The rape and violation that took place in Edo State penultimate Saturday was predictable. It has happened in Nigeria before. We are familiar with such scenarios. As a matter of fact, it was a re-enactment of what Nigerians saw and experienced in the presidential election of 2023.
Then, the Independent National Electoral Commission (INEC) violated and stepped aside its rule books in order to hand down to Nigerians an election result that did not reflect their voting pattern in that election. The commission manipulated and altered election results to suit its predetermined purpose. Nigerians shouted their voices hoarse, but the commission did not bat an eyelid. It acted deaf and dumb.
Frustrated by INEC’s defiant disposition, Nigerians sought solace elsewhere.
As an infinitely optimistic people, they turned in the direction of the judiciary. The courts, they believed, would right the wrong inflicted on them by the electoral body. But their hope turned out to be a bad dream. The courts were even more brazen and bizarre in their actions and inactions. They dashed the people’s hopes with astonishing finality. Going by the mood of the country then, the expectation was that the people would rise against the violation and injustice. Even those who perpetrated the heinous rape were not quite sure they would get away with their impunity. But nothing happened. Nigerians simply dissolved into discussion groups to analyze and lament over what had befallen them. After weeks of jeremiad, everybody retired to the quiet confines of his home. The violators had won. They swung into action with triumphant haughtiness. More than one year after, there was no consequence. Their assault on democracy has come to stay.
It was in this spirit of conquest that Edo came into play. Those who thwarted the will of Nigerians in the February 25, 2023, presidential election had an eye on Edo State. The State has not been quite receptive of the hawkish overreach of Bola Tinubu. Before he became president, he had made attempts to procure Edo as one of his catchment territories like the six states of the southwest. But it never worked. The people always reminded him that “Edo no be Lagos”. Even during his presidential run, Edo never believed in Tinubu. In fact, the Obedient Movement, the campaign powerhouse of Tinubu’s nightmare, Peter Obi, was firmly rooted in Edo.
However, having conquered the Nigerian political space through the chicanery of 2023, Tinubu needed to prove a point to Edo people. That point is that as president, he can and will conquer them by all possible means. That resolve by Tinubu and his hawks was what played out in Edo on September 21.
Having cornered Edo to its side, the Tinubu presidency is already eyeing other hot spots for its future conquest. The National Chairman of the All Progressives Congress ( APC), Abdullahi Ganduje, has said that the party will now direct its binoculars on States with impending off-cycle elections, notably, Ondo and Anambra. Ganduje said the APC would use the Edo template to win these two states, whatever that means. For Tinubu’s APC, the game plan is to take over the government houses of the greater majority of the 36 States of the Federation, a setup that will help it in no small measure to regain and retain the presidential seat in 2027. In other words, the ongoing scheme to take over as many non-APC states as possible by hook or crook is all about the presidential run of 2027. The idea is that if the ruling APC consolidates its hold on States, the bad governance that has crippled Nigeria under Tinubu will pale into insignificance when considerations about 2027 come into play.
But why are we where we are? Our response to 2023 will provide clues. As we already noted, Nigerians were too complacent to go beyond group discussions and murmurs about the democratic assault of 2023. In the same vein, the people of Edo have dispersed. The election is over. All they are doing now is to talk and murmur. It does not matter who was declared winner. The way they voted or did not vote does not matter anymore. The import of this disposition is that the hawks can always have their way while the rest of the people mope morosely. Nigerians did just that in the aftermath of the 2023 presidential election. Edo people are doing just the same over the governorship election that just held in their state. That is the Nigerian pattern. It is an attitude that the oppressor understands very well. This understanding is promoting his mission of conquest. A group of hawks are in place in Nigeria today. They are marching through the political landscape with truculent swagger. They will brook no opposition. They will be intolerant of dissent. All of this will eventuate in total state capture. When the state is captured as Tinubu and his gang are scheming, the rest of the people will be mere onlookers; in fact, imbecilic proles.
Now, the battle line is drawn. The supremacy contest is between those who are out to rape and rule Nigeria and those who want to take back their country. Victory or defeat in this contest of wills is strictly in the hands of the latter. It is either they fight back with anger and determination or capitulate to the bulldozers of the conqueror. The latter option is simply unimaginable. Its possibility will knoll the death knell for Nigeria.
But there is a snag; and this rests on the mental or emotional makeup of the typical Nigerian. Nigerians love their lives immeasurably. They cherish their comfort. Nigeria is a country where everybody wants a place in paradise. Nobody wants to die. That is why when it is time to take that decisive step that will get the oppressor out of the way, everybody takes cover. Nobody wants to be seen or identified as the leader of the pack. Even the pack itself is nameless and faceless. Nobody wants to be heard. Everybody easily dissolves into the anonymity of the crowd. In the end, rage dies and anger melts into impotent ash. That is why the oppressor rules and reigns. That is why evil thrives in Nigeria.
Having known this of and about the Nigerian, the oppressor has cashed in on this weakness. He knows that the typical Nigerian has no fighting power. That he can only bark but can hardly bite. That he will always seek for cover when push gets to a shove. The outcome of the 2023 presidential election exposed this debilitating weakness of the Nigerian. Edo 2024 has reinforced. The oppressor has succeeded yet again. Now, he is scheming for another opportunity to ride roughshod over the Nigerian. This pattern, unfortunately, has become the defining character and characteristic of our politics.
Regardless of this sad reality, Tinubu and his hawks must watch their back. Whipping distraught Nigerians into line for the purpose of their conquest scheme will be no mean task. It is laden with self-destructive possibilities.
QUOTE:
“Nigeria is a country where nobody wants to die. When it is time to take that decisive step that will get the oppressor out of the way, everybody dissolves into the anonymity of the crowd. That is why the oppressor rules and reigns.”
Pix:
Mahmood Yakubu, INEC Chairman.
