The Nigerian Presidency has firmly countered recent claims by outgoing African Development Bank (AfDB) President, Dr. Akinwumi Adesina, who argued that Nigerians are worse off today than they were at independence in 1960.Â
According to the Presidency, Adesina’s assertions are factually inaccurate and fail to reflect Nigeria’s broader socio-economic evolution over the past six decades.
The rebuttal came through Bayo Onanuga, Special Adviser on Information and Strategy to President Bola Tinubu. Onanuga criticized Adesina’s reliance on what he described as flawed GDP per capita comparisons. Specifically, Adesina said Nigeria’s GDP per capita in 1960 was $1,847, whereas today it stands at $824—an alarming decline suggesting worsening economic conditions. However, the Presidency dismissed this figure, insisting it does not align with historical economic records.
According to the statement, Nigeria’s total GDP in 1960 stood at approximately $4.2 billion, with a population of 44.9 million. This would increase the GDP per capita to $93, not over $1,800 as claimed. It wasn’t until the oil boom era of the 1970s and 1980s that Nigeria’s GDP and per capita income experienced significant growth, peaking temporarily in 2014 at about $3,200 following a GDP rebasing.
While Onanuga acknowledged that Nigeria’s economic path has been uneven—affected by oil price volatility, policy inconsistencies, and external shocks—he stressed that using GDP per capita in isolation to measure the nation’s progress is misleading. He noted that this metric overlooks critical development indicators such as wealth distribution, infrastructure growth, healthcare expansion, access to education, and technological advancement.
From independence in 1960, when Nigeria had under 20,000 landline telephone connections, the country now boasts over 200 million active mobile phone lines, signaling a drastic improvement in connectivity and digital inclusion. Similarly, expanding hospitals, universities, road networks, and access to clean water and electricity reflect steady, albeit imperfect, national development.
The Presidency further emphasized that economic advancement must be viewed through a multidimensional lens, particularly in Nigeria, where informal economic activity plays a huge role in livelihoods. Many small businesses and informal sector contributions are underreported in GDP statistics, skewing public perception of economic well-being.
Onanuga also took issue with what he saw as alarmist tones in Adesina’s speech, which was delivered at Chapel Hill Denham’s 20th anniversary dinner in Lagos. Adesina had warned that Nigeria was facing deeper economic challenges than acknowledged, urging structural economic reforms to shift away from overdependence on crude oil and towards a more diversified, industrialized model by 2050.
While the Presidency acknowledged some of the points raised by the AfDB President—especially around policy inefficiencies and structural weaknesses—it pushed back against the idea that Nigeria is economically regressing compared to the pre-oil era of 1960.
It noted that today’s Nigeria is a vastly more complex and globally integrated economy with a GDP at least 50 to 100 times larger than it was at independence. The administration urged analysts and commentators to adopt more nuanced approaches when evaluating Nigeria’s progress, rather than relying solely on outdated metrics or headline-grabbing comparisons.
While challenges undoubtedly remain, including inflation, unemployment, and public debt pressures, the Presidency insists that portraying Nigeria’s current state as worse than in 1960 is an oversimplification. Instead, it advocates for a balanced national narrative that recognizes past mistakes and celebrates the tangible, if uneven, strides the country has made in health, education, infrastructure, and digital inclusion.
While far from ideal, Nigeria’s economic development cannot be fairly measured by GDP per capita alone. A deeper, data-driven, and context-aware analysis offers a more accurate picture of the country’s current and future state.
