Nigeria’s external reserves could decline to $47 billion by the end of 2026 as rising spending needs and external risks put pressure on the country’s foreign currency buffer.
The latest outlook comes despite a strong recovery in reserves, which climbed to $49.4 billion at the end of March 2026 from $32 billion in April 2024.
Even with a projected decline, the reserve level would still provide cover for about seven months of external payments, a position considered stronger than many peers in the same rating category.
Recent reforms by the Central Bank of Nigeria have helped improve market stability and support the naira. However, analysts warn that fiscal strain and global vulnerabilities could lead to moderate currency pressure in the months ahead.
The News Chronicle understands that while reserve growth has strengthened confidence, concerns remain around government finances, inflation, and the ability to sustain foreign inflows needed to defend recent gains.
Nigeria’s reserves hit a multi year high of $50.45 billion in February before easing slightly in April. The apex bank had earlier projected a rise to $51.04 billion by year end, but changing economic conditions may test that forecast.
The broader outlook for the economy remains mixed. Inflation is expected to slow compared with previous years, while growth is projected to stay above 4 percent, supported partly by oil sector activity.
Still, weak revenue generation, insecurity, and governance challenges continue to weigh on investor sentiment.
