In response to the prevailing sentiment that “it is the South’s turn” in 2027, a counter-argument has emerged. Many are already familiar with it: that if justice and fairness are the guiding principles, then it is actually the North’s turn.
This argument is based on the claim that since Nigeria’s return to democracy in 1999, the South has controlled presidential power for approximately 18 years:
Olusegun Obasanjo ( 8 years)
Goodluck Jonathan ( 6 years)
Bola Ahmed Tinubu (4 years)
Total: 18 years
The North, on the other hand, has held power for about 10 years:
Umaru Musa Yar’Adua (2 years)
Muhammadu Buhari (8 years)
Total: 10 years
However, this analysis does not represent an absolute truth. It is only one perspective among many, while others interpret and assess the issue differently based on their own understanding of fairness and history. For that reason, fairness demands that all competing narratives be acknowledged in order to properly evaluate the conversation, ascertain facts, and reduce conflict.
The major weakness of this perspective is that it narrows Nigerian political history to 1999, treating everything before the Fourth Republic as irrelevant or non-binding.
For instance, during the First Republic, Abubakar Tafawa Balewa served as Prime Minister of Nigeria for 8 years and 4 months, from 30 August 1957 to 15 January 1966. Although it operated under a parliamentary system, he emerged through an electoral process.
Similarly, Shehu Shagari served as President for 4 years and 3 months, from 1 October 1979 to 31 December 1983. Together, both leaders account for about 12 years and 7 months of northern civilian leadership, which significantly alters the balance presented in the earlier argument.
Yet, even this perspective often ignores the years of military rule, despite the fact that military administrations remain part of Nigeria’s political history. This is evident in the reality that former military heads of state are still members of the Council of State and are entitled to state pensions. The Council of State itself remains the country’s highest advisory body.
The military years often excluded from the discussion include:
(1) Maj. Gen. Johnson Aguiyi-Ironsi
16 Jan 1966 – 29 Jul 1966: 6 months (south)
(2) Gen. Yakubu Gowon
1 Aug 1966 – 29 Jul 1975: 9 years ( north)
(3) Gen. Murtala Muhammed
29 Jul 1975 – 13 Feb 1976: 6.5 months (South)
(4) Gen. Olusegun Obasanjo
13 Feb 1976 – 1 Oct 1979: 3 years, 7.5 months (South)
(5) Maj. Gen. Muhammadu Buhari
31 Dec 1983 – 27 Aug 1985: 1 year, 8 months (north)
(6) Gen. Ibrahim Babangida
27 Aug 1985 – 26 Aug 1993: 8 years (north)
(7) Gen. Sani Abacha
17 Nov 1993 – 8 Jun 1998: 4 years, 7 months (north)
(8) Gen. Abdulsalami Abubakar
9 Jun 1998 – 29 May 1999: 11.5 months (north).
Ultimately, this discussion is an attempt to broaden the debate by accommodating multiple perspectives and resisting selective interpretations of history. It highlights how competing narratives shape different understandings of truth, fairness, and justice. In reality, there are no universally fixed rules for measuring political balance, as people often interpret facts according to convenience, sentiment, or political interest.
If military rule and pre-1999 civilian governments are included, northerners have held power for roughly 46 years and 9 months, while southerners have held power for approximately 22 years and 8 months, a gap of about 24 years.
If the analysis is limited strictly to civilian rule from Tafawa Balewa up to 29 May 2027, when Tinubu would complete his tenure, the North would have held power for about 23.5 years, while the South would have held it for about 17 years. In that case, the North would still lead by approximately 6.5 years.
However, if the calculation begins from 1999 to the present, the South leads by 8 years.
In the end, the outcome depends entirely on where one chooses to begin the count.
Bagudu can be reached via bagudumohammed15197@gmail.com or 07034943575.
