Nigeria’s upstream regulator has earmarked 61.9 million barrels of crude for local refineries in the first quarter of 2026, even as actual deliveries fell far short of expectations.
Figures released on Tuesday by the Nigerian Upstream Petroleum Regulatory Commission (NUPRC) show that the volume allocated under the Domestic Crude Supply Obligation (DCSO) trailed the 68.7 million barrels put forward by producers during the same period.
Despite the allocations, only 28.5 million barrels eventually reached domestic refiners, leaving a wide gulf between promise and performance. This translates to a conversion rate hovering between 36 and 46 per cent for the quarter under review.
“A breakdown of the DCSO month by month reveals that in the month of January, following consultations with stakeholders, including crude oil producers, the Commission mandated producers to supply 22.6 million barrels to the local refiners.
“Producers exceeded expectations, offering 25.3 million barrels, representing a rise of 11.9 per cent, or an additional 2.7 million barrels, in the month.
“However, 9.2 million barrels were ultimately supplied to local refiners.
“In February, the Commission, in discharging its DCSO, allocated 20.5 million barrels to local refineries, but producers offered slightly less at 19.8 million barrels, missing the target by 700,000 barrels.
“Actual supply was down at 9.1 million barrels,” it said.
Data for March pointed to a slight uptick, with deliveries climbing to 10.1 million barrels, compared to 9.2 million barrels in January and 9.1 million barrels in February.
During that month, allocations stood at 18.8 million barrels, while producers tabled a higher 23.6 million barrels, overshooting by 4.8 million barrels, or 25.5 per cent.
The yawning gap between volumes offered and barrels delivered was largely pinned on pricing mismatches between oil producers and domestic refiners. The framework, the commission noted, runs on a “willing buyer, willing seller” principle, which continues to dictate how deals are struck.
“In spite of these developments, the Commission reaffirms its commitment to achieving the government’s objective of energy sufficiency.
“Leveraging the framework of the PIA, 2021, the Commission aims to sustain recent gains in crude oil production while continuously refining the DCSO methodology to enhance transparency, efficiency, ensuring that local refineries are supplied as committed,” it said.
