There has never been any love lost between America and Russia. The power tussle for relevance and authority between both superpowers has become very frosty with Russia’s invasion of Ukraine. As the war between the two countries rages, America and Europe’s support for Ukraine will only ensure that this conflict will not end anytime soon and that the war theatre would also be extended to other parts of the globe.
The ouster of President Mohamed Bazoum in July by General Abdourahmane Tchiani, the Nigerien military leader, has the potential of creating a veritable ground for the re-enactment of the Russia/Ukraine conflict and might as well plunge countries within West Africa, especially Nigeria, into another protracted conflict which we can ill-afford.
The reason for the worry is not far-fetched. Nigeria, for instance, is too terrorised having been plagued by attacks of terrorists, bandits, and all manners of security challenges to be thrown yet into another conflict. The Economic Community of West African States (ECOWAS), is spoiling for a fight against the juntas in Niger. And for all intents and purposes, ECOWAS is effectively Nigeria. Can we afford this distraction at a time when our military has been stretched thin in several parts of the country trying to curtail insecurity?
Can Nigeria carry the burden of another war, of a greater scale and magnitude than that of Liberia and Sierra Leone put together at a time when Nigerians are grappling with hunger, poverty, and an economy that is sliding southwards at a rapid level?
Before Niger, Burkina Faso’s army ousted President Roch Kabore in January 2022. They blamed him for failing to contain violence by Islamist militants. Coup leader Lieutenant Colonel Paul-Henri Damiba pledged to restore security, but attacks worsened, eroding morale in the armed forces and leading to a second coup eight months later when current junta leader, Captain Ibrahim Traore, seized power in September following a mutiny.
In Mali, a group of colonels led by Assimi Goita ousted President Ibrahim Boubacar Keita in August 2020. The coup followed anti-government protests over deteriorating security, contested legislative elections, and allegations of corruption.
Under pressure from Mali’s West African neighbours, the junta agreed to cede power to a civilian-led interim government tasked with overseeing an 18-month transition to democratic elections in February 2022. But the coup leaders clashed with the interim president, retired Colonel Bah Ndaw, and engineered a second coup in May 2021. Goita, who had served as interim vice president, was elevated to the presidency.
Chad had an unconstitutional change of government led by Lieutenant General Mahamat Idriss Déby after his father’s death in 2021. Under Chadian law, the Speaker of Parliament should have become president.
In Guinea, Colonel Mamady Doumbouya ousted President Alpha Conde in September 2021. A year earlier, Conde had changed the constitution to circumvent limits that would have prevented him from standing for a third term, triggering widespread rioting.
Meanwhile, while these West African states have been under military rule, no resistance came from ECOWAS. One may want to ask, why now? Or is ECOWAS saying it has now decided to put an end to the spate of coups across the sub-region? How far can ECOWAS and the African Union go to also address issues of sit-tight leaders who have continually breached the laws of their countries just to perpetuate their grip on power? How long will ECOWAS and AU continue to look away while corrupt and inept leaders plunder the resources of their countries?
Arguments may be made about the sovereignty of nations from external interference, but if Africa must move forward then, it must do so collectively because the continent is burdened and stagnated by plots from outside of the continent. Military intervention is not desirable just as subversion of the will of the people through electoral fraud, extension of tenure, and corruption are abominable and unacceptable.
Undesirable as their intervention may be, the truth most often than not, is that these coupists often ride on the sentiments of the people and are often celebrated when they seize power. There is no foolproof measure against coups, but poor governance, corruption provide the basis for which they anchor their illegality.
African leaders must begin to address those issues that are holding us back on the continent. They must begin to understand that they have a social contract with the people to deliver the dividends of democracy to the people and respect the sanctity of the rule of law and the constitutions of their respective countries.
In Nigeria, for instance, people have always trooped to the streets to welcome military interventions in the past, not because they are really better but because at the point of their intervention, any government apart from the reigning government was desired. That is what General Tchiani and his men are enjoying in Niger. They are currently mobilising the people to volunteer in defence of their government. That is from where they are drawing their legitimacy.
Meanwhile, Niger is so complicated and complex that it must require the ECOWAS and President Tinubu to think through the complex web around which Niger’s case is intertwined.
The United States has about 1,100 troops in Niger, including a drone base, helping the country’s military battle Islamist insurgents linked to the Islamic State and al-Qaeda.
The French military also has two permanent military bases in the Sahel region, one of which is in the capital of Niger, Niamey, which includes the main air base for the Barkhane Operation, equipped with 6 Reaper drones, 7 Mirage fighters, a combat unit that complements the French military unit at the base located near the area known as the “Three Borders” (Mali, Burkina Faso, and Niger).
Added to this, is the fact that Russia is desperately seeking allies from the continent in its battle of wits against America and NATO.
Meanwhile, Gen. Tchiani and his men are pandering and gravitating towards Russia and to some extent China and nations that have frosty relationships with America and some European countries just like the military juntas of Burkina Faso, Mali, and Guinea.
Following the expiration of an ECOWAS ultimatum, the group has activated a “standby force” to restore democracy in Niger but has yet to deploy it.
President Tinubu must also realise that irrespective of what the governors of the seven states bordering Niger may be telling him to his face, the sentiment on the ground is that when
push comes to shove there is no telling where the loyalty of these northern states lies. They have spoken in no unmistakable terms that a fight against Niger is a fight against them.
Now, everyone knows why former President Muhammadu Buhari was more inclined towards Niger than he was to Nigeria, especially the south of the nation. We also now know where those millions of votes, as well as census figures, the northern elite often brag about are coming from.
Add these to the current challenges facing the nation with spiraling inflation, free fall of the naira, high cost of living as a result of the cost of fuel, and the fact that the outcome of the election that brought Tinubu to office is still being bitterly contested, then you realise we are having more in our hands to worry about.
One thing is for sure, the worst form of democracy is still better than the best form of the military government, but we have also to be circumspect not to think that the only way we can check the incursion of the military into government is by sending troops after them. West African and African leaders must wake up to the reality of a wave of change across the world. One way to help check these sad developments remains that Africa must begin to put an end to corruption and poor leadership which has left the continent derelict, impoverished, and pauperised for so long by sit-tight corrupt leadership.
