The National Bureau of Statistics (NBS) has released new data indicating that the cost of food has nearly doubled over the last three years, adding to the growing burden of living for Nigerians living in rural areas.
The index, which takes November 2009 as its base month (100), emphasizes the substantial inflationary pressures that rural areas experience by highlighting a steep increasing trajectory in average food costs.
Nigerians living in rural areas saw a startling 99.22% increase in average food prices between April 2021 and April 2024. Over a three-year period, food prices have nearly doubled, underscoring the severe inflationary pressures facing Nigerians living in rural areas.
An increase in food prices like this highlights the serious financial difficulties rural households confront, as food expenses account for a large amount of household budget.
Trends in Rural Food Inflation
- The Rural CPI for food exhibited a consistent rising trend from March 2021 to April 2024. The food CPI was 419.7 in March 2021 and increased slightly to 423.7 in April 2021.
- There was a noticeable increase to 488.4 by March 2022, and the index increased even further to 497.9 by April 2022. This was a 1.94% month-over-month (M-O-M) increase and a 17.50% year-over-year (Y-O-Y) increase.
- The rural food CPI increased to 601.4 in March 2023 and 613.2 in April 2023, with Y-O-Y inflation of 23.17% and M-O-M inflation of 1.97%, indicating that the inflationary pressure persisted.
- The rural food CPI increased to 827.4 in March and peaked at 844.2 in April of 2024, indicating an intensification of the trend. This showed a significant M-O-M rise of 2.02% and a Y-O-Y increase of 37.66%.
Things To Note
The third quarter of 2023 saw a significant increase in the rural unemployment rate from 2.5% to 4.0%, according to a prior analysis from Nairametrics. This 60% increase in just three months is indicative of a worsening situation, with the rise in unemployment largely being caused by insecurity in farming areas.
The continuously unstable security environment in Nigeria’s northern states has not only increased unemployment but also significantly hindered food production, resulting in a startling increase in hunger and escalating food prices.
According to a recent report by the Lagos Commodities and Futures Exchange (LCFE), Nigeria’s economy is facing a food crisis due to rapidly growing food prices, transportation expenses, insecurity, inadequate infrastructure, and unstable foreign exchange.
According to a recent investigation by SBM Intelligence, farmers nationwide paid bandits an average of up to N100,000 in exchange for permission to cultivate, primarily in the country’s northern regions.
According to a Save the Children estimate, if excessive food inflation continues, one in six Nigerian children, or 15 million, will go hungry starting in June 2024. According to the report, there will be 25% more hungry children in June of this year than there would be in 2023, primarily due to banditry, violence, and excessive food inflation. This is 3.5 million more kids than the number from the previous year.
According to a recent poll conducted by The New Chronicles throughout several local food markets in Lagos, the cost of meals made abroad or using foreign raw materials has significantly decreased, while the cost of foods produced locally has continued to grow.
Urgent policy actions are required to mitigate the impact on rural populations resulting from the unabated rise in food costs. It is essential to develop strategies to increase food production, maintain supply chains, and manage inflation.
Additionally, in order to lessen the negative effects of rising food prices, social assistance programs for needy households should be given top priority.
