In the early 2010s, Nigeria was a rising star in Africa’s economic story. The country was not just the most populous on the continent — it was also one of the fastest-growing economies in the world.
By 2014, under the leadership of Goodluck Jonathan and Ngozi Okonjo-Iweala as Finance Minister, Nigeria was ranked the third fastest-growing economy globally, with GDP growth exceeding 6%. Investors were bullish. The world took notice.
Fast-forward to 2025, and Nigeria is a shadow of that potential. Once on equal footing with countries like Indonesia, Vietnam, and even Malaysia regarding economic promise, Nigeria now faces a brutal reality: we missed the oil boom, failed to invest in our people, and allowed poor policies to drag the nation backward. While other nations have used their natural resource wealth to uplift millions, Nigeria has only widened its poverty gap.
The Oil Boom That Passed Us By
Over the last two years, global oil prices have experienced multiple surges. From the aftermath of COVID-19 to the supply disruptions caused by the Russia-Ukraine war and now OPEC+ maneuvering, oil-exporting countries have enjoyed windfalls. Saudi Arabia, for instance, funneled oil profits into new megacities, tech, and clean energy investments. Angola restructured its oil sector and attracted fresh capital. Even war-torn Iraq managed to increase exports and foreign reserves.
But Nigeria? We saw the same price spikes, but nothing changed.
Why? Because years of mismanagement, oil theft, pipeline vandalism, and underinvestment in exploration and refining have crippled our ability to benefit. While others exported more, we could barely meet our quota. Our oil rigs went quiet. Our refineries stayed broken. We still import fuel.
Despite oil prices hovering above $80 per barrel, Nigeria’s production remained stuck around 1.4 million barrels per day, far below the 2.5 million barrels we once produced. That’s a missed opportunity worth billions of dollars.
An Economy Stuck in Reverse
Since 2015, Nigeria has consistently underperformed under the APC-led government. GDP growth slowed and then contracted in multiple quarters. Inflation hit record highs—over 30% by 2024. Unemployment soared. And the naira? It collapsed under poor monetary policy, dropping from ₦197/$1 in 2015 to over ₦1,400/$1 by 2025.
Compare this with Vietnam, which was once similar to Nigeria in per capita income and development stage. Today, Vietnam is a manufacturing hub, an education leader in Southeast Asia, and a digital economy hotspot. Foreign direct investment is booming. Their economy grew by over 8% in 2022 alone.
Meanwhile, Nigeria is begging for foreign loans to pay salaries.
Education and Human Capital Neglected
One of the clearest signs of leadership failure is the state of our education sector. UNESCO recommends that countries invest 15–20% of their national budget in education. Nigeria consistently budgets less than 7%.
In 2025, millions of Nigerian children are out of school, and our universities suffer frequent strikes and poor funding. Young people now flee the country en masse — the “Japa” wave — because they see no future here. Doctors, engineers, IT professionals, and students are leaving for Canada, the UK, and Australia.
Compare that to Indonesia, which now ranks among the top global economies. The country increased investments in education, STEM, and technical skills and partnered with the private sector to create jobs. Today, Indonesian youth build software, launch startups, and design infrastructure. Their government provided the platform, while ours gave excuses.
Public and Private Sector Disconnect
Nigeria’s private sector has always shown resilience from fintech like Flutterwave to manufacturers in Aba and Kano, Nigerians hustle. But bad policy keeps pulling them back. Poor power supply, inconsistent FX policies, and high interest rates have made doing business nearly impossible. SMEs fold every day.
The public sector? Bloated, inefficient, and corrupt. Civil service reforms promised since 2016 never materialized. Ghost workers still draw salaries. Politicians continue to live large while ordinary Nigerians face food insecurity, joblessness, and a broken healthcare system.
Worse still, instead of supporting local production, government policies often favor importation or impose tariffs that hurt rather than help.
The Road Not Taken
Nigeria had all the tools to transform: oil wealth, a young population, fertile land, and a vibrant culture. Instead, we wasted our oil windfalls, failed to build sustainable infrastructure, and watched other nations leap ahead.
If we followed through on reforms, invested in education, cleaned up the oil sector, and supported innovation, we could compete with Brazil, Turkey, and Indonesia today. Instead, we are now compared with failing states and distressed economies.
It’s Not Too Late — But Time Is Running Out
The lesson from the missed oil boom is clear: natural resources alone are insufficient. Good leadership, strategic investments, and strong institutions are what drive growth.
Nigeria can still course-correct. If properly managed, the Dangote Refinery can help us stop fuel imports. Investing in education and vocational training can rebuild our workforce. And reforming the oil sector can boost production and revenue.
But it will take more than talk. It will take genuine political will — and the courage to do what should have been done 10 years ago.
Until then, Nigeria’s story will remain one of lost potential, while the rest of the world moves on without us.
