It is difficult to say with certainty what the chances are of the All Progressive Congress (APC) government changing hands in the near future. However, there are a number of factors that could influence the outcome.
A factor is the popularity of the opposition. If the opposition parties are united and popular, then they are more likely to be able to challenge the APC. However, if the opposition is divided and unpopular, then the APC is more likely to retain power.
In other words, the APC’s chances of retaining power will be significantly reduced if the opposition is able to unite behind a strong candidate and mount a credible challenge.
The opposition has been fractured in recent years, but there are signs that it may have to start to coalesce around some of the leading contenders for Nigeria’s presidency.
The effectiveness of anti-corruption measures is another factor.
If corruption allegations continue to dog the APC government, it may undermine public trust and make it more difficult for them to win support. However, in the face of mounting corruption, public perceptions of the fairness of the election may play another factor.
The outcome of the election in the near future may also depend on whether voters believe that the process is fair and transparent. If there are credible allegations of voter fraud or rigging, which leads to widespread protests, this may delegitimize the result of the election, proving that the power of the people is more than the people in power.
There are increasing signs that corruption is becoming a more salient issue in Nigerian politics. A recent survey found that corruption is the second most important issue for voters, after the economy.
An advantage APC has is that the party is well-organized and holds a strong base of support in regional and rural areas. The party also has a lot of money at its disposal, which it can use to campaign, buy votes, and pave its way to victory.
It is too early to say definitively whether the APC government will change hands in the near future. However, the factors discussed above suggest that the outcome will be determined by a complex interplay of political, economic, and social forces.