Nigeria’s crude oil output is forecast to average about 1.7 million barrels per day in 2026, slightly above its OPEC quota, but the long stated goal of sustaining production above two million barrels per day remains distant.
New analysis from SBM Intelligence points to oil theft, pipeline vandalism and lingering security gaps in the Niger Delta as the main obstacles rather than limited reserves or technical capacity.
Recent gains in pipeline availability and export security have helped lift production, with output briefly climbing above 1.8 million barrels per day in mid 2025. However, those gains have proven difficult to sustain as repeated pipeline breaches trigger shutdowns, delay repairs and discourage reinvestment, particularly in onshore and shallow water fields. International oil companies have also scaled back such operations, while new offshore projects are not advancing quickly enough to offset declines.
The News Chronicle understands that Nigeria continues to lose hundreds of thousands of barrels daily to theft and vandalism, costing the economy billions of dollars each year and weakening investor confidence in the upstream sector.
Security concerns have equally shaped official projections. While authorities insist that output above two million barrels per day is achievable, analysts argue that short term military deployments alone are insufficient. Without deeper community based security models and stronger governance in oil producing areas, production recovery is expected to remain fragile, incremental and vulnerable to renewed disruptions.
