It’s six months to the 2023 presidential election, and the buzz about who presides over the affairs of Nigeria at the expiration of the present administration’s term has heightened, especially with the economic and socio-economic woes plaguing the nation. From terrorism to inflation to countless subnational, political, socio-political and religious skirmishes, Nigeria is at the verge of collapse and Nigerians are clamouring for a messiah. February 2023, therefore, offers us a rare chance to right the wrongs of our collective choices at the 2015 presidential poll.
A peculiar thing about the forthcoming presidential election is that it is a clear-cut departure from the two-horse race as was the case in 2015 and 2019. It is a four-man race between three former governors and a former vice-president. Though it is difficult to place a finger on their prospects for the office, the candidates and their supporters are already at loggerheads with one another. While the candidates are making multifold promises to the electorates, their supporters are massaging their egos. Interestingly, by crook or by hook, one of these candidates will succeed the incumbent president next year—whether or not he is capable of managing our troubled economy.
The presidential election of 2023 will be a watershed in the history of Nigeria’s democracy. Apart from determining who will either save Nigeria from sinking deeper into a slump or plunge the nation deeper into the deep blue sea, three reasons account for this.
First, the presidential polls will determine if the ruling party, the All Progressives Congress (APC), will remain in power. The party had come into power in 2015 to save Nigeria from the 16 years of misgovernance by the Peoples Democratic Party (PDP). Much to the chagrin of Nigerians, the performance of the APC in the last seven years is the true definition of ‘misgovernance’. Despite the dissatisfaction of Nigerians with the party, the APC is intent on not relinquishing power come 2023.
Few months ago, they were reports of President Muhammadu Buhari warning the Progressives Governors’ Forum—an association of state governors elected on the platform of the APC—not to allow the PDP get its ‘dirty hands’ on power again. Mr President was quoted as saying, ‘Our aim must be to hand over to an APC government at the center and the great majority of states. We must not, by default, allow the PDP to get its dirty hands on the government again and return us to the Stone Age.’
This offers a good explanation to the reason the party was, prior to the presidential primary election, saddled with the exacting task of fielding a formidable candidate that would guarantee its victory at the polls in 2023. Not surprisingly, it also informed the intention of the presidential candidate of the party, Asiwaju Bola Ahmed Tinubu, to sustain President Buhari’s legacy.
Given that only an APC faithful is adjudged to be the best candidate to build on the foundation Mr President has laid, the party and its candidate are prepared to go to any length to retain power beyond 2023. However, Nigerians will have to decide whether or not the party stays or leaves come February 2023.
Secondly, the presidential election will determine if the main opposition party, PDP, will return to power. PDP was enjoying 16 years of uninterrupted power until its abysmal defeat in 2015. Though it is called the ‘people’s party’, the people, unexpectedly, ended their 16-year-old blissful union with the party and went after what was to be later realised as shadows.
The party’s attempt at a comeback in 2019 was futile, but it is optimistic that, since the spell of the ruling party on Nigerians has broken as a result of the seven years of hardship and sufferings, 2023 will be in their favour. Nevertheless, how the party hopes to achieve this with Alhaji Atiku Abubakar, who was squared up against President Buhari in 2019 but failed to return the party back to the presidential villa, remains elusive.
While it is certain that, in the last seven years, Nigerians have learnt that all that glitters is not gold, the 2023 presidential polls will determine if the PDP will make a triumphant and glorious return to power, especially given the fact that many Nigerians are still enjoying their romance with the APC.
Finally, 2023 presidential poll will determine if another party will come to power. I had earlier stated that the forthcoming presidential election is a sharp departure from the 2015 and 2019 elections. Unlike 2015 and 2019, 2023 election is a four-horse race. Two of the candidates belong to the mainstream parties—APC and PDP—while the other two are running under the umbrella of what critics have dubbed ‘structureless’ parties—Labour Party (LP) and New Nigeria’s People’s Party (NNPP).
Notwithstanding that they are underdogs, Peter Obi of LP and Rabiu Kwankwaso of NNPP are enjoying massive support from Nigerians. Without a doubt, the growing discontent of Nigerians with the APC and the PDP account for this. Hence, there is every reason to believe that there is going to be a paradigm shift because those we have trusted on the current paradigm have hugely disappointed us.
Whatever be the triggers of the desire to retreat from the familiar path and take the road less traveled in 2023, one thing is certain, which is that it’s outcome herald the emergence of a new Nigeria. And while there is no doubt that a new Nigeria is the dream of a greater number of Nigerians, the electoral value of Peter Obi and Rabiu Kwankwaso would be put to the test at the 2023 presidential election.
In conclusion, considering that the fate of Nigerians is inextricably interwoven with the quality of leadership at the center, the 2023 presidential election will be a zero-sum contest in which the Nigerian public either win all or lose all.
Ezinwanne can be reached via ezinwanne.dominion@gmail.com
