Conflict, dispute, disagreement, quarrel are inevitable in life. In fact, they can be beneficial and transformational. There’s no family, organisation and indeed community where such does not exist. Experts in conflict management claimed that the main types of conflict are intrapersonal (within an individual), interpersonal (between two or more people), intragroup (within a group), and intergroup (between different groups). The question is, how do we know a conflict is about to occur? Are there early warning signs that trouble is in the offing? When such signals or signs are picked up, do we simply dismiss them or respond promptly to prevent breakdown of law and order?
Take, for instance, in a family setting, when husband and wife start to argue, that’s a prelude to domestic violence, as the situation may escalate to fisticuffs if the argument becomes heated. To de-escalate tension, one of the spouses should either keep quiet or walk away. In a community, when rumors start to gain ground about an imminent attack by a group of people, be they miscreants or disgruntled elements, it’s time for the elders in the community or traditional and religious institutions to try to find out the truth about the looming attack and take preventive actions. That’s basic early warning and early response known as EWER in conflict studies.
Nigeria has had a fair share of conflicts ranging from intra and inter-party conflicts, herder-farmers conflict, intra and inter-religious crisis for example, the Maitasine and Boko Haram, ISWAP crisis; Separatist agitations such as IPOB and Yoruba Nation; militancy over resource control in the Niger Delta region; inter-tribal conflict such as Itsekiri, Urhobo and Ijaw conflict over Ward delineation in Warri area of Delta State and even many inter-tribal wars fought in the past among the Yoruba people as well as between the Yorubas and the Fulani jihadist. These conflicts are not going to simply disappear unless the country adopts a robust early warning and early response system to manage them.
The Niger Delta Development Commission’s Department of Dispute and Conflict Resolution on November 20, 2025 held a summit with the theme, ‘Effective Early Warning System for Conflict Prevention: A Key in Advancing the Renewed Hope Agenda for Sustainable Development in the Niger Delta Region.’ It was a galaxy of world-class resource persons who spoke at the epochal event held in Lagos. Notable among them is Professor Isaac Olawale Albert who was instrumental in the establishment of Society for Peace Studies and Practice. He was the keynote speaker. Others are Professor Adewumi Falode who is the Director, Centre for Peace and Security Studies, Lagos State University. He presented on ‘Identifying Potential Indicators of Threats to Peaceful Coexistence through Conflict Analysis’ while Dr. Temitope Bello, who is the Acting Director, Research and Development at Kola Daisi University, Ibadan, made a presentation on ‘Networking for Conflict Prevention and Dispute Resolution: Roles for Critical Stakeholders and Decision Makers’. Dr. Gbenga Gbarada who is the CEO of Dispute Resolution Academy and Dr. Bridget Osakwe, National Coordinator of West Africa Network for Peace were discussants while I was the moderator of the programme.
In his lecture, Albert urged the NDCC to urgently strengthen its conflict-prevention architecture, warning that without a functional early warning system, sustainable development in the region will remain elusive. The scholar said the theme of the summit underscores the urgent need for proactive strategies to ensure peace, stability, and inclusive development in the region. He said inter alia that “President Bola Ahmed Tinubu’s Renewed Hope Agenda is a policy framework designed to drive Nigeria’s development across various sectors, focusing on economic revitalisation, social inclusion, and improved governance. In the Niger Delta, an area historically affected by resource-based conflict, the agenda’s success depends on how well its core strategies (connecting rods) address both the root causes and the manifestations of conflict.” He asked rhetorically: Do you have an effective early warning system in the NDDC? If not, how do you intend to prevent conflict and advance sustainable development?” He added that effective early-warning structures must be community-driven and capable of triggering timely interventions.
In his opening remarks, the acting Director of DCR, Godwin Ogedegbe, said the deliberations are not only timely but essential “if we are to translate aspiration into action and protect the vulnerable, while unlocking the region’s vast potential.” Ogedegbe, who also built on the theme of the summit, highlighted that the Niger Delta remains one of the most dynamic, yet most challenged regions in Nigeria, adding that it embodies immense natural wealth, vibrant communities and a history of conflict rooted in environmental degradation, competition over resources, governance gaps, unemployment, youth restiveness and unequal access to services.
The Managing Director of the NDDC, Dr. Samuel Ogbuku, represented by his Special Adviser on Security, Ibarakumo Otobo, noted that an early warning system is very important in conflict resolution, as it signifies that “if we know our problem early enough, we will be able to proffer solution, and this is one key area the NDDC will work on. We need to know our problem; have the early signs of what might trigger conflict, and then know how to tackle it.”
While it is commendable that NDDC is thinking of improving its early warning and early response system, it is important that all security agencies in the country do likewise. There is no gainsaying that a country beleaguered by insecurity like Nigeria ought to have a robust and effective EWER system. Obviously, we don’t have such, which is why terrorists seem to be having a field day engaging in mass abduction of school children and worshippers as has recently happened in Kwara, Niger, and Kebbi States.
My takeaway from the NDDC summit is that even when there are early warning systems in place, the response must be timely and appropriate, otherwise it will be ineffectual. There is a popular saying that you don’t go to a gun battle with a kitchen knife. That will be suicidal. As earlier said, EWER system is not for high-intensity conflicts like fighting insurgents and bandits; it’s also useful in dealing with family disputes, organisational unrest, such as labour unions versus government, and communal feuds. As the saying goes, a stitch in time saves nine!
