Renowned law professor and former Chairman of the National Human Rights Commission (NHRC), Chidi Odinkalu, has dismissed claims in some quarters that the 2027 general elections will mark the end of Nigeria as a nation, describing such assertions as “more of a hyperbole than the truth.”
Odinkalu said the narrative merely reflects what he described as the dark omens surrounding the country’s political climate and the alleged desire of the current administration to prevent the conduct of competitive elections.
In a recent interview posted on his official X page and titled “Third Term Agenda: The Plot Beyond 2027,” Odinkalu suggested that Nigerians should prepare for the possibility of a third-term agenda beyond 2027.
According to him, his concerns stem from what he described as the “manifest desire” of the current administration to prevent candidates from participating in elections through what he called artificial and manufactured excuses, before having the incumbent declared unopposed.
“President Tinubu has not done all of this just for four years, or just for another four years. There will be a third term,” Odinkalu said. “Anybody who is doubting it is not reading the evidence.”
He added that he hoped to be proved wrong.
“I wish I am very wrong. I don’t wish it on the country. They’ve voted quite significant sums to fund the election petition system. So they also control significant political patronage and judicial patronage. They control INEC; they control the judiciary; they are building mansions for judges. These things are not donations. There is going to be payback.”
Odinkalu lamented that the responsibility for determining election winners had shifted from voters to the judiciary, adding that until that responsibility is returned to the electorate, democracy in Nigeria would remain nothing more than civilian rule.
He also expressed concerns about the credibility of Nigeria’s electoral system, saying he does not believe the Independent National Electoral Commission (INEC), under its current leadership, can conduct a credible election in 2027.
Although he recalled publicly commending the current INEC Chairman, Joash Amupitan, when he was appointed, Odinkalu said recent developments under his leadership do not reflect someone committed to building a credible electoral institution.
“I do not believe that INEC under the current leadership of my brother and friend, Professor Joash Amupitan, can conduct a credible election in Nigeria in 2027,” Odinkalu said. “I say that with a lot of pain in my heart.
“As a leader trying to build a credible institution, you’ve got to be firm about what your ideals are. It does not mean you will achieve those ideals on day one, but you must have processes that continue to be refined in pursuit of those ideals.
“INEC conducted a sham of the FCT elections under Amupitan, and he spoke of the exercise as though it was a credible election.
“A credible INEC chairman would have admitted that there were things that happened which should not have happened and instituted processes of learning and inquiry to ensure they do not happen again.
“If you cannot ensure credibility in elections across the six area councils of the FCT, how can you conduct elections at the national level? So that is my worry at the moment. I’ve got to say I do not have the confidence that INEC under the current leadership can produce anything remotely resembling a credible election.”
Odinkalu, a professor at Tufts University, contrasted the current INEC leadership with that of former chairman Attahiru Jega.
He argued that litigation arising from elections declined during Jega’s tenure, noting that the percentage of contested seats challenged in court dropped from about 87 percent in 2007, before Jega assumed office, to 51 percent in 2011 and 43 percent in 2015.
By contrast, he said that after Jega left office, 56 percent of seats were challenged in court following the 2019 general elections, while the figure rose to 82.5 percent after the 2023 elections under the leadership of former INEC Chairman, Mahmood Yakubu.
