That’s the big question now. In Osun, many opposition voices were quick to praise the process and even credit President Asiwaju Bola Ahmed Tinubu, GCFR, for allowing a free and fair election when the result favored them. It was seen as proof of his democratic credentials. But the real test of consistency will come when APC wins at the federal level and in other states in 2027. If the same people who clapped in Osun turn around to call the elections rigged or question the President’s commitment to democracy just because APC wins, then it shows their praise was never about principles, only about outcomes.
The outcome of the Osun off-cycle governorship election, which returned Governor Ademola Adeleke of the Accord Party AP has suddenly turned President Bola Ahmed Tinubu, GCFR, into a darling of the opposition. Since Saturday’s result, many critics who have spent months painting the President in black colors are now singing praises of his commitment to democratic ideals. It is ironic how quickly narratives change in politics. The same voices that question his democratic credentials have forgotten, or chosen to ignore, the historical record of Asiwaju Tinubu’s sacrifices spanning over four to five decades in defense of Nigeria’s democracy.
For the record, President Tinubu was among those who went into exile after the annulment of the June 12, 1993 presidential election widely believed to have been won by the late Chief M.K.O. Abiola of blessed memory. That struggle, and many others, helped preserve democratic institutions in Nigeria at a time when it cost people their freedom, livelihood, and lives. To now see the same opposition celebrate an election conducted under his administration, while conveniently rewriting history, shows how selective political memory can be. The real test will come when it is the turn of the APC to celebrate victory under his watch. One wonders if the same headlines and commendations will hold.
Another point worth noting is that much of the wild celebration trailing the Osun result did not even originate from Osun State. Many of those jubilating are from other states, drawing inspiration that their own parties can also defeat the APC. They should, however, understand that the Ademola Adeleke story is unique. He defeated an incumbent governor in his first term, and today he is himself an incumbent who enjoys the weight of his family name and the massive social media influence of his nephew, global music star Davido, who campaigned vigorously for him with trending hashtags and posts. Osun politics is shaped by these personal, cultural, and celebrity dynamics that cannot be generalized across Nigeria.
What continues to draw attention is how some states, including my own Bauchi, have joined in the celebration without fully understanding the complexities of Osun politics. The excitement in Bauchi and elsewhere suggests a national wave against the APC, but that conclusion is premature and misleading. One election, no matter how significant, does not redefine the political temperature of the entire country, especially with the general elections still about six months away.
It is also important for the public to note that the Osun result has not diminished the APC’s popularity in several states. In fact, while the Osun election was holding, Bauchi State was witnessing a major boost for the APC. Over 150,000 decompees from the ADC, APM, PRP and other parties were formally received into the APC in the ancient town of Azare, headquarters of Katagum Local Government Area. The event was led by the leader of the party in the state, the Coordinating Minister of Health and Social Welfare, Prof. Muhammad Ali Pate, alongside the APC Gubernatorial Candidate in Bauchi State, M. A. Abubakar, SAN.
This massive defection in Bauchi shows that the APC remains a formidable force with growing grassroots acceptance. Politics is local, and what plays out in Osun does not automatically translate to Bauchi, Kano, or Lagos. As we approach 2027, the APC is consolidating through mobilization, inclusion of new members, and community engagement. The lesson from Osun is not that the APC is weak, but that democracy is competitive. And in that competition, the party is still very much in the game.
President Asiwaju Bola Ahmed Tinubu GCFR will convincingly win and garner more votes in the next election, especially in the North that continues to be his stronghold, because of the deliberate trust and inclusion his administration has built with the region. The North has seen itself reflected in key appointments, policy decisions, and direct interventions that speak to its realities. From the emirates to the markets and farms, there is a growing recognition that this is a government that listens and acts.
Traditional rulers, youth groups, and community leaders across the 19 northern states have noted the President’s consistent engagement, and that goodwill is translating into massive grassroots mobilization. The APC structures on the ground are more energized, and with the momentum from recent defections, the North is set to turn out in even larger numbers to reward a leader who has kept faith with them.
On security, the President has taken bold steps that are already changing the narrative in many parts of the North. He approved the expansion of the military through large-scale recruitment and the procurement of modern equipment to confront banditry, insurgency, and kidnapping. New forward operating bases and military units have been deployed across the North West and North Central to close gaps that existed for years.
There is also improved funding and intelligence coordination for the police, DSS, and civil defense. Beyond kinetic action, the creation of the Ministry of Livestock Development is addressing the root causes of farmer-herder clashes. Communities that were displaced are beginning to return home, and northern voters can see that this is a commander-in-chief willing to make difficult decisions to restore peace and protect lives.
The economy and agriculture are also central to why the President will earn more support in the North. His economic reforms, including subsidy removal and exchange rate unification, have freed up resources for infrastructure and social investment. For an agrarian region like the North, the Renewed Hope Agriculture Program has brought fertilizer support, dry-season farming incentives, and mechanization to millions of smallholder farmers.
The government is also establishing Special Agro-Industrial Processing Zones to add value to grains, tomatoes, and livestock, while reforms to the Anchor Borrowers’ Program and the rollout of CNG for transport are reducing costs for producers. These are not abstract policies. They are interventions that put money in the pockets of farmers and traders in Kano, Maiduguri, Sokoto, and Bauchi, and that is what will drive voter loyalty.
In healthcare and education, the administration’s record is equally compelling and directly touches northern households. Primary Health Care Centers across northern LGAs have received more funding and supplies under the expanded Basic Health Care Provision Fund, while tertiary hospitals are being upgraded. In education, the Nigerian Education Loan Fund, NELFUND, is a historic intervention.
For the first time, students from poor and middle-class families can access interest-free loans to stay in school without dropping out due to fees. This is already changing lives in the North, where school dropout rates have been high. Combined with UBEC school upgrades, teacher recruitment, and feeding programs, the President is investing in human capital in a way that previous governments only talked about. Parents see it, students feel it, and it will reflect at the ballot.
When you compare achievements, President Tinubu clearly outbrands every other candidate in the opposition. In less than three years, he has stabilized the macro-economy, increased allocations to states and local governments, launched NELFUND, expanded the social register, and attracted new foreign investment. He has also restored Nigeria’s global standing and pushed for local government autonomy.
The opposition, on the other hand, remains fragmented and lacks a coherent national plan or a unifying figure with a proven track record. Their performance in the few states they control does not match the scale of federal interventions already happening. Northern voters are practical. They will choose continuity and reform over rhetoric, and that gives the President a decisive edge.
In Bauchi State, this national momentum is being reinforced by the credibility of M. A. Abubakar, SAN, the APC Gubernatorial Candidate and former Governor of the state. He enjoys enduring popularity because Bauchi people remember his tenure for infrastructure development, civil service reforms, and prudent management of resources.
He left office with his reputation intact and has remained close to the people. Now, under the unity being built by the leader of the party in the state, the Coordinating Minister of Health and Social Welfare, Prof. Muhammad Ali Pate, the APC is experiencing its biggest growth yet, with over 150,000 decompees received into the party in Azare-Katagum. With a tested leader like M. A. Abubakar, SAN, at the helm in Bauchi and President Tinubu leading at the center, the APC is positioned not just to compete, but to convincingly return to power in Bauchi and across the North in 2027.
I truly hope the opposition will not suddenly change their position and deny President Asiwaju Bola Ahmed Tinubu, GCFR, the credit he deserves as a democrat once the APC is declared winner in the general elections and subsequently in the states. We have already seen it in Osun, where the same voices that spent months criticizing the President rushed to hail the process because the result favored them.
That kind of selective praise exposes the hypocrisy in our politics. If they could acknowledge his commitment to free and fair elections when it was AP’s Ademola Adeleke that won, then fairness demands they extend that same recognition when it is the APC that triumphs across the country. Democracy cannot be judged only by who wins, but by the integrity of the process, and this administration has shown commitment to letting the people decide.
The real test will come when INEC announces APC victories at the federal and state levels. If the opposition then turns around to call the elections rigged or the President undemocratic, it will only confirm that their praise was never about democracy, but about convenience. Nigerians are watching, and they remember. President Tinubu’s history speaks for itself, from the June 12 struggle to exile and decades of defending democratic institutions. That record does not change with election results.
The North and other regions are already aligning with the APC because of visible interventions in security, economy, agriculture, health, and education, and because of credible candidates like M. A. Abubakar, SAN, in Bauchi. So when victory comes, I hope the opposition will be consistent and give the President his due as the democrat he has always been, rather than rewriting the narrative overnight.
Danaudi, Writes From Bauchi Via danaudicomrade@gmail.com
