His exited office after his first four-year tenure from an organized gang-up that caused his defeat in his 2019 reelection bid. Ironically, the margin between the winner and the closest runner-up was nothing to write home about. It was a small margin that could be bridged from just two polling units. But that is now part of history.
Not only that most of those who enjoyed his trust were not on the same page with him. Some were opposition moles, others were betrayers, as some lacked the capacity and operational experience required for the positions they occupied.
Some of the security personnel attached to him were overzealous, bullying everyone including responsible visitors to the governor, and even members of the state executive council were not spared, all in an effort to impress the governor that they were working.
The complete security structure of M.A Abubakar in his four-year tenure was more sycophantic and hypocritical that transformed to negative consequences on the government and his second tenure bid.
Not that M.A Abubakar was a bad or incapacitated leader, but from the onset, he made a wrong choice of aides whose behaviors in government de-marketed the administration and partly caused its second-term defeat.
He never for once nursed a grudge against the decision of the electorates against his reelection or his opponents. Instead, he accepted the verdict and opted to remain loyal to his party, All Progressives Congress (APC) and the people. He allowed those that underrated his performance and leadership capacity a breathing space not to engage in a baseless war of words or party supremacy.
Today, with just a few months to the official commencement of campaigns for the 2027 general elections, Bauchi State is already witnessing intense political maneuvering, shifting alliances, high-profile defections, and growing uncertainty. These early tremors are rapidly coalescing into what many observers describe as the most fiercely competitive, volatile and unpredictable governorship race since the return of democracy in 1999.
At the centre of the unfolding drama is M.A Abubakar SAN, the gubernatorial candidate of All Progressives Congress (APC), the strongest opposition party in the state. He emerged from a historical contentious and bitter primary election, having ultimately secured the critical endorsement of Prof Ali Pate (Minister for Health), national party leadership and president Tinubu as their most preferred candidate based on his party loyalty, quality, exposure and experience.
Following his hard fought victory at the party primary election, Abubakar immediately launched a reconciliatory offensive for urgent unity among party members preparatory to the task ahead of dislodging the incumbent party (APM) from power.
In his acceptance speech as characteristic of him, he declared that there was neither a victory nor a vanquished, pleading for understanding with all aggrieved aspirants and their influential supporters to remain committed to the victory of the party in the coming elections.
But sampled reports obtained from credible sources indicate that he has indeed intensified high level consultations with key political players across the divide in his effort to heal the bleeding wounds left by the outcome of the party primary.
However, political analysts believe that APC may eventually face its toughest electoral test in 2027 more than what it faced in 2019. The primary threat may not necessarily stem from opposition parties for their lack of capacity and cohesion, but from internal hypocrisy, betrayal, discontent and clandestine sabotage from the bitter aftermath of the party’s primary.
Few hypocritical frontline aspirants and their sundry impoverished supporters publicly expressed profound dissatisfaction with how their cash cows were pushed out. Furthermore, a wave of defections by few inconsequential party members who woefully failed to secure alternative or state tickets has generated some concern.
Compounding the internal friction, some of those inconsequential aspirants without any reasonable structure within the APC, indicated their readiness to quit the party for failing to secure its ticket while other jokers and nomads, hurriedly moved to where there is green pasture to graze on.
In the whole drama, the hurried defection of Senator Shehu Buba Umar, to the redundant Peoples Redemption Party (PRP) matters most. Not that he stands a threat to the victory of M.A Abubakar, but because he labored for nearly two years supporting the survival of APC, but sensed a humiliating defeat approaching his ambition that forced him to defect hurriedly before rendered hopeless by the provisions of the Electoral Act.
A careful look at the list of his critical supporters shows the absence of real political juggernauts, movers and shakers of the polity other than parasites and hangers-on adding no value to his journey than trading in falsehood for deceit and sycophancy. He surely presides over a council of ‘yes Sir’, ‘we are winning, ‘we are shaking the polity’ Mujaddadi is our governor etc. That’s the foolery and self-deceit ongoing in his campaign wagon!
The other aspirant, who lost the bet, Yusufu Maitama Tugga, lacked a formidable structure to be trusted to fly the APC flag for the coming battle. Some described him as too pompous, rigid and reserved. He made attempts to de-market the candidature of M.A Abubakar on the pages of newspapers after he was pushed out of the truck from the start, but was unsuccessful as most APC members had never seen any seriousness in his aspiration to support his media battle.
Then there was Bala Maijama’a Wunti who hurriedly joined the gubernatorial race after a sack from NNPCL. He was sacked by President Bola Tinubu along with Mele Kyari and Umar Ajiya. The rationale behind their sudden sack was not made public but not unconnected to suspected case of either malfeasance or the audit report that exposed non-remittance of over N210trillion to the federation account.
Whatever be the case, he showed face for the gubernatorial contest despite the absence of any political base even in his immediate Bauchi environment. He stepped into the political field with the left leg. Instead of making a sound and issue-based declaration, he chose to confirm to his audience his Wunti origin while labeling others as IDPs.
What Bala forgot to tell his patient audience was how the Wunti street he claims was founded and by who? Historical facts reveal that his parents were not among those who first settled at the Wunti he claims. His real origin is yet to be known but he is believed to be a product of migration from another state.
After his political somersault that delivered negatively on his person, he packed his bags to where he is known best, Abuja. He never returned for any reason until he was announced defeated.
Although, Bala was said to have shifted his campaign strategy to Abuja to grease the palms of those that matter in APC for the ticket, his efforts were scuttled by superior powers of those who own the APC by formation and sustenance. While nursing inflicted injuries on his tall political ambition, his disorganized campaign team in Bauchi hurriedly reached the gates of Shehu Buba of the PRP cups-in-hand begging for absorption to have some crumbs to feed on. Since then, nothing is heard of Bala Wunti’s next destination or direction. His game seems to be over.
Then there was one, Nura Manu-Soro, believed to be a contestant in the race. His first appearance was in 2023. He exhibited determination but lacked the necessary fighting skills to clinch the APC ticket. For the 2027 race, he reappeared and swiftly sent packing for not qualifying to fly the flag by APC standard. He tried to register himself as an opponent to the decision of the party, but was as usual ignored to nurse his wound in isolation.
Although M.A Abubakar has won the APC party primary, but his biggest challenge is not the incapacitated opposition parties; it is the strategic management of post primary grievances. If aggrieved APC members continue to remain outside the fold or engage in anti-party activities, there is possibility of creating massive, irreversible openings for rival parties to exploit. Undoubtedly, APC is the strongest opposition party in Bauchi State that enjoys deeply entrenched grassroots structures, but internal crises may reduce its influence at the polls unless the necessary measures are introduced early enough.
For M.A Abubakar the herculean task ahead extends far beyond mere party unity. He must also convince a highly critical electorate that he can sustain and improve upon the exiting Governor Bala’s infrastructural legacy, while simultaneously presenting a distinct, compelling vision capable of inspiring confidence among voters, disgruntled civil servants, farmers and the rapidly growing urban population.
Yet, perhaps the most potent threat to the APC journey to victory lies in the formidable emergence of Yakubu Adamu PhD as the standard bearer of the ruling party, Allied People’s Movement (APM).
Yakubu Adamu has joined the battle with tested advantage of incumbency supported by a performing governor who has printed his name on the sands of time, but the problem Adamu may encounter remains very clear.
First, he has never been known or associated with the game until his appointment as member of Bauchi State Executive Council. He is seen as a political novice who lacks the capacity to even package his very self for any election.
His second problem lies with the capacities of M.A Abubakar and Shehu Buba that he has to confront with expertise. And his ancestral zone of Bauchi North is yet to recognize and endorse his candidature as a son of the soil and their accredited representative in contest.
Finally, it is alleged that since his emergence as APM gubernatorial candidate, he remains incommunicado and keeps away from public gallery, ignoring calls from those that matter either as a strategy until when the whistle is blown for campaigns, or other reasons. Whatever be the case, he remains a strong contender armed with the power of incumbency that may not be defeated with ease. His greatest challenge may come from members of his party, APM whose most preferred candidate, Farouk Mustapha was kept out of the race.
Another problem Yakubu is facing, is his yet to embark on an aggressive interaction sessions with the people as characteristic with politicians. He may find it tough in places like Toro, Bogoro, Tafawa Balewa and Dass perceived to be the strongest holds of Shehu Buba, while M.A Abubakar may give him a running nose in the whole of Bauchi North and Central as his strongest holds.
As the political atmosphere continues to heat up across the state, complex zonal considerations are also expected to play a critical role in shaping voter behavior.
As for other elections, Sen. Bala Muhammed may deliver Bauchi South Senatorial seat to APM. Sen. Abdul Ahmed Ningi, for sure, will deliver Bauchi Central to ADC, while Ibrahim Baba Muhammed is likely to deliver Bauchi North to APC.
For the House of Representatives, APC, ADC and possibly few APM candidates may share the seats while APM and APC may take over the State House of Assembly. At the bottom of it all, it’s the decision of the electorates that will separate the fight.
Muhammad is a commentator on national issues
