Arise News Nigeria hosted a News Night segment on January 20, 2025, featuring Professor Jideofor Adibe and Ambassador Joe Keshi to analyze Donald Trump’s second inauguration and its implications for Africa and the global landscape.
The discussion primarily relied on Professor Adibe’s analysis, which provided a sophisticated examination of Trump’s unpredictable nature and possible effects on Nigeria and the rest of Africa, even though both experts offered insightful criticism.
Trump’s Unpredictability and Transactional Approach
Professor Jideofor Adibe, a scholar from Nasarawa State University, described Trump as a highly transactional leader, making him predictable and unpredictable depending on the context. “Trump’s style is driven by brinksmanship—pushing situations to the edge to gain leverage in negotiations,” he noted, referencing Trump’s 1987 book The Art of the Deal.
Adibe highlighted Trump’s focus on deals over diplomacy, citing the 2018 Prosper Africa initiative as an example. This program, aimed at fostering partnerships between African and American businesses, facilitated over 1,800 deals across 49 African countries. While Prosper Africa garnered bipartisan support, Adibe expressed skepticism about Trump’s broader commitment to Africa, pointing out his lack of attention to the continent during his first term.
Immigration Policies: A Looming Concern
A central theme of the discussion was Trump’s hardline stance on immigration. Professor Adibe warned that tightened immigration policies could significantly affect African remittance inflows. He referenced data from Nigeria’s Central Bank, which recorded a 61% increase in remittance inflows in 2024, rising from $2.2 billion to $4.22 billion—a trend partially attributed to the “Japa syndrome,” or the increasing emigration of Nigerians.
“If Trump tightens immigration further, this could potentially reverse the gains in remittance inflows, impacting Nigeria’s economy and other African countries reliant on diaspora contributions,” Adibe explained. He emphasized that while Trump’s policies might initially target Latin America, African migrants would inevitably feel the ripple effects.
Contradictions in Policy Statements
Adibe also scrutinized Trump’s inaugural speech, pointing out contradictions that raise questions about his administration’s direction. “You cannot speak of peace while inciting tensions globally, as seen in his rhetoric about annexing territories like the Panama Canal,” he argued. He also highlighted Trump’s contradictory energy policies—supporting fossil fuel development while promoting electric vehicles—as emblematic of his inconsistent governance style.
The Global Implications of a Resurgent Trump
Adibe’s analysis extended to Trump’s approach to global conflicts, particularly the war in Ukraine. He argued that Trump is unlikely to take a dramatic stance on the issue due to longstanding U.S. policies like the Truman Doctrine, which mandates resistance to Russian expansionism. “Despite his unpredictable rhetoric, Trump is constrained by historic doctrines and geopolitical realities,” Adibe said, referencing Trump’s shifting positions after engagements with leaders like the German Chancellor.
Lessons for Nigeria
The discussion also touched on Nigeria’s democratic processes. While Ambassador Keshi reflected on the seamless nature of the U.S. transition of power, Adibe used the moment to call for deeper institutional reforms in Nigeria. “The U.S. transition showcases global standards Nigeria should aspire to, especially in ensuring peaceful power transfers and reducing political friction,” Adibe noted.
Conclusion
As Trump embarks on his second term, Africa must brace itself for an administration characterized by unpredictability and transactional diplomacy. While programs like Prosper Africa offer opportunities, the continent’s leaders must proactively engage to safeguard their interests amidst shifting global dynamics.
Professor Jideofor Adibe’s insightful commentary underscores the need for vigilance and strategic planning in responding to U.S. policies and positioning Africa as a key player in the global order. For now, as Adibe aptly summarized, “The world is watching and waiting to see what Trump’s second term will bring.”
