Ahead of the 2027 general elections, renowned Nigerian-American Professor of Journalism, Farooq Kperogi, has argued that the economic hardship under President Bola Tinubu’s administration could ultimately become a political advantage for the ruling party.
Speaking on the podcast Conversations with Prof. Jideofor Adibe, Kperogi said some critics believe the government’s controversial economic reforms have left many Nigerians so impoverished that they may become vulnerable to financial inducements during elections.
The influential columnist lamented what he described as the tendency of Nigeria’s political system to exploit the desperation of poor citizens while unfairly blaming them for accepting money from politicians.
“We like to emotionally blackmail poor people for collecting money to vote for politicians.
“That comes from a position of privilege. Many of these people are so poor that if you offer them money and ask for their voter’s card in exchange for ₦20,000, they will surrender it.
“They haven’t eaten in days, yet people expect them to reject immediate relief for promises of a better future.” He maintained.
According to him, the harsh economic realities facing many Nigerians could make vote-buying an even more potent tool in 2027.
“Maybe there are better candidates, but they don’t care because the pressures of the moment are greater than tomorrow’s promises. So, Tinubu has that advantage to throw money around,” he added.
Drawing a comparison with the administration of former President Muhammadu Buhari, Kperogi recalled how many ordinary Nigerians financially supported Buhari’s presidential ambition despite their own struggles, only to see little improvement in their living conditions.
“During the Buhari era, ordinary people contributed money to support him, but nothing changed. There was even the case of a Kebbi woman who donated her entire life savings to Buhari and later died in penury,” he said.
Kperogi further cautioned against assuming that growing dissatisfaction with Tinubu in Northern Nigeria would automatically translate into electoral defeat for the President.
“I don’t make the leap that discontent with Tinubu in the North will necessarily mean he loses the region. I don’t know whether the North will vote for him in 2027, but if they do, I won’t be surprised because they would be given money,” he stated.
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While acknowledging that the current political mood in the North appears unfavorable to Tinubu, Kperogi argued that many voters see elections as the only time they directly benefit from politicians, often prioritizing immediate survival over long-term political considerations.
He also predicted that Tinubu would struggle to secure victory in the South-East, insisting that the NDC presidential candidate, Peter Obi, would retain significant support in the region and deny the president a substantial share of the vote.
On the pathways to victory for the presidential candidate of the ADC, Atiku Abubakar, and his counterpart in the National Democratic Congress, NDC Peter Obi, Prof. Farooq Kperogi said both candidates face distinct but surmountable challenges ahead of the 2027 polls.
The Kwara-born media icon argued that Atiku’s best chance would have been a coalition with Obi, though he noted that age, political dynamics, and constitutional constraints make such a pairing unlikely.
He added that Atiku would need strong backing from the Christian North and the South-East to remain competitive in 2027, adding that despite winning Osun in 2023, the next election would be significantly tougher for him.
For Obi, the prolific writer said the former Anambra State governor remains uniquely acceptable to many including Southern minorities outside the South-East and still enjoys strong support among Northern Christians, even as Tinubu’s appointments and overtures have eased some of that bloc’s grievances.
He, however, identified the North-West as Obi’s biggest hurdle, emphasizing that the influence of Rabiu Kwankwaso as Obi’s running mate could ultimately help bridge the gap.
Still, he cautioned that resistance from elements within the Kwankwasiyya movement, particularly its criticism of northern political symbols, could risk alienating wider northern support for Obi.
