I’ve been pondering an argument about the 2027 presidential election that it could help settle. Both ADC and NDC currently seem to be on a similar footing, without solid, nationwide structures or established foot soldiers.
Recall that in the last election, INEC’s official results placed Atiku second and Obi third. Analysts attribute that to PDP’s stronger political structure and the number of state governors who backed Atiku.
If Atiku and Obi emerge as the flag bearers of ADC and NDC respectively, they would be starting from a more equal position, without the advantage of sitting governors or a large bench of heavyweight politicians. This creates a unique opportunity in 2027 to reassess their true popularity on a more level playing field.
The contest is also echoing the 2023 regional pattern: Tinubu representing the South West/Yoruba, Obi the South East/Igbo, and Atiku the North/Hausa-Fulani. It risks becoming another symbolic ethnic contest for supremacy.
My suspicion is that, unlike Kwankwaso and Obi, who built their popularity largely outside existing structures, Atiku benefited significantly from PDP’s position as the second-strongest party and its numerical strength. There’s a difference between the masses identifying with a candidate and a party having a large, active membership base. It’s often party members who mobilize voters at the local level, people who are usually unwilling or reluctant without that push.
Research shows that many Nigerians, including the most vocal critics on social media, don’t turn out on election day unless mobilized. Party members with responsibilities and a stake in victory usually do more than just vote; they organize, persuade, and deliver.
The chance to contest on a level playing field could deflate the arrogance behind the belief that a single region can guarantee victory for a candidate. It forces an acknowledgment that electoral dynamics change, and history is not guaranteed to repeat itself.
Bagudu Mohammed
bagudumohammed15197@gmail.com
