This report is from today’s TNC’s Daily Open, our international markets update. TNC Daily Open keeps investors informed on everything they need to know, no matter where they are.
The Wall Street cliche “never bet against the American consumer” is still somewhat valid. Despite being lower than anticipated, February’s retail sales showed growth. For the skeptics, that would be like frantically looking for a bright side. It could be. However, the gloomy clouds are more menacing than usual because of the tariffs imposed by US President Donald Trump.
According to polls like the University of Michigan’s, tariffs are likely to be passed on to the customer as a tax on imported goods, affecting consumer mood. Trump’s tariffs will create some uncertainty, even according to Kevin Hassett, director of the U.S. National Economic Council.
This has already caused the Organisation for Economic Co-operation and Development to downgrade its growth outlook for the United States. Although the Trump administration is optimistic that equities will regain their footing, strategists may lower their market projection if the outlook does not improve.
What To Note Today
The second successful session for US markets
On Monday, U.S. markets increased. The Dow Jones Industrial Average increased by 0.85%, the S&P 500 by 0.64%, and the Nasdaq Composite by 0.31%. All three indexes saw advances for the second straight session. The regional Stoxx 600 index for Europe increased by 0.79%. Following a lower revision to the British defence company’s sales projection for the year, QinetiQ’s shares fell over 21%, plunging to the bottom of the Stoxx 600.
The OECD lowers its growth projection
Global GDP growth was predicted by the Organisation for Economic Co-operation and Development to reach 3.1% this year, down from 3.3% in December. Additionally, it lowered its forecast for the growth of the U.S. GDP from 2.4% to 2.2% in 2025. The OECD stated on Monday that sentiment is being affected by “increased geopolitical and policy uncertainty and higher trade barriers in several G20 economies.”
Consumers in the US spend more
The Commerce Department’s advanced reading on Monday showed that U.S. retail sales increased 0.2% in February, falling short of the 0.6% increase predicted by the Dow Jones. Nevertheless, the number is better than the 1.2% drop in January, sharply revised lower than the initial prediction of a 0.9% reduction.
Uncertainty regarding tariffs
According to Kevin Hassett, director of the U.S. National Economic Council, there will be more uncertainty around tariffs before things settle down. “There will be some uncertainty between now and April 2,” Hassett told CNBC, alluding to the day Trump is expected to unveil his “reciprocal” tariff proposals. However, Hassett continued, “markets will realise that the reciprocal trade policy makes a lot of sense as April approaches.”
Trump blames Iran for the Houthi attacks
Following U.S. President Donald Trump’s statement on his social media platform Truth Social that the United States would view any attack by the Houthis, a terrorist group in Yemen, “as being a shot fired from the weapons and leadership of IRAN,” oil prices increased on Monday. The closing price of U.S. crude oil futures was $67.58 a barrel, up 40 cents, or 0.6%. At $71.07 a barrel, the global benchmark Brent rose 49 cents, or 0.69%.
Goldman’s “awkward” dot plot
Members of the Federal Open Market Committee will present an updated “dot plot,” a graph that displays interest rate forecasts for the upcoming years, at the end of their meeting on Wednesday. Here are several reasons why Goldman Sachs analysts think the dot plot could be “awkward.”
Other Reports
Demis Hassabis, the CEO of Google DeepMind, stated during a briefing held in the company’s London offices on Monday that he believes artificial general intelligence, which is on par with or even more intelligent than humans, would begin to appear within the next five to ten years.
Compared to some of his counterparts in the field, Hassabis’ prediction of obtaining AGI is cautious. In January, at the World Economic Forum in Davos, Switzerland, Dario Amodei, CEO of the AI firm Anthropic, told reporters that he believes a type of AI that is “better than almost all humans at almost all tasks” will emerge in the “next two or three years.”
Some tech experts believe AGI will arrive much sooner. Jeetu Patel, Cisco’s chief product officer, believes an example of artificial general intelligence might appear this year.
