Global cocoa prices have surged to their highest level in nearly six months as heavy rainfall across Nigeria, Ghana and Ivory Coast raises fresh concerns over production and supply. After rising almost 40 percent in the previous four weeks, September 2026 cocoa futures on the ICE exchange reached $6,366 per metric tonne on July 10.Â
Persistent rain across West Africa has disrupted cocoa-growing areas, slowed the transfer of harvested pods, and raised concerns about black pod disease—a fungal disease that can destroy cocoa crops, The News Chronicle reports.
Traders are getting increasingly concerned that the 2026 and 2027 seasons’ production will be greatly lowered by weather patterns.
Industry projections indicate Ivory Coast’s next crop could come in below expectations, and Nigeria’s cocoa output is already expected to drop by about 11% from the previous cycle. Predictions of a potential strong El Niño towards the end of the season have fueled fears about future harvests.
Analysts project cocoa prices to stay between $5,000 and $7,000 per metric tonne throughout the third quarter of 2026 as markets follow crop conditions and evaluate the overall impact of weather-related disruptions in the major cocoa-producing countries worldwide.
