In this insightful interview, Dr Kelvin Kemm, a nuclear physicist and former chairman of the South African Nuclear Energy Corporation (NECSA), and current Chairman of Stratek Global, a nuclear project management company based in Pretoria, South Africa, thoroughly discusses the dynamics of energy situation, its impact on the economy and the ultimate pathway forward in South Africa.
Here are the interview excerpts:
How would you describe the level of power shortage and its impact on the economy currently in South Africa?
Dr Kelvin Kemm: South Africa has experienced a period of power shortage which has been irritating to the average citizen, but also highly damaging to the economy. Contrary to a popular belief around the world, there have not been random power failures all over the place but instead there has been a pre-programmed system of power being intentionally turned off in areas, on a rotation basis, according to a pre-determined roster.
If all generating units are running, then there is no shortage of power. But there is no longer a reserve margin left in the country, due to a failure to build new adequate baseload electricity generating units. That is where the problem lies. This is largely due to the politics of not building further coal-fired power stations to satisfy international demands. South Africa’s current problem lies with the fact that there is no longer a reserve margin on hand to absorb scheduled maintenance and random breakdowns. When a number of these coincide then the country goes into what is known locally as the Load Shedding Schedule. Depending on the severity of the shortage, the schedule goes up in stages, meaning that the scheduled switch-off periods become longer, the shortest being one hour.
Certain critical areas are exempt. But for other areas, it has been economically damaging. All sorts of industrial operations are curtailed or stopped for an hour or two at a time. Particularly hard hit have been small businesses such as restaurants, hairdressers, and such luck who have not had the money to install their own back-up power supplies.
However, on the positive side, there has now been no load shedding for two months, since a dedicated high-intensity maintenance and operations programme was embarked upon. We just hope that load shedding is now a thing of the past.
What do you see as the main problems in the power industry? Besides the country’s cabinet, has parliament also involved in discussing this?
KK: In my opinion, a major problem concerning the power problem is that far too many people think that they know what they are talking about but don’t. Since the politics of climate change intruded into society every alternate person is a self-proclaimed energy expert, but can’t tell the difference between Megawatts and Megawatt-hours.
This is true of society at large, but at times is even worse with parliamentarians worldwide, who all want to ‘save the planet’ to look good to their constituents. Some of the worst in the world are European Union politicians.
The waters are muddied even further by the extreme greens who are so intent on ‘saving future generations’ that they don’t care very much about the current generations, particularly those in Africa. It is time that this Sandal Brigade pulled their socks up.
The intrusion of wind and solar power, supposedly to Save the Planet, or save Mankind, depending on which camp the ‘saviour’ is in, has generally had a significant detrimental effect.
This has proven to be a worldwide phenomenon. But now the chickens are coming home to roost, well, in many cases, to roast, as the resulting economic damage becomes evident in many countries. Some countries are visibly sabotaging themselves, as they head towards their Armageddon. South Africa must try to not be further drawn into this mad whirlpool. Wind and solar can effectively fill certain functions in electricity provision, but providing baseload power for the engine of an economy is not one of them.
Is the energy situation better under the administration of Cyril Ramaphosa or Jacob Zuma? Can you please discuss the two periods how the power industry has been managed?
KK: Under former President Jacob Zuma, the power crisis in South Africa steadily worsened, as the authorities tried to make up their minds on which direction to follow. At the same time, they were heavily influenced by the foreign salesmen of wind and solar systems. Certain European countries had their own GDP growth in mind, as they instructed African countries to ‘save the planet’ by buying their export products.
Much financial arm-twisting has taken place, in the forms of supposedly soft loans and other inducements to ‘save mankind from the sins of the Industrial Revolution and modern day Industrialists’.
Meanwhile, the building of additional real baseload generating capacity did not take place. One very positive move under President Zuma was that he pushed for more nuclear power. However, this initiative was vehemently opposed by anti-nuclear green groups who are significantly funded by the countries exporting their own ‘green solutions’.
A Zuma-era project to build an additional 9600 MW of nuclear power was torpedoed by the anti-nuclear greens. Had they not stopped the nuclear build, we probably would never have had the load shedding.
Then President Cyril Ramaphosa deposed President Jacob Zuma. A hallmark of the tenure of President Ramaphosa has been dithering and uncertainty. The country hoped for a show of strong leadership under President Ramaphosa, but that did not materialise.
President Ramaphosa finally replaced a really weak and ineffectual Minister of Energy with the current minister, Gwede Mantashe, who promptly brought some insight to the portfolio, and immediately embarked on a new nuclear-build initiative to introduce an additional 2500 MW of nuclear. The new Minister has also doggedly stuck with his philosophy of maintaining the stance that South Africa needs to continue with coal power, and should not be bullied by the European Union and certain US interests. That is the correct stance, and the Minister needs some praise and support. He has been a breath of fresh air, in comparison to his ineffectual predecessor.
What are your expert views about “energy mix” for instance – a combination of wind, solar, hydro and nuclear power? Why nuclear is still bugged down with problems in the country?
KK: An energy mix should be implemented such that it is effective from an engineering perspective, and is also economically genuinely productive. It should not be presented as a political objective merely to keep the sandal brigade and foreign politicians happy. Sadly, in South Africa, an energy mix has largely been pursued for the wrong reasons.
South Africa needs coal, and will need it for decades to come. We cannot let children of the current generation die or miss out on modern development, to ‘save the planet’, to make EU politicians look good. Thankfully, South Africa is now advancing the nuclear agenda not only by announcing the planned building of a new large nuclear power station, but also by supporting the introduction of Small Modular Reactors.
With South Africa’s abundant sunshine, there certainly is a place for solar power. But dedicated special applications should be found which fit the economic and engineering profile of the Sun’s 24-hour path across the sky. Similarly with wind power, it is ideal for pumping water, in an area that has adequate wind, and where the highly intermittent nature of the wind’s, strength does not matter.
If, for example, South Africa decides to strengthen nuclear as additional remedy, how about nuclear safety regulations and training of staff for this?
KK: South Africa is one of the oldest nuclear countries in the world, predating all of Europe. South Africa’s nuclear power station Koeberg arrived at its 40th birthday in 2024. The 60th birthday of the Safari 1 nuclear reactor near Pretoria is 2025. South Africa is highly skilled in all aspects of nuclear power operation and training, at all levels. The country is in a position to offer nuclear training and support to all African countries and to many others around the world.
But we need to expand the Number of people being trained, because nuclear power is the future, and much more nuclear than the current 2500 MW nuclear expansion is required.
Projects like the advancement of the South African-developed HTMR-100 Small Modular Reactor should be pursued with vigour. The potential for the worldwide export of this advanced Generation IV Helium-cooled system is vast. In addition, South Africa is a world leader in the design and fabrication of the advanced TRISO fuel required for many SMR systems. South Africans have also designed and developed TRISO fuel variants for United States companies. The potential financial earnings are vast.
A number of countries have shown interest in investing in the unique South African SMR development, with a number of international visitors having visited South Africa to see for themselves. Various advanced discussions are taking place.
And financing nuclear energy?
KK: Nuclear power is not expensive. In fact, South Africa’s cheapest electricity is the nuclear electricity from Koeberg. But of course, worldwide, the Green Sandal Brigade have preached that nuclear is expensive, in an attempt to deter governments from advancing nuclear power.
Thankfully, many world leaders are now seeing the light of reason and from about 2022 there has been a steady visible movement towards nuclear power across the globe. This movement is accelerating. This is particularly true of African countries who more and more are realising that Small Modular Reactors are their path to prosperity, and are shaking off the European strangling grip of ‘sunbeams and breezes shall save you’.
African leaders are realising that they have to pursue African Solutions for Africa, using homegrown skills and competence.
Nuclear power is not expensive when you do your calculations correctly. That means taking the whole life cycle into account in calculating the true cost of electricity per kWh to the consumer. Just like buying a car, you calculate the amortisation and running cost per month over its life cycle. Why can’t intelligent citizens realise that it is the same for a nuclear reactor? It is also the same for wind and solar power which are invariably not presented to the public with their true costs. Their true costs are much higher than generally claimed.
When a sensible business case is presented then the financing of nuclear is not a problem. Many countries and financial institutions will happily finance a sensible financial model, as long as they can see past the placard-waving, slogan-shouting Sandal Brigade. Then they see the financial realities and benefits of nuclear power, plus the financial gains that they themselves can make from financing major nuclear projects.
Do you see any possible way out of the power shortage in the country? Do you think foreign players (countries) are showing interest and could help South Africa?
KK: To my mind, the way forward for South Africa is bright. We appear to be coming out of the load shedding by bringing back the serious engineering, and relegating much of the political interference, and bumbling political appointees, to the red tape bin.
We are also now on the path to additional nuclear power. The progress along this path is particularly helped by the world waking up to the reality that nuclear power is essential, for the entire planet. Bearing in mind that nuclear operations emit no noxious gases or liquids whatsoever, or even carbon dioxide, it is the perfect green solution. As well as being the sensible engineering and economic solution.
World electricity consumption doubled over the last 25 years. It will double again within the next 25 years. In fact, probably even faster because entities like big data centres, and also the advancing technology worldwide, are demanding electricity like a pack of hyenas at a fresh kill.
