The Independent National Electoral Commission (INEC) has fixed Saturday, April 15th, 2023 as the day for the Adamawa state governorship supplementary election in 69 polling units across the state. Governor Ahmadu Umaru Fintiri is going into the supplementary election with a margin lead of 31,249 votes. Senator Aishatu Dahiru Ahmed Binani needs a miraculous miracle to dilute this margin from the 37,706 expected votes in the 69 polling units where the supplementary election will be conducted. Though, miracles, they say, do happen!
Despite the open anti-party activities she faced from some members and executives of her party, her disregard for the very important aspect of politics – collaborations with everybody and anybody, plus her failure to send an olive branch to some of the APC governorship aspirants who lost to her during the APC governorship primaries, including the indifference to her candidacy exhibited by some stakeholders of the Adamawa APC, Binani has proved a point- Binani shook Governor Fintiri in a way he never expected.
Candidate Fintiri came to the March 18 governorship election over-confident but with poor calculations and with so many off-the-shelves strategies, for instance, he thought that his 2019 bloc vote was still intact, but he was wrong- many people in the bloc-vote have realized that they’ve nothing to gain from it- it was mainly Fintiri’s ‘cousins’ and close associates who mostly enjoy the goodies meant for the bloc vote. Fintiri’s second mistake was the poor deployment of logistics – this is obvious from how he performed in the Adamawa North Senatorial District- his primary constituency- Fintiri got only 53% of votes, losing 3 of the 5 LGAs. Though, Binani also performed poorly at her central zone- she got only 45% of the total votes – winning only 3 of the 7 LGAs.
When the controversial Fufore LGA result was announced, Gov was pictured celebrating victory with his Aides, however, a few minutes later, when the final result was declared inconclusive – again Fintiri was pictured in a deflated mode. Students of politics and history should study INEC’s declaration of Adamawa 2019 and 2023 governorship elections as inconclusive relative to the man ‘ Ahamdu Umaru Fintiri’- it always brings out ‘the punctured him’. In 2019 when the election was declared inconclusive, Fintiri ran to former Vice President Atiku Abubakar, for help, and equality, in 2023, when his re-election was also declared inconclusive, Fintiri ran back to Atiku for another help. In fact, in 2019, it was former governor Boni Haruna that saved the day for Fintiri. Boni in a press conference highlighted the difference and the importance of registered voters and PVC collected, which today has become a working document for all political parties and INEC itself.
Fintiri is a man that often boasts of being a man of great political sagacity, he often claims to have retired many people or has ‘shaved’ their heads from politics, but whenever he is faced with an intricate political situation, he suddenly becomes punctured and runs to same people for help.
As earlier mentioned, Binani needs a miracle or the 8th wonder of the world to upstage Fintiri’s 31,249 votes lead from a pool of just 37,706 votes. Nevertheless, whoever wins the 2023 Adamawa governorship election, will face a big legal tussle, that’s why people were shocked when Fintiri and his convoy were seen going and coming back from Fufore LGAs, in the name of collection results to the state collation center. It is simply bizarre- when a contender in an election turns himself into the electoral and collation officer.
Politics is about interest and survival – the APC members and executive who worked against Binanai- did it to survive. For the executive to protect their seat, while for some of the stakeholders- it is about 2027 calculation, if there is an incumbent governor from the APC, the ticket is closed for 8 years. And, supporting Fintiri is also another of their calculations, if he wins, he will leave the scene after four years, thus 2027 will be free for all. For some of the big PDP stakeholders who were also indifferent to Fintiri’s candidature, they did it to remind Fintiri that, ‘big’ is ‘big’- Fintiri went to the election almost solo with his lieutenants, but he could not get an outright victory but managed an underdog-like inconclusive victory
In conclusion, Governor Fintiri has the brightest chance of coasting to victory in the April 15th supplementary election, but he’s the biggest ‘loser’ in this election- his political might has been reduced to its lowest. he now knows that going to the Senate in 2027 is not as easy as he thought, and, bringing a successor from the PDP is not in his absolute control. Another loser is the APC and some of its executives that were openly anti-party. Adamawa APC remains fragmented for some time to come- this will hunt the party in the next cycle of elections, as pay-back-time will be the order of the day in the party for many years to come. Binani on the other hand, her chance of winning the election is near zero, but she is one of the biggest winners in the election – despite little support from her party in the state and open anti-party from some party executives, she made points and strong political statements. Another winner of this election is some PDP stakeholders and the PDP itself- this election has removed them from any shackle- had it been that Fintiri had a smooth ride; won the election with a big margin effortlessly, he would attempt to ride on anybody in Adamawa politics in his second term.
Zayyad I. Muhammad writes Abuja, zaymohd@yahoo.com, 08036070980
