Last week, I wrote that the Economic Community of West Africa’s (ECOWAS) threat to Nigerien coupists sounds eerily like the voice of Jacob and the hand of Esau. I suspected the regional body’s actions were being dictated by France. I went down history lane to show a similarity with what happened in Cote D’Ivoire in 2010 and how ECOWAS similarly threatened Laurent Gbagbo with military action were he to refuse to vacate power for Alassane Ouattara. On that occasion, France was too impatient to wait for ECOWAS and never cared to disguise its interference. It just bombed Gbagbo’s residence, sent troops to fish him out, and installed Ouattara in a matter of hours.
This time, however, France is being careful. It has been perceived – and is being constantly heckled by Africans and even Europeans – over its heavy-handed and overt interference in the politics of its former African colonies. Emmanuel Macron has cut the picture of a listening leader. He has even promised on different occasions to reshape France’s relationship with its African former colonies. Many saw his decision to allow the coup detats in Mali and Burkina Faso to stand and his respect for the coupists demands to end Operation Barkhane and withdraw French troops from their countries as a new start for the former colonial leader that is not used to countenancing or respecting the wishes of its former colonies.
But Niger is different. It is a strategic ally to France and the West in many respects. When France withdrew its troops from Mali and Burkina Faso, it moved them to Niger and Chad, whose armies have proved very useful and effective in the fight against Islamic insurgents in the Sahel. This perception has also led to the setting up of a United States military drone base in Niger. The US has also been training Nigerien troops in counter-insurgency operations. The European Union also, in its schizophrenic reaction to immigration, has been funding the Nigerien army to disrupt the migrant economy of Agadez to stem the tide of illegal immigration into Europe.
Then there is the small matter of Niger’s Uranium, which France needs for its nuclear energy industry. Although commentators have now seized on this fact to claim that France’s energy security would be in jeopardy if it loses out on Niger’s uranium, the reality is that as of 2022, Niger accounts for just 4 percent of global uranium production, far below Kazakhstan (43 percent), Canada (15 percent), Namibia (11 percent), and Australia (8 percent). The only problem is that Kazakhstan is closely aligned with Russia and if push comes to shove, France’s supply from there could be threatened. But for now, it can still do without Niger’s uranium.
Regardless, France wants the coupists out of power. It has issued statements supporting the ECOWAS ultimatum and threat of the use of military force. It has also issued statements that it will not respect any order or action by the coupists because it does not recognize their legitimacy. It sure possesses the capacity to remove the recalcitrant soldiers in a matter of hours – that may explain why the soldiers are also holding on to deposed president Bazoum as insurance – but it is constrained by public opinion and the backlash that would ensue, especially now that anti-French sentiment is at its highest in Africa. It will prefer to hide under the cloak of ECOWAS but now that ECOWAS is developing cold feet and appears to be succumbing to pressures to use diplomacy instead of military action, it is now in a bind as to how to accomplish its goals in Niger. The coming weeks would be interesting to watch.
*Are Africans now supporters of Coup detats?*
The coup in Niger and France’s reaction have unleashed a maelstrom of anti-French, anti-imperial sentiments across Africa. That is understandable. What is not understandable though is the growing support for military coups as a remedy to sit-tight leaders, bad governance, and manipulation of elections by politicians. In 1999, we reached that understanding in Nigeria after the military had thoroughly destroyed the country. But it appears some in Africa and even some in Nigeria who were born after 1999 or had no recollection of the tragedy of military rule are now posturing and signalling to the military to get involved in politics again. Sadly, as I have always believed, military coups have a contagion effect in Africa. As Latin American countries would know, military rule, no matter how benign, does not amount to any good. It would only just accelerate the journey toward a failed state status as Burkinabes and Malians are now realising.
*Review of African Political Economy Journal joins the fray*
The ROAPE Journal, even as it claims on its website, is “a socialist journal & website providing radical analysis of capitalist exploitation, oppression, and resistance.” It was Africa’s leading journal on political economy and has been the natural home for pan-Africanists, socialists, and critics of capitalism, imperialism, and Western oppression. It is not unexpected that it will weigh in on the current political imbroglio in Niger.
The journal tweeted on August 7: “Mass protest in Niger last Thursday, independence day” with a picture of Nigeriens in a 30 thousand-capacity stadium in the capital showing support for the military coup. ROAPE continued: “No to war against Niger. ECOWAS/imperialist troops would have to kill these people to achieve the goal of their war against Niger. No to War!”
The only problem was that during the era of military rule in Nigeria, ROAPE was at the vanguard of opposition against military rule, hosting debates and concluding that the “military has no role in politics”. In less than 25 years, it is doing a 180-degree turn and now sees the military as a necessary agent in the fight against imperialism. Quite impressive!
