Surreptitiously, Nigeria’s minister of state for Finance, Dr. Doris Uzoka-Anite announced that Nigeria’s aspirations to become a trillion dollar economy by 2030 was off the table and a new date was set for 2036. This news was carried in Punch Newspapers of 3rd January 2026. Her submission drew no ire nor discussion. No interrogation after so much noise about Nigeria becoming a trillion dollar economy from Mr President. No post mortem for Nigeria moving away from the target date. Just continuation of government business as usual.
How come Nigeria’s nominal GDP halved in the years between 2014 and 2025 so our planners can say, ‘Never Again’. Just back clapping over achieving 4 percent economic growth and 1.5 percent contribution to global economic growth. The fact is, this has happened in the past and will happen in the future if not addressed adequately.
In an article written before the minister of state for finance pronouncement, I had raised a wager between government aspirations and Dangote Group aspiring for a hundred billion dollar annual revenue by 2030 https://thenews-chronicle.com/fgns-trillion-dollar-target-vs-dangote-group-hundred-billion-dollar-target/ Not allowing the ink to dry government has thrown in the towel as reality set in. One need to ask what other government aspirations are just glib talk, made to sound good to our ears. “If I don’t give you electricity don’t re-elect me’. 3million bpd oil production target in the PIA. $50 billion bullet train to Abuja from Lagos” the list goes on.
The 2036 date of achieving a trillion dollar economy is also at risk as things are run in a nonchalant attitude amongst economic planners, with regard to achieving the required double digit economic growth. If the economy grows at an average 6 percent per annum as it did between 2003 to 2014, the GDP will stand at $600 billion by 2038 still way off from a trillion dollar economy, except. Except the naira appreciates from current value to around ₦1000 to dollar and remains at that figure for the decade. Only then will a trillion dollar nominal GDP be in view by 2036. However, would appreciating the naira to that value be salutary for the Nigerian economy over the next decade?
It is tempting for Nigeria to take this easy option of appreciating the naira by whatever means to achieve good GDP figures, after all, the halving of GDP in Nigeria was also from rapid currency depreciation that occurred in the last two years. However it is hard to imagine why appreciation of currency is the way to go for Nigeria considering the role non-oil exports must play on the road to a trillion dollar nominal GDP. Indeed Nigeria must decide how it wants to play the game between appreciation and depreciation of the naira for longer term benefits.
Na GDP growth we go chop? This is a Nigerian refrain amongst pundits and I say, yes, ‘na GDP we go chop’. Because GDP indicates how big or small the national cake we want to chop is. If it’s shrinking it means less cake to chop. If it is growing, especially much faster than population growth, it means a bigger cake is available for Nigerians to share.
Since independence Nigerian planners have refused to pay attention to the nations GDP trend. Not only in it’s totality but its nature and how it accrues. Pundits rather cherry pick or nit pick depending on where sentiments lie. GDP stats are more objective and immune from cherry or nit picking. Meaning the performance of an administration can be judged objectively.
Misplaced optimism: When our leaders began to mouth terms like double digit growth, trillion dollar economy I felt at last they are getting the importance of stats like GDP growth and per capita GDP. Not realising they were vote catching slogans. Proof of this is in the abandonment of trillion dollar economy which would have meant $4000 per capita and it’s salutary welfare dividends. If only they pursue this with the same vigour they pursue increasing tax to GDP ratio.
The implications of the retreat from the 2030 target is very grave on the living standards for the two hundred and fifty million Nigerians living by 2030. Comparable countries like Indonesia Mexico and Turkey will have economies well above two trillion dollars and per capita GDP of ten thousand dollars. Nigeria will be giants amongst dwarfs in Africa. Worse is that Nigeria will continue running it’s subsistence economy of attempting to consume what it produces and producing what it consumes. Such a warped mantra that leaves us a stunted economy that refuses to produce for the global market.
It is this much loved mantra that collapsed the value of the naira leading to a receding nominal GDP while Purchasing Power Parity PPP GDP grew from around one trillion dollars in 2014 to two and a half trillion dollar PPP GDP in 2025. Unfortunately economies are judged by nominal GDP not PPP GDP.
When Nigeria finds the reason its PPP GDP grows while its nominal GDP retracts, the country will begin to address the fundamental defect of the Nigerian economy. This divergence points to the fact that while domestic economic activities are indeed increasing our footprints in the global economic scene is totally insignificant.
Further statistics buttress this. Nigeria’s ranking is second to the last when considering the country’s participation in global trade, that is the sum of its imports and exports to GDP, crude oil exports included. We only did better than South Sudan. Leaving out oil exports, and rating only non-oil exports to GDP, it comes in at 3.8 percent of GDP. When it is boiled down to exported manufactures to GDP it is a dismal 0.5% export of manufactures to GDP! Compare this with countries like Vietnam and Indonesia at 75% and 10% exports of manufactures to GDP, respectively. This is the crux of the matter, the reason we keep receding from trillion dollar economy whenever oil prices crash.
Unfortunately this is unlikely to change anytime soon because it is not on the radar of those who drafted the country’s new industrial policy. Meaning this is the singular root cause of our debacle, a refusal to participate in global trade with more complex manufactured goods.
We have taken to heart the mantra produce what you consume and only consume what you produce, condemning the country to a subsistence existence. The new industrial policy has chosen protection of manufacturers rather than they go out there in the world to compete.
What does protectionism breed? Complacency amongst many other things. What killed our earlier industries? It wasn’t exactly a lack of protection, it was at least three other things. The Import Substitution Industrial Policy that discouraged export of higher value goods. Followed by the oil price crash of 1982/83 that led to paucity of dollars and inability of industries to finance their inputs. When oil prices crashed in 1982/83, these pampered industries had no forex-earning capacity to sustain themselves. Meanwhile, the weak currencies of emerging Asian countries made manufactured goods from those countries very cheap to bring into Nigeria further driving the nail into the coffin of Nigerian manufacturers.
Quoting the Editorial board of the Guardian Nigerian newspapers; “The failure of successive Nigerian governments to add value to the country’s numerous primary products before exporting them constitutes not just a lazy option, but a major impediment to the government’s desire for a mega-economy”, this more or less captures my submission. Has the country’s new industrial policy fully addressed this?
To be continued.
Olugbenga Jaiyesimi jerry3jaiye@gmail.com 08123709109
