinubu, like any sitting president, faces opposition not only from citizens but from ambitious elites scheming for future power. That is the nature of politics. Still, it takes extraordinary conditions to unseat an incumbent commanding the loyalty or strategic alignment of most governors. Even those who remain in opposition may engage in quiet calculations for survival. When governors such as Charles Soludo signal support for the president despite party lines, it underscores how fluid alliances can become.
There is also selective perception at play. Defections from APC to ADC are celebrated as omens of impending change, yet potential support for Tinubu from sitting governors is dismissed as insignificant. This asymmetry reveals how desire can cloud analysis. We often see not what is probable but what we prefer.
None of this denies legitimate grievances. Nor does it absolve the administration of missteps, including optics that sometimes appear disproportionately favorable to the South West and Lagos. But history cautions against emotional revolutions. The fervor that once propelled change against a sitting president did not automatically translate into the promised transformation. As Alexis de Tocqueville warned, the most dangerous moment for a government is often when it begins to reform, because expectations rise faster than results.
In the final reckoning, weak opposition amid high anti-government sentiment is not a contradiction; it is a reflection of structural imbalance, fragmented ambition, and emotional politics. Outrage is abundant. Organization is scarce. And unless sentiment crystallizes into unified structure and disciplined strategy, the handwriting on the wall may favor continuity over upheaval in 2027.
Bagudu can be reached at bagudumohammed15197@gmail.com or on 0703 494 3575.
