As the year draws gradually to an end, it may be germane to review some of the key political events that defined the year with a view to distilling the lessons to be learnt from them. Here are some of the highlights:
INEC and the 2023 elections
Arguably the biggest political event of the year was the preparations for, and the actual conduct of the presidential and National Assembly elections as well as the Governorship and State House of Assembly elections held on 25 February and 18 March respectively. In the presidential election, the four leading candidates were Bola Tinubu of the ruling APC, (who emerged the flagbearer of the party against all odds and despite the banana peels); Atiku Abubakar of the PDP, Peter Obi of the Labour Party and Alhaji Rabiu Kwankwaso of the New Nigerian Peoples Party, NNPP.
A big issue in the run-up to the primaries of the two dominant political parties – the APC and the PDP – was a clamour that the Southern part of the country should produce the country’s next president. Within the South, both the South East (the only geopolitical zone from the South not to have produced a President of the country in this dispensation), and Bola Tinubu, who said it was his turn (Emilokan) claimed entitlement, which added fuel to the age-old rivalry between the Igbo and the Yoruba.
Another major defining features of the 2023 presidential election was the rise of former Anambra State governor, Peter Gregory Obi and his cross-party supporters known as the ‘Obidients’? Obi’s apparent acceptance across the country – driven initially by mostly non-Igbo social media influencers, celebrities and activist youths – appeared to be a pleasant surprise to a generation of Igbo youths who apparently believe that their race is hated and distrusted by other nationalities in the country on account of the Civil War and the Civil War propaganda internalized by both sides to the conflict. The Obi phenomenon was obviously bolstered by Christians who were angered by the ruling APC’s same faith (Muslim-Muslim) ticket and the possibility of a Muslim being the president of the country for 24 uninterrupted years (eight years for Buhari, potential eight years for Tinubu and another eight years when power returns to the North, most likely to a Muslim). Obi’s candidacy also benefitted from those uncomfortable with the prospect of Atiku Abubakar, a Northern Fulani Muslim, succeeding Buhari, a fellow Fulani Muslim. There were equally those who supported him on the premise that in the interest of ‘equity, justice and fair play’, someone from the South-east, should succeed Buhari. Obi’s carefully cultivated public persona – prudent, modest and empathic – coupled with his anti-establishment messaging, all helped.
In the results announced by INEC, Obi performed above the expectations of his critics, polling 6,101,533 votes – behind Atiku’s 6,984,520 and Tinubu’s 8,794,726. He won outright in 12 states (counting the FCT) – just like Atiku and Tinubu who was declared the president-elect by INEC. His Labour Party also won 40 National Assembly seats. Both Atiku Abubakar and Peter challenged the outcome of the election but the Supreme Court upheld the declaration of Tinubu as the President of the country on 26 October 2023.
The campaigns and the elections proper showed clearly that we have a long way to go in our journey to nationhood. With the weaponization of ethnicity and religion during the election, and INEC clearly underperforming despite the huge resources ploughed into the conduct of the elections, questions have been raised not just about the appropriateness of the Western model of liberal democracy for our country but also about the impact of elections on the nation-building process in the country. There are fears that with INEC’s gross underperformance in the 2023 elections, the country may have returned to the inglorious era of 2003-2007, especially with the INEC Chairman, Professor Mahmood Yakubu popularizing the lingo, “if you are not happy, go to court”, which seems to suggest that an outcome is more important than the integrity of its process.
Fuel subsidy is gone
On the Day of his inauguration on 29 May 2023, Tinubu declared that subsidy on Premium Motor Spirit (fuel) had gone. This was despite the fact that it was not part of his written speech and apparently no plan had been put in place to cushion its effects on the economy. He also shortly afterwards announced the flotation of the Naira. Some of the consequences of both measures include a huge hike in the pump price of fuel, a massive depreciation in the value of the Naira, galloping inflationary pressures and increasing hardship on citizens. The Tinubu government seems to have spent most of its time in office trying to manage the negative impact of these two apparently knee-jerk policies which were announced even before he had assembled his cabinet. Remarkably some of the measures announced to cushion the effects of these measures such as the Students Loan Scheme and Conditional Cash Transfer Scheme also appeared not to have been properly thought-through.
Return of Crude godfatherism and the mafianization of politics?
The feud between former governor of Rivers State and current Minister of Federal Capital Territory (FCT), Nyesom Wike, and his handpicked successor, Governor Siminalayi Fubara, has dominated the headlines in the last quarter of the year. The political dogfight has led to moves to impeach Governor Fubara, the decamping of 27 PDP members of the state legislature to APC, the consequent declaration of their seats vacant by a factional Speaker of the State House of Assembly loyal to Governor Fubara, the demolition of the State House of Assembly complex and President Tinubu’s mediation, with an eight-point agreement that critics argue is skewed to favour the FCT Minister.
There are fears that the audacity with which Wike is going after Fubara so soon after the elections may be a signpost of the return of the cruder form of godfatherism, known as machine politics, which characterized the early years of this cycle of liberal democracy in the country (1999-2007). This is a form of politics characterised by tight organisation and a strong centralised leadership, typically in the form of a “boss”, with the organisation/network dominating the landscape, mafia-style.
Tinubu is arguably Nigeria’s most successful political godfather, having been responsible for choosing all the governors of Lagos State since he completed his tenure as governor in 2007, and having also played a significant role in the emergence of most of the governors in the South-west and beyond. Having used the networks, he created as godfather of Lagos politics to expand his influence beyond Lagos to some other parts of the country and eventually to become the president of Nigeria, it is possible that some ambitious politicians may be thinking of replicating the Tinubu template in their domain, with the hope of using it to also achieve national political power.
With public opinion apparently overwhelming against Wike (with some also critical of Fubara’s apparent timidity and inability to man up), it cannot be ruled out that Wike may be thrown under the bus if public opinion remains heavily against him and the government feels he has become a liability to its image and survival.
Lights at the end of the tunnel
While most members of the Tinubu cabinet are lacklustre and recycled politicians, there are a few in the cabinet that really excite. These include the Minister of Information and National orientation, Mohammed Idris Malagi, who, in contrast to the propaganda-laden and cantankerous communication style of his predecessor in office, Lai Mohammed, shows remarkable finesse, courtesy respect for people’s views in his communication style even when he disagrees with those views. The same is also true of Presidential Spokesman Chief Ajuri Obari Ngelale, whose style is also a welcome relief from the combative and discourteous styles of Femi Adesina and Garba Shehu, whose modes of communication, in my opinion, did more harm than good to the Buhari government. I am however uncomfortable with the inclusion of Bayo Onanuga in the media team. Mr Onanuga, a self-confessed Yoruba irredentist who proudly declared that he is first a Yoruba man before being a Nigerian, had alongsie Femi Fani Kayode and others played very inglorious roles in the weaponization of ethnicity during the last election, especially in Lagos state.
Another source of optimism is the reported coming on stream of the Dangote refinery and the Port Harcourt Refinery – alongside promises that the country’s three other state-owned refineries will be operational by the end of 2024. If the refineries truly become operational, they will help to meet some of the domestic demands for fuel, which could in turn have beneficial impact on fuel prices and the value of the naira on the Forex markets.
Another light at the end of the tunnel is the sheer resilience and creativity of Nigerians. It is said in street lingo that while Nigeria is a tough country, Nigerians themselves are like irons who can adjust and adapt to any hardship. Though more Nigerians are slipping into the absolute poverty bracket and more are voting with their feet, the resilience and resourcefulness of Nigerians in the face of adversities remain a source of hope.
Jideofor Adibe is Professor of Political Science and International Relations at Nasarawa State University, Keffi and Extraordinary Professor of Government Studies at North Western University, Mafikeng South Africa. He is also the founder of Adonis & Abbey Publishers (www.adonis-abbey.com) and publisher of the online newspaper, The News Chronicle (www.thenews-chronicle.com). He can be reached on 0705 807 8841(Text or WhatsApp only).
