I stumbled on a video circulating on social media showing an overwhelming crowd of Kwara indigenes celebrating the Eid Kabir festival with the former governor, senator and political godfather, Dr Bukola Saraki, in a carnival-like atmosphere filled with excitement, dancing and loud chants in Yoruba repeatedly invoking the PDP. What exactly the crowd meant by the chants remained unclear, yet the symbolism was unmistakable: a dramatic return of political affection toward a man once rejected with unusual hostility.
The sheer number of ordinary citizens surrounding Saraki in solidarity and celebration instantly reminded me of another political season entirely different in mood and meaning. It brought back memories of the turbulent years around 2014 and 2015 when the same political figure became the central target of public anger during the famous “O to ge” political uprising in Kwara State. “O to ge,” meaning “Enough is enough,” was more than a slogan; it became a social movement, a collective psychological revolt against what many perceived as the overconcentration of power within one political family.
At that period, grassroots resentment deepened around the belief that Kwara had become a “one-family state,” where political authority appeared permanently tied to the Saraki dynasty. I vividly remember reports widely circulated at the time that PDP rallies in Kwara were repeatedly disrupted by hostile crowds. In places like Ilorin, Offa and Ekiti, party officials were allegedly pelted with stones, sachets of water and insults. The PDP, once feared and dominant, suddenly looked vulnerable and disconnected from the streets. “Pelted” became a recurring word in local political discourse, symbolising the collapse of a once powerful emotional bond between the people and the political establishment.
That political rebellion eventually culminated in the removal of the Saraki structure from power in 2019, including the defeat of his political machinery and the eclipse of the long-standing dynasty associated with both him and former governor Abdulfatah Ahmed. Yet what makes politics endlessly fascinating is how quickly identities mutate. The same Saraki and the same PDP once portrayed as symbols of political oppression are now gradually re-emerging in the public imagination as possible redeemers. Outside power, they appear to have acquired a renewed identity, fresh sympathy and revived political goodwill.
This recurring transformation reflects one of the most enduring characteristics of Nigerian politics: the cyclical construction of heroes and villains. Political actors are rarely permanently loved or hated. Rather, they oscillate between both identities depending on prevailing emotions, economic realities, propaganda, fatigue and public expectations. Political psychologists describe this phenomenon through the “frustration-aggression and hope-renewal cycle,” where citizens project their anger on incumbents during periods of hardship but later romanticise former leaders once nostalgia, disappointment and comparison set in. In essence, absence sometimes functions as political rehabilitation.
The French sociologist Maurice Halbwachs, known for his theory of collective memory, argued that societies reconstruct memories not exactly as events happened but in ways that serve present emotional and social needs. This appears strikingly applicable to Nigerian politics. The negative memories associated with political dynasties gradually fade while positive memories become amplified. Yesterday’s oppressor suddenly becomes today’s experienced statesman. The same political structure once condemned as a “dynasty” can later be reframed as a stabilising force or even a “messiah” needed to rescue the people from present disappointment.
It is therefore unsurprising that many people now emphasise the philanthropic and political legacy of Saraki’s father, the legendary Dr Abubakar Olusola Saraki, popularly called “Oloye.” He was widely regarded as the undisputed political kingmaker of Kwara State, a man said to have influenced or anointed almost every civilian governor in the state’s political history. From Adamu Atta under the NPN between 1979 and 1983, to Cornelius Adebayo under the UPN in 1983, Mohammed Lawal under the ANPP from 1999 to 2003, Bukola Saraki himself under the PDP from 2003 to 2011, and Mohammed Shaaba Lafiagi during the aborted Third Republic, Oloye’s political fingerprints remained deeply embedded in Kwara politics.
Beyond Kwara, he was also believed to have supported or influenced governors in other northern states, much like the way President Bola Ahmed Tinubu is perceived today as a regional political strategist. Thus, one side of the Saraki story projects philanthropy, mentorship, political generosity and empowerment. Supporters evoke emotions of gratitude, loyalty and admiration toward a family believed to have “made many people who they are today.”
Yet the other side of the same story evokes entirely different emotions. Critics interpret the dynasty as oligarchic dominance disguised as philanthropy. Questions emerge: Why must one family perpetually determine the political future of millions? Can philanthropy genuinely be separated from political control? Is distributing resources acquired through state power true generosity or merely recycling public wealth back to the people in symbolic portions? This tension captures the paradox of political legitimacy in Nigeria: the same actions capable of producing admiration can simultaneously produce resentment.
Consequently, to be a hero or villain in Nigeria is often less about absolute morality and more about narrative timing, emotional climate and political positioning. Reputation itself becomes fluid, negotiated and reconstructed through selective storytelling. Political branding therefore depends not only on actions but on which side of those actions society chooses to magnify at a particular historical moment.
Another fascinating dimension of Bukola Saraki’s double identities emerges from geography and ethnic politics. By virtue of location, Kwara State belongs to the North Central region, making Saraki politically useful as a northern minority figure during national power negotiations. Although he is ethnically Yoruba, his northern identity often becomes strategically emphasised when discussing inclusion, zoning and power sharing at the national level. It was this broader North Central inclusion argument that partly aided his father’s rise to the Senate presidency decades ago.
Ironically however, Nigerian politics often reveals a contradiction where politicians advocate inclusion, fairness and federal balance at the national level when they are disadvantaged, yet promote dominance and exclusion in their home territories where they enjoy demographic advantage. This contradiction appears increasingly visible in contemporary Kwara politics ahead of 2027.
Emerging political reports suggest that Dr Bukola Saraki may have settled for Engineer Kale Kawu from Kwara Central as the preferred PDP governorship candidate through consensus arrangements. If true, critics argue that this reflects the same pattern of regional dominance that contradicts Saraki’s broader national rhetoric about fairness and inclusion.
Recently, Saraki publicly ruled himself out of the 2027 presidential race, insisting that the South should complete eight years in power following the election of President Bola Tinubu in 2023. He admitted he still possesses presidential ambition but insisted that fairness and PDP zoning arrangements required respecting southern continuity. He also defended his support for Atiku Abubakar in 2023 by arguing that the PDP had at the time opened the contest to all regions.
Beyond national politics, Saraki has criticised the current administration in Kwara State, accusing it of poor governance, insecurity and worsening hardship. According to him, the rise in insecurity occurred because the government “took its eye off the ball,” while insisting that the PDP offers better alternatives for governance.
Yet critics see contradiction in simultaneously projecting inclusion nationally while allegedly reinforcing dominance locally. This is where the debate over Saraki’s “double identities” becomes politically intriguing. On one hand, he appears as a pan-Nigerian advocate of fairness and zoning at the federal level. On the other hand, opponents accuse him of sustaining regional hegemony within Kwara politics.
The irony becomes even more striking considering Saraki’s own complicated identity position. As a Muslim Yoruba politician from the North Central, he occupies a delicate political space. In the South West, he can be viewed as an outsider intruding into another regional entitlement. In the North, he may still face suspicion as a Yoruba man despite sharing northern political interests. In many ways, he embodies what political theorists call “dual minority consciousness”, existing between competing political identities without being fully embraced by either.
For that reason, many expected Saraki to become more sensitive toward inclusion and minority representation, especially within Kwara State itself. Instead, critics argue that the alleged preference for another Kwara Central candidate after Governor Abdulrahman Abdulrazaq completes eight years reinforces perceptions of exclusion against Kwara North.
Kwara State itself remains politically divided into three senatorial zones: Kwara North, Kwara Central and Kwara South. Kwara North, largely non-Yoruba speaking, comprises Baruten, Edu, Patigi, Kaiama and Moro local governments and accounts for roughly 32 percent of the population. Kwara Central, dominated by the Ilorin emirate axis, consists of Asa, Ilorin West, Ilorin East and Ilorin South with approximately 45 percent of the population. Kwara South, mainly Yoruba-speaking, comprises Offa, Oyun, Ifelodun, Irepodun, Ekiti, Isin and Oke-Ero with around 26 percent.
Historically, Kwara Central has produced the highest number of governors, followed by Kwara South, while Kwara North has produced only one governor, Mohammed Shaaba Lafiagi, who served briefly during the aborted Third Republic between 1992 and 1993. The current governor, Abdulrahman Abdulrazaq, is also from Kwara Central and would complete eight years in office by 2027.
It is therefore politically fascinating, and to some critics contradictory, that a politician like Bukola Saraki who frequently projects pan-Nigerian ideals of fairness, inclusion and zoning at the national level could allegedly support another governorship candidate from Kwara Central despite growing agitation for power shift to other zones. That contradiction is what makes the Saraki phenomenon intellectually compelling: a political figure simultaneously celebrated as a bridge-builder and criticised as a hegemonic strategist depending on which identity the moment chooses to remember.
Bagudu can be reached via bagudumohammed15197@gmail.com or 07034943575.
