‘President Tinubu and the APC will lose the 2027 Presidential election if the Opposition Unites and Presents an Atiku/Obi ticket under the SDP’
‘There will be a political Tsunami in the 2027 Presidential election’
Nigeria’s democracy is a unique one. It is a democracy where one can go to bed as a member of the PDP and woke up the morning after as a member of the APC. The political parties are completely bereft of any ideology so there is no bond between the party and its faithfuls. No ideology that glues the members to the party.
It is a free-for-all.
The only ideology in all the political parties is what-do-I-gain rather than what-do-I-give-to-the-nation (arguably save for the PRP which was founded by the late Mallam Aminu Kano based on service not self-aggrandisement). The typical self – centredness of Nigeria’s politicians can destroy any democracy. It is not good for Nigeria’s nay any democracy.
Nigeria is arguably the only democracy in the whole world in which one can contest on the platform of political party A, win the election based on the manifesto of party A and be sworn into office only for the person to decamp to party B without losing their seat. This is abracadabra democracy.
In fact after corruption, defection or cross-carpeting is the second most serous bane of Nigeria’s politics. This is moreso when juxtaposed with the fact that politicians purposefully in Nigeria turn the law on its head simply to justify their selfish interests. Defections are now legalised by our politicians when constitutionally they are not.
Going by section 68(1) of the constitution, federal republic of Nigeria 1999 (as amended), any person who defects to another political party which didn’t sponsor him/her to that election before the expiration of his term automatically loses his seat. Although this section applies to the House of Representatives, it is also applicable to other political offices.
This gale of defections is unfortunate and meant to foist a one-party state on the nation, divide the North and South along political lines and ensure in a smooth sail for the APC in the 2027 Presidential election but it will be resisted by the good people of Nigeria who are tired of this abracadabra democracy.
These defections by abracadabra politicians from the opposition PDP and other political parties to the ruling APC for personal interests will not support the APC in President Tinubu’s quest to win the 2027 Presidential election ‘at all costs.
To the contrary, the defections will work against the APC because the 2027 elections is between the Nigerian people and President Tinubu. It is not between the people and the political parties. It is between the Nigerian people and President Tinubu’s removal of fuel subsidy which has caused unexplainable hardship to the average Nigerian.
Partisanship will not feature prominently in the 2027 general election especially in the Presidential election.
For those who present the unconstitutional and flawed argument that the South should complete years, they should remember that there is no line in the 1999 constitution that says when the North completes 8 years, the South must complete 8 years. Perhaps these emergency defenders of the Tinubu administration should be reminded that power rotation is not in Nigeria’s constitution 1999 (as amended). Moreso, if Tinubu must complete 8 years, then there is no need to hold the Presidential election in 2027. Why waste resources in an election? Simply swear in Tinubu for another term since he ‘must’ complete 8 years. No need for any election since it is sacrosanct that Tinubu must complete 8 years.
Did I hear you say ‘That is in a normal election but Nigeria’s election is not normal as votes will not count’ Did you also added ‘The APC will rig the election?
I remind you that rigging has its limits. This time will be different as people will vote and stand to protect their votes. Frustrated Nigerians are indeed angry and waiting for all those politicians who conspired to bring our country to its present deplorable state to move enmasse to the APC and vote all of them out in 2027 in one fell swoop. We saw something like that happen in the last Presidential election in 2023 when the ruling APC lost the Presidential election some states.
Even the unconstitutional excesses of Seyi Tinubu, the President’s son are enough to cause an electoral revolt against President Tinubu and the APC.
*When the people vote and resolve to protect their votes, the riggers will have no option but to let go.*
Remember, former President Jonathan is believed to have used $2.5 billion to fund his re-election campaign in 2015, sharing money to politicians and marabouts to help him rig the 2015 election and manipulate the process but ended up losing the election in style.
For the PDP, it is game over. The party is dead and buried as FCT minister Nyesom Wike has been able to successfully carry out the task assigned to him by President Tinubu to ensure that the PDP doesn’t breath and doesn’t present a Presidential candidate in 2027.
Wike has now effectively made the PDP an outpost of the APC.
The PDP will not present a Presidential candidate in 2027 and will effectively endorse President Tinubu for reelection. What will be left of the PDP after the 2027 election will be carcass.
Early this week, the Delta state governor Sheriff Oborevwori
decamped or cross-carpeted from the PDP which sponsored him in the 2023 general election and under which he won the guber election to the ruling APC. Governor Oborevwori should have all of us worried by his self-serving and non ideological defection to the APC. More worrisome after Oborevwori’s defection is the defection of his boss, Ifeanyi Okowa who is clearly inspired to join the APC by fear of the EFCC and the corruption cases hanging on his neck which are currently in court. Remember, the former APC chairman the so-called comrade Adams Oshiomhole said in January 2019 that ‘Anybody who joins the APC will have all his sins forgiven and be decorated with a sainthood’
In the coming weeks, more defections to the APC are on the way but that will increase people’s anger against the APC and inspire the people to vote against the ruling party. More defections against the APC will continue to increase the people’s frustrations against the ruling party towards the 2027 elections.
Without doubt, the average Nigerian is angry with the APC and with the Tinubu administration’s poverty-spreading and hardship-promoting economic policies. These policies include inter alia:
– Very high insecurity leading to an average of 100 Nigerians killed almost weekly by bandits, terrorists and secessionists.
– People cannot feed leading to high suicide levels.
– Removal of fuel subsidy
– Floatation of the exchange rate of the Naira leading to very high exchange rate.
– Increase in the prices of goods and services by about 300%
– High electricity tariff
– High University tuition fees
– High taxes on manufacturing companies leading to high prices of essential commodities
– High charges by mobile network providers MTN, GLO etc
The political consciousness of the average Nigerian has increased tremendously since 2015 when the ruling PDP lost to the APC which was formed barely few years before the election. It was APC’s first election contest in 2015 and the party won because the people were sick and tired of the PDP.
In retrospect, the 2023 Presidential election has shown that it is not the number of state governors that determine whether or not a political party will win the Presidential election in that state.
The APC lost the following states in 2023 despite having sitting governors.
11 STATES APC LOST IN THE 2023 PRESIDENTIAL ELECTION DESPITE HAVING SITTING GOVERNORS:?
Nassarawa (APC Gov) – Labour won
Kano (APC Gov) – NNPP won
Kebbi (APC Gov) – PDP won
Lagos (APC Gov) – Labour won
Katsina (APC Gov) – PDP won
Yobe (APC Gov) – PDP won
Kaduna (APC Gov) – PDP won
Gombe (APC Gov) – PDP won
Cross River (APC Gov) – Labour won
Imo (APC Gov) – Labour won
Plateau (APC Gov) – Labour won
6 STATES PDP LOST IN THE 2023 PRESIDENTIAL ELECTION DESPITE HAVING SITTING GOVERNORS:
Delta (PDP Gov) – Labour won
Ebonyi (PDP Gov) – Labour won
Taraba (PDP Gov) – Labour won
Abia (PDP Gov) – Labour won
Edo (PDP Gov) – Labour won
Enugu (PDP Gov) – Labour won
1 STATE APGA LOST IN THE 2023 PRESIDENTIAL ELECTION DESPITE HAVING A SITTING GOVERNOR:
Anambra (APGA Gov) – Labour won
This data indicate that having a sitting governor doesn’t necessarily result in victory for the party in the Presidential election in that state.
Since 2015, election outcome in Nigeria is more to do with resentment towards the party at the centre and/or the support a particular candidate enjoys in that state.
Most of the ‘state capture’ by the Labour Party in the 2023 Presidential election particularly in the South east is more to do with the fact that Peter Obi presented an option that the electorate in that zone consider viable.
Once the opposition is able to win the Presidential election in the respective states, it will resonate to other elections viz Gubernatorial, senatorial, HoR and state houses of assembly.
Indeed, the opposition needs to present a formidable Northern candidate (either from the NW or NE zones) as Presidential candidate and an equally formidable candidate from the South east as running mate.
Historically, the political equation has always been the North/South East at the centre while the South West stays in opposition. It was President Tinubu who single handedly brought the South west to national politics as a vehicle to achieve his ambition of ruling the country as President
By and large, the Atiku/Obi ticket will be unbeatable. From our projections and based on an Atiku/Obi ticket, the projected votes-spread per state in the 2027 Presidential election regardless of any defections will be as follows:
2027 PRESIDENTIAL ELECTION:
Abia – Opposition will win
Adamawa – Opposition will win
Akwa Ibom- Opposition will win
Anambra – Opposition will win
Bauchi – Opposition will win
Bayelsa – Opposition will win
Benue – Opposition will win
Borno – APC will win
Cross River – Opposition will win
Delta – Opposition will win
Ebonyi – Opposition will win
Edo – Opposition
Ekiti – APC will win
Enugu – Opposition will win
FCT – Opposition will win
Gombe – APC will win
Imo – Opposition will win
Jigawa – APC will win
Kaduna – Opposition will win
Kano – APC will win
Katsina – APC will win
Kebbi – Opposition will win
Kogi – APC will win
Kwara – Opposition will win
Lagos – APC will win
Nassarawa – Opposition will win
Niger – APC will win
Ondo – APC will win
Ogun – APC will win
Osun – Opposition will win
Oyo – APC will win
Plateau – Opposition will win
Rivers – Opposition will win
Sokoto – APC will win
Taraba – Opposition will win
Yobe – APC will win
Zamfara – APC will win
By our projection, it will be a landslide victory for the opposition
coalition of political parties presumably under the SDP in the 2027 Presidential election. The opposition will win 21 states and the FCT while the ruling APC will win 15 states.
In fact, Nigerians are hungry for change and eager to vent all their frustrations since 1999 on the APC (including their anger on PDP’s rule 1999 – 2015). If the opposition can stay the course, remain United and present an Atiku/Obi ticket in the 2027 Presidential election, President Tinubu and the APC will be defeated by 12 noon on election day.
