It was an impromptu dialogue. None of the participants had foreknowledge of it. Everyone just ran into it. Yet, each and everyone of us was very willing to get involved. We got involved because it was all about Nigeria. We were just willing to dissect the issues, whatever they could be, from our different standpoints.
But the real point of convergence was that we were all concerned citizens. We were all genuinely concerned about the future of our country. We all seemed to be chorusing questions like: How do we get out of the blighted star that Nigeria has become? Should we clasp our hands in desperation and wait for the devil to take the last man standing? In other words, should we relapse into ignoble ease and do nothing in the manner of Belial, one of the mythical fallen archangels? Or should hard liberty, which many Nigerians have already adopted as a way of life, become our defining characteristic? Indeed, are we as a people going to continue along the familiar line of corrupt practices and reification of everything noble? Or is there hope for an overthrow of the debilitating order?
These questions get reinforced in my imagination whenever I recall that discussion session that I walked into last Friday. The crippling situation in Nigeria was at issue. Since it was not a formal gathering, everybody spoke freely.
Nobody wanted to sound politically correct. No one hid behind any mask. Nigeria, before all of us, stood displayed like the unveiling of Belinda’s toilet in Alexander Pope’s “The Rape of the Lock”. The interjections were non-partisan and devoid of any form of bias. The discussants just laid the country bare. There were no embellishments; and there were no suppressions. The participants were experts in their own right. Each showed comparative strength. Each brought something fresh and instructive to bear on the impromptu dialogue.
As should be expected, the focus was on the hopelessness that pervades the Nigerian landscape under the Bola Tinubu administration. How did Tinubu get Nigeria into this mess? Operators in the oil and gas sector were on hand to lend their perspectives. They told us what we did not know about oil politics in Nigeria. Tinubu, they said, was not well informed about the wheeling and dealing that has become a permanent feature of the oil and gas sub-sector of the Nigerian economy. He may have had an idea of the intrigues that define the sector, but he hardly knew how deep-rooted they were. It was that lack of knowledge and understanding that led him into declaring thoughtlessly and off-handedly that subsidy was gone. The declaration was a show of exuberance. It was sorely lacking in an understanding of the intricate web that holds the sector. Simply put, the president did not know what he was going to meet. By the time reality dawned on him, he had already gone astray. That gap between expectation and reality is at the root of the hiccup that is choking the Nigerian economy, and by extension, the people, to death.
One point that remained undisputed in the course of our interaction was the fact that corruption has become a permanent feature of our national life. If the oil and gas sector is unstable, it is because corrupt elements with their entrenched interests will always want things to go their own way. Today, the gigantic Dangote Petroleum Refinery and Petrochemicals which was expected to be the answer to the perennial energy crisis in Nigeria, is being buffeted on all fronts by the cartel that has been feeding fat from the oil sector for decades. They are resisting the possibility of one business octopus emerging from nowhere to forcefully remove the feeding bottle from their mouths. They will take none of that. That is why they do not want Dangote Refinery to succeed. That is the problem with the sector. It belongs to a closed circle of dealers. A clique; a club of conspirators; indeed a confraternity. They are more powerful than government. They determine how the sector is run. The ding-dong battle between them and Aliko Dangote is on. The shrewd business tycoon from Kano is never a pushover. He is up in arms against that ugly arrangement that has been keeping Nigeria down in the oil sector.
Lots and lots more were said about the economy, but the dialogue was later to veer off into mainstream politics and electioneering in Nigeria. Here, the coming governorship election in Edo State came into sharp focus. But before then, considerable attention was paid to the 2023 presidential election and the high wire politics that led to Tinubu’s emergence as president. The convergence of opinion on this was that the election was fundamentally flawed. But there were differing positions on who actually won the election. Was it Tinubu or Peter Obi? No mention was made of Atiku Abubakar. Whatever may have been the case, the concern was on whether the open roguery that took place in 2023 has come to stay. If it has, as some people feared, then the country is doomed to perdition. Such a situation could ultimately eventuate in a synchronized national crisis that will be impossible to manage.
But those who still have some hope for Nigeria think that the present situation is not irredeemable. They said they will use this week’s election in Edo State as a test case. Will the electoral commission headed by Mahmood Yakubu which gave Nigeria a sham election on February 25, 2023 redeem its shattered image with the Edo election? Already, there are feelers from different quarters that the election will be manipulated in favour of the All Progressives Congress (APC). The game plan, some said, is to lay the foundation and pave way for APC’s victory in the 2023 presidential polls. The argument is that Edo people have never been fans of Tinubu, even before he became president. The man he backed in the 2020 governorship election against Godwin Obaseki, Pastor Osagie Ize-Iyamu, lost roundly. In 2023, Edo State proved to be one of the strongholds of the Labour Party. There, Peter Obi trounced Tinubu mercilessly.
But there is a different reality on ground today. Tinubu is President and is obviously working towards reelection in 2027. Some analysts believe that he is likely going to ensure that his APC takes control of states where it is known to be weak. Edo is one of such states. If things should go the way they went in 2023, Mahmood Yakubu could just hand over the state to APC whether its candidate wins the election or not. Ugly scenarios such as this are being contemplated. This was at the root of our concern. Will Nigeria strive to get it right in the coming years or will the rape and despoliation that took place in 2023 continue and become the new normal? The concern inherent in this question pulsates. It resonates in every aspect of our national life, be it politics or the economy.
QUOTE:
“Will Nigeria strive to get it right in the coming years or will the rape and despoliation that took place in 2023 continue and become the new normal? The concern inherent in this question pulsates. It resonates in every aspect of our national life.”
