Nigeria’s 2026 budget could come under fresh pressure after Brent crude oil prices were projected to decline to $60 per barrel before the end of the year, raising concerns about the country’s expected oil revenue.
The forecast comes as Brent, which traded as high as $115 per barrel in May, has eased to around $72 following the return of stability to global oil markets.
The News Chronicle reports that Nigeria’s 2026 budget is based on an oil benchmark of $64.85 per barrel and a daily production target of 1.84 million barrels. A further drop in crude prices, combined with lower-than-expected production, could widen the fiscal deficit, weaken foreign exchange earnings and increase the country’s reliance on borrowing.
This outlook is attributed to easing geopolitical tensions, the resumption of shipping through the Strait of Hormuz, softer demand from China and rising global oil supply.
Goldman Sachs and Morgan Stanley have also warned that the market could face an oversupply, adding to fears that lower oil prices may further strain Nigeria’s public finances and debt servicing obligations.
