Nigeria’s December 2025 inflation figures are expected to record a temporary and technical increase driven by a statistical base effect rather than renewed price pressures, according to the National Bureau of Statistics.
The NBS explained that the projected rise is artificial and linked to the recent rebasing of the Consumer Price Index, stressing that it does not reflect a deterioration in underlying economic conditions.
Speaking at a stakeholder session organised by the Nigerian Economic Summit Group, the agency’s Head of Price Statistics, Ayo Anthony, noted that year on year inflation may appear unusually high because of arithmetic comparisons with a low base period.
He clarified that the spike would be a one off event and that both the adjusted figures and the official headline inflation would be released for transparency. According to him, a reversal is expected in subsequent months as the data normalises.
The News Chronicle understands that the adjustment follows the completion of a new price reference period between January and December 2024, which necessitated a re referencing of the CPI after Nigeria rebased its inflation data last year for the first time in 15 years.
Inflation had slowed through most of 2025, easing to 14.45 percent in November from 16.1 percent in October, supported by moderating food and energy prices. Analysts have cautioned, however, that the disinflation trend was largely statistical.
Despite the expected December jump, economists say Nigeria’s inflation outlook remains on a downward path, helped by a stronger naira, softer food prices and declining fuel costs, with headline inflation projected to stabilise from January 2026.
