Global crude oil prices opened the week on a firm note, holding above Nigeria’s 2026 budget reference price of 64.85 dollars per barrel, supported by supply constraints and rising geopolitical tension in the Middle East.
Market data monitored on Monday showed Brent crude trading around 65.8 dollars per barrel, while United States West Texas Intermediate hovered near 61 dollars.
Although both benchmarks recorded slight intraday declines, prices remained close to their highest levels since January after last week’s rally.
Analysts attribute the market’s resilience to tightening supply conditions, particularly production losses in the United States following severe weather that disrupted output across key oil producing regions.
Concerns have also intensified around the Middle East after increased military activity raised fears of possible disruptions to major supply routes, adding a risk premium to prices.
The News Chronicle understands that the sustained price level above Nigeria’s budget benchmark offers temporary relief for fiscal planning, especially after recent fears of revenue pressure when crude briefly dipped below target levels.
Nigeria’s 2026 budget assumptions are built on a crude price of 64.85 dollars per barrel and daily production of 2.6 million barrels.
While current prices support these projections, ongoing domestic challenges such as oil theft and pipeline damage continue to pose risks to output and revenue stability.
Oil price stability remains helpful, but Nigeria’s broader fiscal outlook still depends on production discipline and global market direction.
