The Presidential election this Saturday is set to be one with very high stakes and possible twists and turns. The election will certainly be highly competitive more so when juxtaposed with the fact that it is a ‘Presidential fresh term’ election after President Buhari’s two terms.
Obviously, the hugely unpopular Naira redesign policy will affect voter participation hence a quite significant voter apathy should be expected. People are disenchanted with the cash crunch just as some voters may have no cash to use as transport fare to their polling booths in cases of long proximity. Many voters are disenchanted with memories of dashed hopes in the last 24 years of Nigeria’s latest adventure as a democracy. These ‘undecided voters’ will simply shrug off and say ‘why should I bother to vote? Do the politicians really care about me? The result will be voter apathy. Voter participation is projected to be 55%.
The despised Naira redesign policy may likely affect the chances of the ruling APC but may not upgrade the fortunes of the PDP, Labour or the NNPP in the Presidential election just as results of the Presidential election will decide the outcome of the Gubernatorial election in most states through the momentous ‘swing syndrome.
The historical influence of state governors in elections in Nigeria is a huge factor in determining the outcome of the Presidential election. The state governors hold the resources and have mastered the art of swinging votes in their favour. They will find their ways even with the Naira redesign policy and the bimordal voter accreditation system (BVAS) both of which are meant to check election rigging. There will be almost a full commercialisation of the votes as people are cash-strapped. Candidates that can offer the scarce new Naira notes will get a hearing from the voters. Other ingredients for vote buying will be rice and textiles. Some candidates may offer foreign currency, the US dollar and French CFA to lure voters in place of the scarce new Naira notes.
Tribal sentiments have always been a factor in Nigerian politics and elections. The 2023 Presidential elections will not be different. The candidates are likely going to make more impact in their geopolitical cum comfort zones than they will in others.
REGISTERED VOTERS
According to the independent national electoral commission (INEC), the total number of registered voters in Nigeria is 93,469,008. This number is spread across the 6 geopotical zones as follows:
North- West : 22,672,373
South -West : 18,332,191
North – Central: 15,680,438
South – South : 15,299,374
North-East: 12,820,363
South – East: 11,498,277
STATES WITH THE HIGHEST NUMBER OF REGISTERED VOTERS
Lagos, Kano and Kaduna (All APC controlled) have the highest number of registered voters as follows:
Lagos: 7,060,195
Kano: 5,921,370
Kaduna: 4,335,208.
The states (including FCT) with the least number of registered voters are as follows:
Bayelsa: 1,056,862
Yobe: 1,485,146
FCT: 1,570,307;
Gombe: 1,575,794
Ebonyi: 1,597,646
2-HORSE RACE WITH 2 OUTSIDERS
Clearly, the 2023 Presidential election is a straight 2-horse race with Asiwaju Bola Ahmed Tinubu of the APC and Waziri Atiku Abubakar of the PDP. Mr Peter Obi of the Labour Party and Engineer Rabiu Musa Kwankwaso of the NNPP will play as outsiders but any of the two major contenders Asiwaju or Atiku that can strike a last-minute alliance with any or both of them will be at an advantage.
HOW THE 4 CANDIDATES WILL FARE IN EACH STATE:
As it stands, for Asiwaju Bola Tinubu to win the Presidential election, he has to secure the axiomatic block votes of the South – West and eat into the votes of the North East, North – Central and the North – West (This is highly likely).
For Waziri Atiku Abubakar to win the Presidential election, he has to secure the votes in the North and eat into the votes of the South – West (Which is highly unlikely).
Peter Obi will eat into Atiku’s votes in the South – East and some of the mega Lagos votes so he will be the proverbial dark horse and spoiler for Atiku. Mr Obi is not likely going to spoil Asiwaju’s chances as much as he will Atiku’s. As a matter of fact, after the election, Atiku’s supporters will say ‘How we wish Obi didn’t contest for the the Presidency. How we wish that Obi was Atiku’s running mate in the election. So will Obi’s supporters, probably. Indeed, Obi will only take away Atiku’s votes without doing anything with it really. All the same, Mr Oni had done well by starting a movement that can potentially usher in a new, youthful and more vibrant leadership for Nigeria in the future. On the other hand, there is the issue of funds which Atiku’s running mate has brought to the table. This is another factor which made him (Okowa) the top choice as Atiku’s running mate.
THE 25% FACTOR.
The constitution of the federal republic of Nigeria 1999 (as amended) is clear in section 134 that to emerge the winner, a Presidential candidate must not only score the highest number of popular votes but must also score the required 25% of the votes in two-thirds spread of the 36 states of the federation and FCT (at least 24 states and the FCT).
The relevant section 134 of the constitution is clear, explicit and unambiguous that:
‘Where there are more than two presidential candidates, for a presidential candidate to be declared duly elected, he must secure the highest number of votes cast at the election; and not less than a quarter of the votes cast at the election in each of at least two thirds of all the states in the federation and the Federal Capital Territory, Abuja’
Based on this provision, having the highest number of votes, often referred to as popular votes in the election is not enough to win outright. The spread of votes is also required. In the event that more than one candidate garners the 25% of the votes in at least 24 states and the FCT, the candidate with the highest number of votes wins the election even if it is by a single vote. If none of the candidates scores the required 25% of the votes in the two-third spread, there will be a run-off between the two leading candidates. Some of the candidates are projected to score the mandatory 25% of the votes so a run-off is highly unlikely.
Below is the projected performance of each of the 4 leading candidates in the states and the FCT:
SOUTH -EAST GEOPOLITICAL ZONE
Mr Peter Obi will win in this zone but the PDP will make an appreciable impact. Influence of state governors in this zone may not sway the votes in their favour as the people of the South – East are upbeat and want to send a message. The PDP controls 2 states, APC 2 and APGA 1 in this zone.
Abia – Obi will win it (Atiku to score 25%)
Enugu – Obi (Atiku to score 25%)
Anambra – Obi (Atiku to score 25%}
Ebonyi – Tinubu (Obi & Atiku to score 25% each)
Imo – Obi (Tinubu and Atiku to score 25% each)
Popular Votes: Mr Peter Obi will win the popular votes in the South – East by at least 60% of the votes. Atiku 25% and Tinubu 15%.
NORTH – EAST:
A very tight zone in which the PDP and APC have almost equal chances of winning hence it is somewhat a swing zone.
The PDP and APC have 3 state governors each in this zone.
Adamawa – Atiku will win it (Tinubu to score 25%)
Bauchi – Atiku (Tinubu and Kwankwaso to score 25%)
Gombe – Tinubu (Atiku and Kwankwaso to score 25%)
Taraba – Atiku (Obi to Score 25%).
Yobe – Tinubu (Atiku to score 25%)
Borno- Tinubu (Atiku to score 25%).
Popular Votes: Atiku will win the popular votes in the North – East by 50% Tinubu 45% and Obi 5%.
SOUTH – SOUTH:
This is a typical PDP territory but Obi will eat into Atiku’s votes in this zone. The projection is as follows:
Edo- Atiku (Obi and Tinubu will score 25%)
Delta- Atiku (Obi will score 25%).
Rivers- Atiku (Tinubu and Obi will score 25%).
Cross River- Atiku (Tinubu and Obi will score 25%).
Akwa Ibom- Atiku (Obi will score 25%).
Bayelsa- Atiku (Obi will score 25%).
Popular Votes: Atiku will win the zone’s popular votes by 60%, Obi 25% and Tinubu 15%.
NORTH – CENTRAL:
The APC controls 5 of the 6 states in this zone but the PDP will make a good showing. The Fulani herders-farmers clashes could work against the fortunes of the APC in this zone particularly in Benue state.
The Labour Party will make a dramatic incursion into Benue and Plateau states.
Kogi – Tinubu (Atiku will score 25%).
Kwara- Tinubu (Atiku will score 25%)
Niger- Tinubu (Atiku will score 25%)
Benue – Obi (Atiku will score 25%).
Plateau- Tinubu (Obi and Atiku will score 25%).
Nassarawa- Tinubu (Atiku will score 25%).
SOUTH – WEST:
This is the only region likely to vote enmasse axiomatically in one direction and give block votes to a single candidate, Tinubu.
Lagos, the state with the highest number of registered voters, is crucial in this election and Tinubu will smile away with at least 4 million votes from this state. The two states in this zone that Atiku may likely score 25% are Ondo and Osun.
Ondo- Tinubu (Atiku will score 25%)
Oyo – Tinubu (Atiku will score 25%)
Ogun – Tinubu
Osun- Tinubu (Atiku will score 25%)
Ekiti – Tinubu
Lagos- Tinubu (Obi will score 25%).
Popular votes: Tinubu will win 75% of the votes in this zone. Obi will score 10% while Atiku will score 15%. This zone will be the backbone of Tinubu’s quest to be the next President of Nigeria. A highly informed zone politically, it also has the tendency to move and vote in a particular direction enmasse when the chips are down ala this Saturday.
NORTH – WEST:
The North – West could well be the ‘deciding zone’ of the outcome of the 2023 Presidential election. The zone has the highest number of registered voters: 22,672,373
For a candidate to win Nigeria’s Presidency, he/she must win the North – West or at least make a good showing in the zone.
The APC has 6 out of the 7 state governors in this zone while the PDP has only 1. Despite this clear advantage for the APC, the factor of regional cum tribal politics that could play out in the South – West may also play out in the North – West. Moreover, this region is currently under siege by bandits resulting in a very high state of insecurity and instability. The level of disenchantment about the APC is very high in this zone. Kano state in particular, is critical to the emergence of any of the candidates as the next President of Nigeria. There will be surprises in Kaduna and Katsina states where the PDP is projected to make a very good showing.
Sokoto- Tinubu to win (Atiku to score 25%)
Kebbi- Atiku (Tinubu to score 25%)
Zamfara- Atiku (Tinubu to score 25%).
Jigawa- Tinubu (Atiku to score 25%).
Katsina- Atiku (Tinubu to score 25%).
Kaduna- Atiku (Tinubu will score 25%).
Kano- Kwankwaso (Tinubu and Atiku will both score 25%)
FCT – Atiku (Tinubu and Obi to score 25%).
Popular votes: Tinubu will win the popular votes but with a slim margin. He is projected to win 49% of the votes while Atiku gets 45%. Kwankwaso will win 5% of the votes. Obi 1%.
A SUMMARY OF THE PROJECTION:
POPULAR VOTES:
Based on the analysis presented above, the candidates will win in the states as follows:
TINUBU: Lagos, Osun, Ondo, Oyo, Ekiti, Ogun, Sokoto, Jigawa, Kogi, Kwara, Nassarawa, Niger, Plateau, Borno, Yobe, Gombe, Ebonyi,
17 States
ATIKU: Adamawa, Bauchi, Taraba, Edo, Delta, Cross River, Akwa Ibom, Rivers, Bayelsa, Katsina, Kaduna, Kebbi, Zamfara, FCT.
13 states and FCT.
Obi – Enugu, Imo, Anambra, Abia, Benue
5 states.
Kwankwaso – Kano
1 state.
25% OF THE VOTES
The candidates are projected to score the mandatory 25% of the votes in the states as follows:
Tinubu: Sokoto, Zamfara, Kebbi, Jigawa, Kano, Katsina, Kaduna, Osun, Ogun, Ondo, Oyo, Ekiti, Lagos, Kogi, Nassarawa, Plateau, Niger, Kwara, Imo, Ebonyi, Adamawa, Bauchi, Gombe, Yobe, Borno. Rivers, Cross River. FCT.
27 states and FCT.
Atiku: Enugu, Ebonyi, Anambra, Imo, Abia, Adamawa, Bauchi, Borno, Taraba, Gombe. Yobe, Edo, Delta, Rivers, Akwa Ibom, Cross River, Bayelsa, Kogi, Kwara, Benue, Plateau, Nassarawa, Niger, Ondo, Oyo, Osun, Sokoto, Kebbi, Zamfara, Jigawa, Katsina, Kano, Kaduna, FCT
33 states and FCT.
Obi- Enugu, Anambra, Abia, Imo, Ebonyi, Benue, Taraba, Taraba, Edo, Delta, Akwa Ibom, Bayelsa, Rivers, Cross River. Benue, Plateau , Lagos, FCT
17 states and FCT
Kwankwaso – Kano, Gombe, Bauchi
3 states.
HOW OBI WILL HELP TINUBU WIN THE PRESIDENCY
Mr Peter Obi has already eaten into Waziri Atiku’s strong- hold in the South – East. More than 70% of the votes in the South – East will surely have been in the kitty for Atiku if Peter Obi is not contesting for President.
Without Peter Obi on the ballot, Atiku would have been the next President of Nigeria.
Be that as it may, Peter Obi’s votes in the South -East will not be wasted even though he is not winning the election for lack of spread. The man Peter Obi has single-handedly created a movement which if sustained, could potentially bring change to Nigeria in the years to come either through Peter Obi or someone else with his (Obi’s) personality and mentality. Obi has started a journey which the young generation should build upon.
For Kwankwaso, his likely win in Kano in the Presidential election will build momentum and help his party, the NNPP immensely to win the gubernatorial election on March 11 2023.
Conclusion:
Asiwaju Bola Tinubu is projected to win the 2023 Presidential election courtesy of the huge votes he will score from the South – West particularly in Lagos state where he is projected to score more than 4 million votes. This added to his likely good showing in the North – West will win the election for Asiwaju.
Waziri Atiku Abubakar is projected to have a better spread of votes as he will gain 25% of the votes in 33 states and the FCT as against Asiwaju’s 27 states and the FCT.
Both Asiwaju and Atiku will score the mandatory 25% of the votes in two-third of the states in the federation so there will not be a run-off but Asiwaju is projected to win the popular votes as follows:
Asiwaju 46%
Atiku 39%
Obi 11%
Kwankwaso 4%.
