A public policy analyst and prominent figure in the All Progressives Congress (APC), Mr Bola Babarinde, has warned that Nigeria’s ongoing tax reforms amount to half a loaf unless the solid minerals sector is fully brought into the fiscal net.
Babarinde, a former APC Chairman of the party’s South Africa Chapter, made the call in a statement issued on Friday in Lagos, stressing that sidelining mining revenues could erode fairness, social harmony and sustainable national growth.
He hailed the inauguration of the Presidential Committee on Tax Reform, led by Mr Taiwo Oyedele, as a step in the right direction, especially at a time when the country is grappling with dwindling revenues, widening inequality and an urgent need for a more balanced and effective tax system.
“The objective of the tax reform committee is sound — expand the tax net, reduce pressure on low-income earners and ensure big earners pay their fair share.
“However, a major contradiction has emerged. The solid minerals sector has been largely ignored,” Babarinde said.
According to him, Nigeria’s tax net remains threadbare despite its large population and economic potential, leaving millions of low-income earners to shoulder a burden that should be more evenly shared, while lucrative sectors slip through the cracks.
He observed that although Nigeria sits on vast deposits of solid minerals spread across different regions, the sector is largely informal and weakly regulated.
“Powerful local and foreign interests dominate mining activities, often operating illegally, while the Nigerian state earns little or nothing through taxes or royalties,” he said.
Babarinde described the situation as a double tragedy—both an economic misstep and a failure of governance—adding that illegal mining has increasingly been linked to insecurity, insurgency and terrorism in parts of the country.
“Destabilising mineral-rich areas weakens state control, fuels criminal networks and deprives government of revenue needed for security and development,” he said.
He further argued that uneven taxation of natural resources across regions poses a threat to national cohesion.
He said: “Cash crops in the South-West and oil in the South-South are heavily regulated and taxed for the benefit of the federation.
“In contrast, solid minerals, mostly found in parts of Northern Nigeria, are extracted with minimal transparency and almost no contribution to the national purse.”
Babarinde noted the irony that many communities sitting atop mineral wealth remain trapped in poverty, despite the riches beneath their soil.
“This imbalance fuels poverty, migration, insecurity and social strain, particularly in relatively prosperous regions such as the South-West.
“As new tax laws are expected to take effect from January, their success will depend on inclusiveness and political will.
“A tax reform that excludes mining is incomplete and unjust,” he said.
He cautioned that leaving these gaps unaddressed could sow seeds of long-term division and instability.
“Economists agree that solid minerals, if properly harnessed, could rival or even surpass oil revenues,” he stated.
Babarinde, who is based in South Africa, said Nigerians in the diaspora were ready to back President Bola Tinubu’s Renewed Hope agenda, pointing to South Africa as a clear example of how a non-oil economy can thrive on a well-regulated and heavily taxed mining sector.
“If South Africa can thrive on mining revenues, Nigeria can achieve even greater results with the right policies and enforcement,” he said.
Looking ahead, he said 2026 should represent a watershed moment in Nigeria’s economic management.
“It should signal one nation under one law, where all natural resources — oil, agriculture and solid minerals, are treated with the same seriousness, transparency and accountability.
“Tax reform without mining reform is reform half done. Peace without economic justice is temporary,” he said.
