It came quietly — like a shadow at dawn.
No press conference. No warning.
Just a presidential memo dated October 21, 2025, authorizing a 15% ad-valorem import duty on petrol and diesel.
At first, it looked like another bureaucratic adjustment — until the numbers began to bite.
Petrol now sells between ₦900 and ₦1,050.
Diesel hovers between ₦1,200 and ₦1,300.
With the new duty, those figures will soon climb toward ₦1,150 and ₦1,400 respectively.
And beneath those numbers lies a truth too dangerous to ignore — this isn’t reform; it’s slow economic strangulation.
Official inflation stands at 27.3%, but on the street, it feels like 40%.
The naira limps around ₦1,350 to the dollar, and businesses that once ran on optimism now run on fumes — literally.
Take a walk through Nnewi.
A baker counts his fuel drums at dawn, knowing each litre now costs more than yesterday.
He used to bake through the night — twelve trays at a time.
Now, he bakes eight, and prays customers don’t ask why the loaves are smaller.
He won’t mention the new import duty. He’ll just smile weakly and mutter, “Things are hard.”
Meanwhile, the government calls it a move to “boost revenue” and “support local refining.”
But the Dangote Refinery, Nigeria’s great economic hope, still imports crude and struggles to stabilize production.
So, who exactly are we helping — the refiner or the refined?
This 15% duty isn’t just an economic policy. It’s a message.
A message that tells the average citizen: “You will adjust — no matter the cost.”
But here’s the flaw — you can’t build an economy by suffocating its backbone.
You can’t call it reform when factories shut down and transporters park their trucks.
You can’t expect productivity from a nation that spends its waking hours queuing for fuel it can barely afford.
Fiscal prudence should be a scalpel, not a hammer.
And leadership, at its best, knows when to stop squeezing the poor to please the powerful.
Because every economy has a breaking point — and Nigeria is dangerously close to hers.
Linus Anagboso.
Digital Solutions Consultant. Columnist. Community & Leadership Advocate.
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